The weather update for Sunday, May 30:
Météo Consult - bulletin of May 30, 2021
May 30, 2021
General situation:
This Sunday, the high at 1032 hPa centered between Newfoundland and the Azores continues to maintain a moderate and very unstable trade wind between the Canaries and the northern Antilles.
On Monday, the arrival of a disturbance over the Azores weakened the high pressure. It retracts to the north. This development causes a relaxation of the pressure gradient near the West Indian arc and a decrease in the trade winds.
On Tuesday, the high pressure rises again and shifts eastward. It pushes the disturbance southward and favors a partial strengthening of the trade winds.
On Wednesday, the high pressure continues to shift eastward and now extends along the 37 th parallel north. This new development allows the trade winds to hold over the northern West Indies.
Weather conditions at sea:
Over the past 24 hours, the speeds of the first 14 competitors at an average of 8 knots have been fairly comparable… for both northerners and southerners. This explains why the gaps have mostly changed little, although we note that some northerners took advantage of a better angle to grab places. This is especially the case for the duo Tanguy le Turquais - Corentin Douget who is now second behind the leaders of the TeamWork boat of Nils Plamieri - Julien Villion. A few hours before the arrival in Gustavia for the first, the fleet is continuing its progress in the moderate and very unstable easterly trade winds at around 15 knots. The last 4 benefit globally from the same situation. The last of this transatlantic race is now more than 3 days behind the first, with a difference of 656 miles at 6TU. At the last reading of 6TU, the first two seemed to increase their lead a little thanks to the strengthening of the wind but above all thanks to a better angle of progression allowing them to keep an almost direct course towards the finish. On their way up north, the southerners will soon jibe to also make a route to 230. Also, in a few hours, we should find the 14 boats lined up in single file towards Saint-Barthélemy.
Sunday May 30
Up to 12TU, northerners will progress in slightly different weather conditions than those further south. Positioned in an area where the air mass is more unstable, their progression will be quite irregular due to the presence of more frequent squalls than in the south. The periods of slack, with a wind that can weaken to 2 beaufort, will alternate with sudden reinforcements during squall passages generating gusts of up to 30 knots. This strong irregularity and instability will force them to strengthen their vigilance in the management of squalls and the choice of sails. This situation could influence the differences between the first two. Given their better angle of progression compared to the southerners, they will nevertheless keep a margin on the gaps with the latter.
From 12TU, the trade wind between force 4 and 5 beaufort will become more stable for northerners. Squalls and gusts will subside and the wind will shift from the right to the south-easterly section. This development will again benefit the leading boats, taking advantage of a maximum angle of progression.
The approach to Saint-Barthélemy in the early afternoon (local time) will nevertheless be in a weakening trade wind, due to the presence of small depressions near the island which will favor the development of soft winds. With this drop in the synoptic wind when rounding the island, the experience of the skippers could make all the difference. If the drop in the easterly wind behind the first reliefs will not be very annoying at first, it is especially when approaching Gustavia where the reliefs are higher that areas of windfall could be created and perhaps change the game in the final sprint.
Throughout the evening and through the night, the arrivals will follow one another ... sometimes even very close together with the reconstitution and strengthening of the trade winds.
Monday May 31
Under a reconstituted trade wind, the arrivals will continue to follow one another. The first 15 in this double-handed Transat will thus have crossed the line, there will be 3 boats still in the race, with a gap of 200 miles between the 16th and the last. Positioned in the West Indian arc, they will progress in an easterly trade wind between 15 and 20 knots initially. However, with the wind direction to the northeast during the day, they will have to move north to maintain speed. This development should force them to arrive later on the island, with a very northern position.
Tuesday June 1 and Wednesday June 2
Taking advantage of a moderate easterly trade wind, the last two will sail at a speed of between 9 and 11 knots. Conditions will remain unstable and still conducive to the alternation of soft winds and sudden reinforcements, with gusts of up to 25 knots.
Weather conditions in Gustavia
Sunday May 30
A mix of sun and cloud.
Wind from easterly 20 to 30 km / h, gusting to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon.
Temperatures: 26 ° to 31 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 30% in the evening and at night
Monday May 31
Mostly sunny sky.
Wind from easterly around 25 km / h, gusting to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon.
Temperatures: 25 ° to 32 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 50% from the evening.
Tuesday June 1
Very changeable with risk of showers.
Wind from easterly around 25 km / h, gusting to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon.
Temperatures: 25 ° to 32 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 70%
Pascal Scaviner, METEO CONSULT