T/S Jerry

[KevinS]

From the Prefecture:

SAINT BARTHÉLEMY / SAINT MARTIN – [ WEATHER ] TRACKING THE JERRY PHENOMENON.
A tropical storm named Jerry is currently evolving in the Atlantic basin. At 3:30 p.m., it was located approximately 1,700 km southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Storm Jerry is moving westward at a speed of 39 km/h. Average sustained winds are around 75 km/h. Its central pressure is 1,006 hPa.

Rainfall activity within Jerry is very intense and is being closely monitored.

At this stage, the preferred scenario is for JERRY to pass near the northern Lesser Antilles, at a distance that remains to be confirmed, in the form of a hurricane between Thursday and Friday. The Prefect of Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin is closely monitoring the development of the phenomenon, which has been placed under enhanced surveillance by Météo-France.

In coordination with the communities of Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy and in conjunction with Météo-France, the Prefect has decided to mobilize all government services to activate the monitoring system prior to the arrival of a potentially hurricane-like phenomenon.

In these circumstances, everyone is urged to remain vigilant and stay informed through the usual information channels: the prefecture website, official social media, radio stations, etc.

- Stay tuned to weather reports and follow the authorities' instructions;
- Do not plan any hiking or sea trips; moor your boats;
- Check the status of your reserves and replenish them if necessary.

Find all the safety instructions on the Prefecture's website:

Risque Cyclonique

Portail de l'Etat en Les services de l'État à Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin

www.saint-barth-saint-martin.gouv.fr

From the NHC:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 072033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 46.4W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. The government of France has
issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is
expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands
late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches have been issued.

RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[KevinS]

From President Xavier Lédée:

Our island is currently experiencing heavy rains with the arrival of the Jerry weather phenomenon.

The Collectivité's teams are working to monitor the situation and ensure everyone's safety.

I know I can count on everyone's prudence and sense of responsibility during these difficult weather conditions.

Avoid all unnecessary travel and remain vigilant around high-risk areas.



There is erosion onto the road in many places, and the Morne Depoudre road (from Sayolita, over the hill to Petite Saline) is closed.

 

[cec1]

WOW! Prayiing that Jerry turns North.

 

[cassidain]

Bons reportages !

 

[KevinS]

From NHC:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 091150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 58.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to
the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into
Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[KevinS]

Graphic From Météo-SBH via FB:

Yesterday October 8th rainfall at various locations around the island. The 176mm shown for one of the Grand Fond locations is roughly 7 inches.

 

[Dennis]

Damn.

 

[elgreaux]

Tha explains why that road was flooded and impassable - has reopened now.

 

[KevinS]

From the Collectivité (with Imperial Measurements added):

Tropical Storm Jerry is currently located approximately 200 km (124 mikes) from our territories. Tracking models indicate that the system will pass within 140 km (87 miles) of our islands as early as tomorrow morning.

If these assumptions are confirmed, Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin would not be subject to hurricane conditions but to two episodes of deteriorating weather:

• Starting this evening, with an initial rainy period, intensifying winds, and flood waves of up to 3.50 m (11.5 feet) on the east coast.

• During the night from Friday to Saturday, cumulative rainfall of up to 100 mm (4 inches) and wind gusts of up to 100 km/h (62mph) could be observed.

After consultation with the Vice-Chancellor, and in light of these factors, no school closures are planned at this stage.

The territories of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin remain under multi-parameter yellow alert: heavy rain/storms, waves/flooding, and winds. A heightened alert level is possible depending on the development of the phenomenon.

The population is urged to exercise the utmost caution and limit travel as much as possible. The following guidelines are also reiterated:

• Take the necessary measures to shelter or moor your boats;

• Store or secure objects exposed to the wind and likely to become projectiles;

• Avoid all unnecessary travel during this period of severe weather;

• Do not plan any sea trips or hiking;

• Check your water and food supplies and replenish them as needed.

• Stay tuned to Météo-France bulletins and instructions from local authorities;

The Prefect of Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin is calling on everyone to remain vigilant and responsible in the face of this evolving tropical storm. He is monitoring the situation closely and is maintaining the alert status of all operational services.

A general improvement in weather conditions is expected starting Saturday morning.

Find all safety instructions on the Prefecture's website: https://www.saint-barth-saint-marti...nologiques/Risques-Naturels/Risque-Cyclonique

 

[cassidain]

Hivernage

 

[jamiem4]

According to Tradewind, the SBH airport is closed today due to TS Jerry and should reopen tomorrow at 7am. Fingers crossed ~ our TW flight should land Saturday at ~ 2:20pm on the island. We are leaving on the red-eye tonight from SAN and fly though ATL connecting to SJU. I hope everyone everywhere is ok with the weather and storms and also for all of those flying , the TSA and ATC workers are somehow still working. We bring our 2 little dogs (they love Tradewind) so hoping all goes smoothly for their sake.

See you soon Dennis!

 

[cec1]

According to Tradewind, the SBH airport is closed today due to TS Jerry and should reopen tomorrow at 7am. Fingers crossed ~ our TW flight should land Saturday at ~ 2:20pm on the island. We are leaving on the red-eye tonight from SAN and fly though ATL connecting to SJU. I hope everyone everywhere is ok with the weather and storms and also for all of those flying , the TSA and ATC workers are somehow still working. We bring our 2 little dogs (they love Tradewind) so hoping all goes smoothly for their sake.

See you soon Dennis!

Excited to be getting together, Jamie & Dave! Wishing safe travels for you and dogs! . . . please let me know how things go with TSA. Wendy and I are departing on Tuesday to SJU . . . I'm a little nervous because flight controllers at JAX are among those who have been in the "sick-out." We're overnighting in San Juan, with a Noon flight to SBH. Weather should be sunny by then!

 

[cassidain]

I hope someone at FAA recording names for future reference of those calling in « sick ».

 

[JEK]

Perspective:

Air traffic controllers are scheduled to receive a partial paycheck on Oct. 14 and a zero paycheck on Oct. 28, Nick Daniels, president of the 19,000-member National Air Traffic Controllers Association, told Forbes.

Due to the ongoing air traffic controller (ATC) shortage, where the workforce is operating at 26% below full staffing, the average controller works six 10-hour days a week with just four days off every month, according to Daniels.

 

[cassidain]

They will be paid when shutdown resolved.

 

[JEK]

That's not exactly clear who will get back pay. Moot if the mortage is due on October 15th.

 

[cassidain]

Calling in sick doesn’t pay mortgage either.

 

[jamiem4]

Excited to be getting together, Jamie & Dave! Wishing safe travels for you and dogs! . . . please let me know how things go with TSA. Wendy and I are departing on Tuesday to SJU . . . I'm a little nervous because flight controllers at JAX are among those who have been in the "sick-out." We're overnighting in San Juan, with a Noon flight to SBH. Weather should be sunny by then!

We will definitely let you know! SAN may be somewhat ok tonight however we are seeing the planes coming in have been delayed and flights cancelled affecting our friends and family flying in and out of San Diego. Fingers crossed for your flights! So very much looking forward to see you guy and forum friends again! We will meet you know how it goes!

 

[dadto6]

They always get retroactive PAY! When have they not in the past? I was raised, save money for a rainy day which is the responsible thing to do. Always live within your means, does not mean if you miss a paycheck or 2 you are sunk.

 

[cassidain]

They always get retroactive PAY! When have they not in the past? I was raised, save money for a rainy day which is the responsible thing to do. Always live within your means, does not mean if you miss a paycheck or 2 you are sunk.

During the Great Recession I made zero dollars for three years and had mortgages on developments and speculative homes to pay. And I survived. I think someone with a median wage of $144K can survive waiting on paychecks for one or few weeks. And as Dad says, zero doubt they will be paid when spigot reopens.