Podwich,
what a great video you have there. Yes it would definetely help the investigators to analyze the film, along with the pilot's and tower's declaration.
As far as I can see from it:
-N21WW is a Piper Aztec owned by Air America Caribbean. A well-established Charter Operator in San Juan, PR.
-The Piper Aztec is a 6-seater aircraft which has STOL capabilities (Short Take Off & Landing), operated by many Caribbean operators including St Barth Commuter. It is safe to fly into St Barths.
-Several models were built by Piper Inc in the 60's and 70's. This one has the "long nose" which means it's either an "E" or "F" model (latest generation), as confirmed by the year of manufacture (1975) described on the FAA registry.
(Note: Air St Thomas used only older models like "C" or "D". So Air America is definitely not using the old AST aircraft).
-Looking at the specs for both models (E & F), the ground roll (distance needed from touchdown to final stop during normal conditions) is between 850 and 950 feet.
That day:
-looking at the windsock at the left end of the runway, the wind is 10 to 15 kts approximately 20 to 30 degrees to the right (120 to 130 degrees), which means an effective headwind component of about 10 knots. This is in favour of an earlier stop as it helps the aircraft to have a "lower" approach ground speed (a typical indicated approach airspeed for the Aztec is 80 kts. With a 10 knot headwind the ground speed will be reduced to about 70 knots). A lower approach ground speed would normally mean a lower touchdown speed, thus a reduced ground roll.
-But the aircraft obviously "floats" quite a distance above the runway, which means that he probably was coming in a little too fast (which is confirmed also by the feel of video when the aicraft overflies the hill). Too much speed means an increased landing roll, despite the headwind component. This even increases as the aircraft comes into "ground effect" (an additional layer of air that builts between the surface of the plane and the runway, directly related to the airspeed).
-But let's not judge the pilot, he might have had a good reason to select a slightly higher approach speed. One of the good reasons is to increase the control of the aircraft in windy/gusty conditions or windshear. In the newspaper, the pilot declared that he encountered windshear. This is truly possible, as we look at the windsock during the approach: It moves from left to right and the wind varies quite a lot in velocity and direction, which could possibly induce windshear.
The touchdown:
-The aircraft touches down beyond the "325 meters" mark (approximately 1050 feet) on the left of the ruway, at a distance that I evaluate of about 200 meters (approximately 700 feet).
-That means that an aircraft which needs a minimum of 850 feet for landing (as per its specs) tried to land on a distance of 700 feet. Way too short, that is!
-He should have "gone around", no doubt about this. He probably would have had enough speed to go airborne before the end of the runway.
-As a rule of thumb, local pilots use the second taxiway ("C") on the right as the limit for touchdown. If the wheels don't hit the ground by this point, just bring the thrust/power levers forward and fly skybound. He obviously passed that point for quite a bit.
-Again, it is not easy to judge the pilot's decision. The pilot has only a few of seconds to evaluate the situation correctly. A go-around is not an every day manoeuvre, even if it is said that for every pilot "each landing is a go-around until safely landed on the runway". It takes some mental effort to actually execute a go-around. This is well-known fact within aviation as the "get-there-itis". The need to get there no matter what. It is a dangerous state of mind and can be created by commercial pressure, time, poor weather, or else.
-Air America Caribbean is a good operator, and I'm sure that all their pilots are well trained up to the FAA standards. If the pilot is permitted to land in SBH, it means that he has received the appropriate training and completed the required landings as per the French Civil aviation Authorities (DGAC). It's probably a pilot's error, but only the final investigation report will state that, after a full analysis of the situation has been made, including any aircraft default or specific weather conditions revealed. But again, it can happen to any good pilot, even with lots of experience into St Barths.
-At least no one was hurt, and that is the most important thing.
Please note however, that despite numerous warning signs on St Jean Beach, we can see on the video two people in the water swimming in between the yellow lines and also a canoe in the distance passing by right into the aircraft departure path.