SBHOnline Trans-Atlantic Race Contest
- Thread starter KevinS
- Start date
andynap
Senior Insider
Nice to see you again. Stranger.
KevinS
Senior Insider
From the race webpage:
The north-south match, the "classico" of the Transat
May 28, 2021
Martin Le Pape (Gardons La Vue) has found a formula to define the north-south duel: the “classico de la Transat”. Beyond words, it's a war of nerves. The northerners seem slightly advantaged, the southerners are not giving up and there are “only” 460 miles left before the inevitably incredible outcome of this double-handed Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy remains.
We must try to understand, from land, what induces the suspense at the heart of a race in the middle of the ocean. The feelings are interwoven between excitement, extreme concentration, the desire to finally relax, the need to rest well, the need to study each weather file with a magnifying glass ... Of course, the Figarists are basically tough guys but they stay above all women and men of the sea who are sometimes exposed to doubts. This feeling, Martin Le Pape (Gardons La Vue) tried to describe it: “we know that it will play out for nothing. We can't wait to be there and at the same time, we find the time long, it's stressful ... "
Northerners confirm their advantage
460 miles from the finish, there is no question of letting the spirits wander about the small pleasures that await them in Saint-Barthélemy, the warm welcome, the sandy beaches and the mouthfuls of rum ... There is a race. to complete and win too. And after 16 days at sea, the match which mobilizes the head of the race is still undecided. They are 6 duos on the north route, 8 duos on the south route. If the southerners had an advantage in recent days, the balance has turned. Since yesterday, the routing has now been favorable to northerners and the current leader is also positioned in the north: TeamWork of the duo Nils Palmieri - Julien Villion.
“The southerners were faced with sluggishness this Friday,” confirms Yann Château to the race director. They are therefore always late in relation to their routing ”. Only Bretagne - CMB Océane and MonAtoutEnergie.fr, located more to the south, had a more consistent speed in this group. The northerners, them, are "in the timing" and even slightly gain time on routing. At the end of the day, however, the southern group has regained speeds in accordance with the weather forecast while a soft zone is forecast for the next few hours in the north.
"Don't let go until the end"
In the testimonies on board, enthusiasm also seems to have changed sides. Among the northerners, it is optimism that prevails: "we can feel it," says Violette Dorange (Devenir) even if her sidekick, Alan Roberts, recommends "to remain cautious and not to let go until the end". On the southern side, we perceive for the first time a hint of apprehension. "I think that it will perhaps pass in the North", blows Martin Le Pape. "It's very tight, the weather is complicated, it will be played out on small details" corroborates Pep Costa (associated with Will Harris aboard CYBELE VACANCES-TEAM PLAY TO B).
The race circumstances only heightened the interest in this final sprint from gravel. And as the skippers have become accustomed to sending audio and video news, a touch of nostalgia would almost be felt to think that in a few days, these moments of life will already be part of the memories. In the playlist of snapshots on board this Friday - and to fill up with good humor before the weekend - there is the "pasta party" organized on board Brittany - CMB Océane with tomato sauce, parmesan and cold meats for Elodie Bonafous and Corentin Horeau.
There is also the sunset captured aboard Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose, “one of the last of the race” reminds Pierre Leboucher and Thomas Rouxel. And then there is the mood of Tanguy Le Turquais and Corentin Douguet (Quéguiner - Innovéo). Corentin: “I left the cellar, I'm bringing back a good Bordeaux. A Saint-Estèphe from 1989 ”. "You're going to have a good night again", replies Tanguy. So goes the Transat with smiles, small moments of pleasure and the desire to give everything 460 miles from an outcome that promises to be as hot as the mercury of Saint-Barthélemy.
The north-south match, the "classico" of the Transat
May 28, 2021
Martin Le Pape (Gardons La Vue) has found a formula to define the north-south duel: the “classico de la Transat”. Beyond words, it's a war of nerves. The northerners seem slightly advantaged, the southerners are not giving up and there are “only” 460 miles left before the inevitably incredible outcome of this double-handed Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy remains.
We must try to understand, from land, what induces the suspense at the heart of a race in the middle of the ocean. The feelings are interwoven between excitement, extreme concentration, the desire to finally relax, the need to rest well, the need to study each weather file with a magnifying glass ... Of course, the Figarists are basically tough guys but they stay above all women and men of the sea who are sometimes exposed to doubts. This feeling, Martin Le Pape (Gardons La Vue) tried to describe it: “we know that it will play out for nothing. We can't wait to be there and at the same time, we find the time long, it's stressful ... "
Northerners confirm their advantage
460 miles from the finish, there is no question of letting the spirits wander about the small pleasures that await them in Saint-Barthélemy, the warm welcome, the sandy beaches and the mouthfuls of rum ... There is a race. to complete and win too. And after 16 days at sea, the match which mobilizes the head of the race is still undecided. They are 6 duos on the north route, 8 duos on the south route. If the southerners had an advantage in recent days, the balance has turned. Since yesterday, the routing has now been favorable to northerners and the current leader is also positioned in the north: TeamWork of the duo Nils Palmieri - Julien Villion.
“The southerners were faced with sluggishness this Friday,” confirms Yann Château to the race director. They are therefore always late in relation to their routing ”. Only Bretagne - CMB Océane and MonAtoutEnergie.fr, located more to the south, had a more consistent speed in this group. The northerners, them, are "in the timing" and even slightly gain time on routing. At the end of the day, however, the southern group has regained speeds in accordance with the weather forecast while a soft zone is forecast for the next few hours in the north.
"Don't let go until the end"
In the testimonies on board, enthusiasm also seems to have changed sides. Among the northerners, it is optimism that prevails: "we can feel it," says Violette Dorange (Devenir) even if her sidekick, Alan Roberts, recommends "to remain cautious and not to let go until the end". On the southern side, we perceive for the first time a hint of apprehension. "I think that it will perhaps pass in the North", blows Martin Le Pape. "It's very tight, the weather is complicated, it will be played out on small details" corroborates Pep Costa (associated with Will Harris aboard CYBELE VACANCES-TEAM PLAY TO B).
The race circumstances only heightened the interest in this final sprint from gravel. And as the skippers have become accustomed to sending audio and video news, a touch of nostalgia would almost be felt to think that in a few days, these moments of life will already be part of the memories. In the playlist of snapshots on board this Friday - and to fill up with good humor before the weekend - there is the "pasta party" organized on board Brittany - CMB Océane with tomato sauce, parmesan and cold meats for Elodie Bonafous and Corentin Horeau.
There is also the sunset captured aboard Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose, “one of the last of the race” reminds Pierre Leboucher and Thomas Rouxel. And then there is the mood of Tanguy Le Turquais and Corentin Douguet (Quéguiner - Innovéo). Corentin: “I left the cellar, I'm bringing back a good Bordeaux. A Saint-Estèphe from 1989 ”. "You're going to have a good night again", replies Tanguy. So goes the Transat with smiles, small moments of pleasure and the desire to give everything 460 miles from an outcome that promises to be as hot as the mercury of Saint-Barthélemy.
KevinS
Senior Insider
Fridays Weather update:
Météo Consult - bulletin of May 28, 2021
May 28, 2021
General situation:
This Friday, the high at 1026 hPa located this morning about 400 miles west of the Azores archipelago is swelling and gradually shifting eastward during the day. This development results in greater irregularity in the moderate trade winds towards the West Indies.
On Saturday, with the arrival of a disturbance over the northern Azores, the high pressure system retracted over the archipelago while strengthening at 1030 hPa. The presence of a mass of cold air at altitude revitalizes the trade winds towards the West Indian arc, mainly orienting it in the east-south-east sector.
On Sunday, the high pressure continues to strengthen at 1033 hPa and shifts again about 900 miles west of the Azores archipelago. This development is helping to tighten the pressure gradient over the West Indian arc and strengthen the trade winds.
On Monday, the high pressure rises to 1037 hPa this time shifts northward to center off Newfoundland. This significant shift in high pressures to the north will maintain a sustained trade wind over the northern Antilles, with, as during the last 48 hours, a situation conducive to fairly strong instability with squalls.
Weather conditions at sea:
During the last 24 hours, the northerners have been able to reduce the differences with the southerners thanks to a better angle of progression. This was especially the case with the TeamWork boat, which averaged 1.5 knots faster than the leading boat still led by Team Bretagne - CMB Performance. The latter was no more than 6 miles behind the 1st this Friday morning. This day should once again be favorable for him to become the leader of the race. The other boats further north should also be favored, which should once again narrow the gap with the southerners, who are forced to maneuver more due to a more unfavorable trade wind angle. The weather situation is so far not really conducive to the development of fairly strong squalls even though the gusts can reach 20 to 25 knots. On the other hand, the situation for the next 48 hours will be more conducive to a strengthening of the trade winds and an enhanced cumulification with more generalized and strong squalls.
Friday May 28
The northerners were able to evolve during the night under a weakening trade wind but taking a little to the right, which allowed them to keep a good wind angle on a direct route towards Saint-Barthélemy. They are still sailing this morning in an easterly south-easterly trade wind blowing between 7 and 9 knots, a wind that they will keep throughout the day and in particular allowing TeamWork to take the lead in this race. The southerners are in a less favorable situation. The tailwind still forces them to frequent gybes to go up towards Saint-Barthélemy. Their route to the West Indies will therefore be much less direct than for northerners. For all the first 13 boats, the tactical choices remain important to gain miles or limit the gaps.
Saturday May 29
The situation will continue to be favorable to northerners thanks to a trade wind which will strengthen in the east-south-east around 18 knots on average. In this context, the speed of progress will accelerate. Note that the weather conditions could be a little more unstable, especially in the afternoon with the development of squalls that could locally generate gusts of up to 30 knots. As for the southerners, they will always be operating in a less favorable trade wind angle, blowing between 14 and 15 knots on average. This situation will force them to do many gybes again.
Sunday May 30
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, the northerners will have been able to navigate in a trade wind taking a little to the left, heading more east and blowing around 10 to 15 knots. It will pick up again from the right during the day to orient itself in the east-south-east sector. The northerners will then continue their journey towards the finish at an average speed between 9 and 10 knots. Southerners will finally be able to benefit from a trade wind at a more favorable angle, around 120 °, before the wind picks up again a little to the left. For the last few hours, they will therefore still be forced into frequent gybes before reaching their destination between Sunday and Monday. Note that sailors may once again be exposed to instability causing good squalls and possible gusts of around 25-30 knots or even more.
Monday May 31
The east-south-easterly wind between 12 and 16 knots will accompany the sailors still racing up to the compulsory passage mark in the north of the island, in rough seas with waves of 2m and maximum heights of over of 3m. These wave heights will be related to the persistence of the easterly swell for a period of 8 seconds.
Everything will then depend, in the 5 miles remaining until Gustavia, on the precise arrival time of each boat on the mark. It will therefore become a real regatta where the most experienced skippers who know the water well will make the difference, because bypassing the island to the west can be tricky due to the first reliefs culminating in less than 200 meters above sea level but then rising rapidly as it approaches Gustavia. Several options will be observed in a trajectory more or less close to the coast. In the weather forecast to date, sheltered from the wind due to the reliefs, the flow should weaken at the end of the night force 2 to 3 bFt with some possible gusts of force 4-5 but with still possible sluggishness locally. It will be maintained for the following hours, before a possible general softness in the late morning and which will precede the lifting of the breeze and then the strengthening of the east wind in the afternoon with possible squalls.
Cyril BONNEFOY, METEO CONSULT
Météo Consult - bulletin of May 28, 2021
May 28, 2021
General situation:
This Friday, the high at 1026 hPa located this morning about 400 miles west of the Azores archipelago is swelling and gradually shifting eastward during the day. This development results in greater irregularity in the moderate trade winds towards the West Indies.
On Saturday, with the arrival of a disturbance over the northern Azores, the high pressure system retracted over the archipelago while strengthening at 1030 hPa. The presence of a mass of cold air at altitude revitalizes the trade winds towards the West Indian arc, mainly orienting it in the east-south-east sector.
On Sunday, the high pressure continues to strengthen at 1033 hPa and shifts again about 900 miles west of the Azores archipelago. This development is helping to tighten the pressure gradient over the West Indian arc and strengthen the trade winds.
On Monday, the high pressure rises to 1037 hPa this time shifts northward to center off Newfoundland. This significant shift in high pressures to the north will maintain a sustained trade wind over the northern Antilles, with, as during the last 48 hours, a situation conducive to fairly strong instability with squalls.
Weather conditions at sea:
During the last 24 hours, the northerners have been able to reduce the differences with the southerners thanks to a better angle of progression. This was especially the case with the TeamWork boat, which averaged 1.5 knots faster than the leading boat still led by Team Bretagne - CMB Performance. The latter was no more than 6 miles behind the 1st this Friday morning. This day should once again be favorable for him to become the leader of the race. The other boats further north should also be favored, which should once again narrow the gap with the southerners, who are forced to maneuver more due to a more unfavorable trade wind angle. The weather situation is so far not really conducive to the development of fairly strong squalls even though the gusts can reach 20 to 25 knots. On the other hand, the situation for the next 48 hours will be more conducive to a strengthening of the trade winds and an enhanced cumulification with more generalized and strong squalls.
Friday May 28
The northerners were able to evolve during the night under a weakening trade wind but taking a little to the right, which allowed them to keep a good wind angle on a direct route towards Saint-Barthélemy. They are still sailing this morning in an easterly south-easterly trade wind blowing between 7 and 9 knots, a wind that they will keep throughout the day and in particular allowing TeamWork to take the lead in this race. The southerners are in a less favorable situation. The tailwind still forces them to frequent gybes to go up towards Saint-Barthélemy. Their route to the West Indies will therefore be much less direct than for northerners. For all the first 13 boats, the tactical choices remain important to gain miles or limit the gaps.
Saturday May 29
The situation will continue to be favorable to northerners thanks to a trade wind which will strengthen in the east-south-east around 18 knots on average. In this context, the speed of progress will accelerate. Note that the weather conditions could be a little more unstable, especially in the afternoon with the development of squalls that could locally generate gusts of up to 30 knots. As for the southerners, they will always be operating in a less favorable trade wind angle, blowing between 14 and 15 knots on average. This situation will force them to do many gybes again.
Sunday May 30
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, the northerners will have been able to navigate in a trade wind taking a little to the left, heading more east and blowing around 10 to 15 knots. It will pick up again from the right during the day to orient itself in the east-south-east sector. The northerners will then continue their journey towards the finish at an average speed between 9 and 10 knots. Southerners will finally be able to benefit from a trade wind at a more favorable angle, around 120 °, before the wind picks up again a little to the left. For the last few hours, they will therefore still be forced into frequent gybes before reaching their destination between Sunday and Monday. Note that sailors may once again be exposed to instability causing good squalls and possible gusts of around 25-30 knots or even more.
Monday May 31
The east-south-easterly wind between 12 and 16 knots will accompany the sailors still racing up to the compulsory passage mark in the north of the island, in rough seas with waves of 2m and maximum heights of over of 3m. These wave heights will be related to the persistence of the easterly swell for a period of 8 seconds.
Everything will then depend, in the 5 miles remaining until Gustavia, on the precise arrival time of each boat on the mark. It will therefore become a real regatta where the most experienced skippers who know the water well will make the difference, because bypassing the island to the west can be tricky due to the first reliefs culminating in less than 200 meters above sea level but then rising rapidly as it approaches Gustavia. Several options will be observed in a trajectory more or less close to the coast. In the weather forecast to date, sheltered from the wind due to the reliefs, the flow should weaken at the end of the night force 2 to 3 bFt with some possible gusts of force 4-5 but with still possible sluggishness locally. It will be maintained for the following hours, before a possible general softness in the late morning and which will precede the lifting of the breeze and then the strengthening of the east wind in the afternoon with possible squalls.
Cyril BONNEFOY, METEO CONSULT
KevinS
Senior Insider
The Saturday Weather Update from the race website:
Météo Consult - bulletin of May 29, 2021
May 29, 2021
General situation:
This Saturday, the high pressure center less than 300 miles west of the Azores swells to 1030 hPa and spreads at the end of the day to 10 degrees of latitude on either side of the archipelago. This development causes a disturbance and a mass of cold altitude air to descend east of the Azores. It generates a gust of wind north of the Canaries. This general context reinvigorates the trade winds towards the West Indian arc. However, the latter sometimes remains very irregular due to the presence of grains, conducive to sudden reinforcements but also to softness.
On Sunday, the passage of the disturbance over the Canaries continues to maintain a sustained and fairly strong trade wind towards the north of the Antilles. It is the windiest day of this second part of the week, in a very unstable weather situation with squalls of up to 30-35 knots in rough seas.
On Monday, the high pressure between Newfoundland and the Azores is showing signs of weakness and contributing to a partial decrease in the trade wind over the northern Caribbean.
On Tuesday, the shift of the high pressure to the east results in an easing of the pressure gradient over the West Indies and a decrease in the trade winds.
Weather conditions at sea:
As envisaged yesterday, the TeamWork boat has taken the lead of the fleet thanks to an average speed of progression of 0.6 knots faster than the boats to the south but a speed which has dropped in recent hours to 2 knots!
Less than 2 days from the finish, the northerners have been able to benefit from more favorable conditions over the past 24 hours despite the sometimes lower wind, but above all thanks to a better angle of progress towards Saint-Barthélemy, allowing them less gybes. . The Bretagne - CMB Performance boat is now second over 15 miles from the TeamWork boat. This gap will widen over the next few hours, again thanks to a more favorable position for the Northerners in a wind that will partially strengthen and a situation where the irregularity of the general flow will be less severe than for the Southerners. It is not surprising in this context, to see the few boats between these two groups pick up from the northern group. At the back, the last three competitors clocking up almost 2 days behind for the most retarded progressed last night in a more sustained trade wind than for the first. They will keep it still for the next few hours. This will allow them to still make good speeds in a long tack to the southwest.
Saturday May 29
The northerners led by the TeamWork boat are operating in a trade wind which has strengthened in recent hours at an average of 11 to 13 knots in the east-south-east sector. It allows them to continue on the direct route with progress speeds increasing to nearly 10 knots. These speeds are likely to increase further during the day, thanks to the strengthening of the trade wind to force 5 and its orientation to the south-east. However, the latter will be irregular and unstable again, with slack up to 1 to 2 beauforts after passing a few squalls which will precede sudden reinforcements ahead of the squalls with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. In the evening, the wind will pick up from the left to take an eastern component during the night while strengthening again with a possible force 6.
The general context is less favorable for southerners this Saturday. Indeed, the orientation of the wind in the axis of their course obliges them to move away from the direct course and to descend towards the south to maintain speed. They will then have to opt for a main jibe at the end of the day to the north, towards Saint-Barthélemy. It also remains that this group should manage a much more irregular and unstable wind than for northerners, with areas of less sustained wind and a greater risk of slack.
Sunday May 30
Developments should make the general conditions more homogeneous for all competitors. Although still irregular, the trade wind will become quite strong between force 5 and 6 beauforts with a situation conducive to more convection than in recent days. In this context, squall gusts could reach 30 to 35 knots. The speed of the boats will be fairly identical, but those of their approach on arrival still favorable to northerners. They will quickly get closer to the island of Saint-Barthélemy and position themselves as well as possible to aim for the obligatory mark of passage north of the island in the evening. The southerners will approach the northerners by placing themselves behind. The gaps remain low for the first 10. The sea will remain rough but not restrictive. The regatta can then begin and everything will depend at that time on the precise time of the passage of the boats at the crossing mark. It should be noted that the race will become more technical and strategies and tactics will count for a lot due to the topography of the island in this sector with reliefs culminating at around 200 m. This situation can be tricky for the skippers who will find themselves sheltered from these reliefs. This is where skippers who know the water well will be able to make the difference. Sailors will have to opt for a trajectory more or less close to the coast.
Monday May 31
The wind will be oriented east-southeast and will blow between 15 and 18 knots overnight from Sunday to Monday. The sea will then be rough with waves in general of 2m and maximum heights of 3m. These wave heights will be more related to the persistence of the easterly swell of a period of 8 s than to the windy sea. In the meteorological context expected to date, sheltered from the wind due to the reliefs, the flow should weaken in the second part of the night force 2 to 3 bFt with a few possible gusts of force 4-5 but with still possible slack locally. It will be maintained for the following hours, before a possible general softness in the late morning and which will precede the lifting of the breeze then the strengthening of the east wind in the afternoon with possible squalls.
Tuesday June 1
While the first will have arrived, the last skippers will be operating in an east-northeast trade wind blowing between 13 and 16 knots on average. It will allow them to keep a more or less direct route towards Saint-Barthélémy and with speeds varying from 7 to 9 knots. A risk of squalls will always be observed on their route with gusts that can still exceed 20-25 knots. The last skippers of the race should then arrive in Gustavia in the morning of this Wednesday, more than 48 hours after the first.
Weather conditions in Gustavia
Saturday May 29
Sky between sun and clouds. Risk of showers at the end of the day and evening
Wind from an East-South-East 25 km / h on average, gusts to 35-40 km / h
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Sunday May 30
Sunny spells and thunderstorms.
Wind from the East 20 to 30 km / h, gusts to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon or even more under showers.
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 70%
Monday May 31
Clouds dominate in the morning with a risk of downpours then the sky clears up in the afternoon.
Wind from easterly around 30 km / h, gusting to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon.
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Cyril BONNEFOY, METEO CONSULT
Météo Consult - bulletin of May 29, 2021
May 29, 2021
General situation:
This Saturday, the high pressure center less than 300 miles west of the Azores swells to 1030 hPa and spreads at the end of the day to 10 degrees of latitude on either side of the archipelago. This development causes a disturbance and a mass of cold altitude air to descend east of the Azores. It generates a gust of wind north of the Canaries. This general context reinvigorates the trade winds towards the West Indian arc. However, the latter sometimes remains very irregular due to the presence of grains, conducive to sudden reinforcements but also to softness.
On Sunday, the passage of the disturbance over the Canaries continues to maintain a sustained and fairly strong trade wind towards the north of the Antilles. It is the windiest day of this second part of the week, in a very unstable weather situation with squalls of up to 30-35 knots in rough seas.
On Monday, the high pressure between Newfoundland and the Azores is showing signs of weakness and contributing to a partial decrease in the trade wind over the northern Caribbean.
On Tuesday, the shift of the high pressure to the east results in an easing of the pressure gradient over the West Indies and a decrease in the trade winds.
Weather conditions at sea:
As envisaged yesterday, the TeamWork boat has taken the lead of the fleet thanks to an average speed of progression of 0.6 knots faster than the boats to the south but a speed which has dropped in recent hours to 2 knots!
Less than 2 days from the finish, the northerners have been able to benefit from more favorable conditions over the past 24 hours despite the sometimes lower wind, but above all thanks to a better angle of progress towards Saint-Barthélemy, allowing them less gybes. . The Bretagne - CMB Performance boat is now second over 15 miles from the TeamWork boat. This gap will widen over the next few hours, again thanks to a more favorable position for the Northerners in a wind that will partially strengthen and a situation where the irregularity of the general flow will be less severe than for the Southerners. It is not surprising in this context, to see the few boats between these two groups pick up from the northern group. At the back, the last three competitors clocking up almost 2 days behind for the most retarded progressed last night in a more sustained trade wind than for the first. They will keep it still for the next few hours. This will allow them to still make good speeds in a long tack to the southwest.
Saturday May 29
The northerners led by the TeamWork boat are operating in a trade wind which has strengthened in recent hours at an average of 11 to 13 knots in the east-south-east sector. It allows them to continue on the direct route with progress speeds increasing to nearly 10 knots. These speeds are likely to increase further during the day, thanks to the strengthening of the trade wind to force 5 and its orientation to the south-east. However, the latter will be irregular and unstable again, with slack up to 1 to 2 beauforts after passing a few squalls which will precede sudden reinforcements ahead of the squalls with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. In the evening, the wind will pick up from the left to take an eastern component during the night while strengthening again with a possible force 6.
The general context is less favorable for southerners this Saturday. Indeed, the orientation of the wind in the axis of their course obliges them to move away from the direct course and to descend towards the south to maintain speed. They will then have to opt for a main jibe at the end of the day to the north, towards Saint-Barthélemy. It also remains that this group should manage a much more irregular and unstable wind than for northerners, with areas of less sustained wind and a greater risk of slack.
Sunday May 30
Developments should make the general conditions more homogeneous for all competitors. Although still irregular, the trade wind will become quite strong between force 5 and 6 beauforts with a situation conducive to more convection than in recent days. In this context, squall gusts could reach 30 to 35 knots. The speed of the boats will be fairly identical, but those of their approach on arrival still favorable to northerners. They will quickly get closer to the island of Saint-Barthélemy and position themselves as well as possible to aim for the obligatory mark of passage north of the island in the evening. The southerners will approach the northerners by placing themselves behind. The gaps remain low for the first 10. The sea will remain rough but not restrictive. The regatta can then begin and everything will depend at that time on the precise time of the passage of the boats at the crossing mark. It should be noted that the race will become more technical and strategies and tactics will count for a lot due to the topography of the island in this sector with reliefs culminating at around 200 m. This situation can be tricky for the skippers who will find themselves sheltered from these reliefs. This is where skippers who know the water well will be able to make the difference. Sailors will have to opt for a trajectory more or less close to the coast.
Monday May 31
The wind will be oriented east-southeast and will blow between 15 and 18 knots overnight from Sunday to Monday. The sea will then be rough with waves in general of 2m and maximum heights of 3m. These wave heights will be more related to the persistence of the easterly swell of a period of 8 s than to the windy sea. In the meteorological context expected to date, sheltered from the wind due to the reliefs, the flow should weaken in the second part of the night force 2 to 3 bFt with a few possible gusts of force 4-5 but with still possible slack locally. It will be maintained for the following hours, before a possible general softness in the late morning and which will precede the lifting of the breeze then the strengthening of the east wind in the afternoon with possible squalls.
Tuesday June 1
While the first will have arrived, the last skippers will be operating in an east-northeast trade wind blowing between 13 and 16 knots on average. It will allow them to keep a more or less direct route towards Saint-Barthélémy and with speeds varying from 7 to 9 knots. A risk of squalls will always be observed on their route with gusts that can still exceed 20-25 knots. The last skippers of the race should then arrive in Gustavia in the morning of this Wednesday, more than 48 hours after the first.
Weather conditions in Gustavia
Saturday May 29
Sky between sun and clouds. Risk of showers at the end of the day and evening
Wind from an East-South-East 25 km / h on average, gusts to 35-40 km / h
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Sunday May 30
Sunny spells and thunderstorms.
Wind from the East 20 to 30 km / h, gusts to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon or even more under showers.
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 70%
Monday May 31
Clouds dominate in the morning with a risk of downpours then the sky clears up in the afternoon.
Wind from easterly around 30 km / h, gusting to 40-50 km / h in the afternoon.
Temperatures: 26 ° to 27 ° C
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Cyril BONNEFOY, METEO CONSULT
KevinS
Senior Insider
Commentary from the race webpage:
Stop me if you can !
May 29, 2021
While the first arrivals are expected this Sunday at the end of the day (French time), the northerners still retain an advantage over the southerners. The bitterness is palpable among them and in the north, the duos sharpen their weapons in the final sprint. State of play before two days which promise to be decisive.
It is a question that crosses the mind this Saturday morning, observing the cartography. Do the 18 duos of the Double Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy even know that it is Saturday and that the slightly warmer temperatures in France are more conducive to a weekend of relaxation? On board, it is out of the question to think of slacking off, of breathing, of enjoying. These desires are reserved for their next world, on arrival and it is soon: the first line crossings, in Gustavia, could take place this Sunday at 6 p.m. (French time) and 4 p.m. (local time) .
Northerners "seem to confirm their advantage"
But who ? After 17 days on the ocean, the suspense is still relevant. Always the same observation: there are 6 duets in the north - including the leader since yesterday, TeamWork - and 8 duos in the south. And the trend is favorable to northerners, who have passed the expected sluggishness without hindrance, which has finally subsided. "The context has not changed and the northerners seem to confirm their advantage," explains Yann Château to the race director. "There are sometimes a few squalls that can cause trouble: this night we saw the Normandy Region and (L’Égoïste) - Cantina St Barth accelerate by being a little further south of the northern fleet”.
"We will fight to the end" (Thomas Rouxel)
To the north, the Figaro Bénéteau 3s got out of the sluggishness at the end of the night and should continue to accelerate. On the other hand, it is impossible for the moment to know who, in this group, will win. “TeamWork is rather well placed but we can see that the squalls can modify the positions”, continues Yann Château.
Among southerners, bitterness predominates. After the apprehension of Martin Le Pape (Keep our eyesight) yesterday, Thomas Rouxel (Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose) also follows in his footsteps in an email: “it's hard even if we will fight to the end . In the north, they are announced in the lead after taking an option that did not exist. For us, it's a bit like going to the casino. You do not bet a coin but when leaving, you still lost 500 balls! "There is a duality in these words between hope -" the situation can be reversed very quickly "- and a form of abatement -" the results are nevertheless exceptional, we have carried the colors of Guyot Environnement-Ruban Rose high. ". The battle is not yet over, however, enough to liven up this summer weekend, however peaceful it may be from land.
Words from the edge of the night:
Alexis Loison and Guillaume Pirouelle (Normandy Region):
“Yesterday was a little complicated day. We suffered a huge squall that stuck us behind: for two hours, we had more wind and we tacked to be able to get out of it… We've had this for two to three days and it's a little hard. We are making good progress at night and always have a halt during the day. In any case, we will hope that it will go well. It might be very tight at the finish. The routings make us arrive on Sunday evening and we hope that we will keep this timing! "
Pierre Leboucher and Thomas Rouxel (Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose):
"We feel ready for the final sprint, more than ever! But it's hard, everything changed so quickly. There were plenty of moves to play in this race, we did some bad ones but for the most part, we are still very satisfied and we thought we had mastered the race well. And then there, the latecomers (the northerners NDRL) are announced in the lead. It’s a move that didn’t exist. For us, it's a bit like going to the casino. You do not bet a coin but when leaving, you still lost 500 balls! "
Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry (RLC Sailing):
“For the next few hours, not much is going to happen. It’s straight on the port tack and we’re heading towards a slackening wind. As of this writing, it is indeed easing. The evening question is: are we going to have squalls tonight? That's it, we're starting to talk about the finish. It’s not very far! "
Stop me if you can !
May 29, 2021
While the first arrivals are expected this Sunday at the end of the day (French time), the northerners still retain an advantage over the southerners. The bitterness is palpable among them and in the north, the duos sharpen their weapons in the final sprint. State of play before two days which promise to be decisive.
It is a question that crosses the mind this Saturday morning, observing the cartography. Do the 18 duos of the Double Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy even know that it is Saturday and that the slightly warmer temperatures in France are more conducive to a weekend of relaxation? On board, it is out of the question to think of slacking off, of breathing, of enjoying. These desires are reserved for their next world, on arrival and it is soon: the first line crossings, in Gustavia, could take place this Sunday at 6 p.m. (French time) and 4 p.m. (local time) .
Northerners "seem to confirm their advantage"
But who ? After 17 days on the ocean, the suspense is still relevant. Always the same observation: there are 6 duets in the north - including the leader since yesterday, TeamWork - and 8 duos in the south. And the trend is favorable to northerners, who have passed the expected sluggishness without hindrance, which has finally subsided. "The context has not changed and the northerners seem to confirm their advantage," explains Yann Château to the race director. "There are sometimes a few squalls that can cause trouble: this night we saw the Normandy Region and (L’Égoïste) - Cantina St Barth accelerate by being a little further south of the northern fleet”.
"We will fight to the end" (Thomas Rouxel)
To the north, the Figaro Bénéteau 3s got out of the sluggishness at the end of the night and should continue to accelerate. On the other hand, it is impossible for the moment to know who, in this group, will win. “TeamWork is rather well placed but we can see that the squalls can modify the positions”, continues Yann Château.
Among southerners, bitterness predominates. After the apprehension of Martin Le Pape (Keep our eyesight) yesterday, Thomas Rouxel (Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose) also follows in his footsteps in an email: “it's hard even if we will fight to the end . In the north, they are announced in the lead after taking an option that did not exist. For us, it's a bit like going to the casino. You do not bet a coin but when leaving, you still lost 500 balls! "There is a duality in these words between hope -" the situation can be reversed very quickly "- and a form of abatement -" the results are nevertheless exceptional, we have carried the colors of Guyot Environnement-Ruban Rose high. ". The battle is not yet over, however, enough to liven up this summer weekend, however peaceful it may be from land.
Words from the edge of the night:
Alexis Loison and Guillaume Pirouelle (Normandy Region):
“Yesterday was a little complicated day. We suffered a huge squall that stuck us behind: for two hours, we had more wind and we tacked to be able to get out of it… We've had this for two to three days and it's a little hard. We are making good progress at night and always have a halt during the day. In any case, we will hope that it will go well. It might be very tight at the finish. The routings make us arrive on Sunday evening and we hope that we will keep this timing! "
Pierre Leboucher and Thomas Rouxel (Guyot Environnement - Ruban Rose):
"We feel ready for the final sprint, more than ever! But it's hard, everything changed so quickly. There were plenty of moves to play in this race, we did some bad ones but for the most part, we are still very satisfied and we thought we had mastered the race well. And then there, the latecomers (the northerners NDRL) are announced in the lead. It’s a move that didn’t exist. For us, it's a bit like going to the casino. You do not bet a coin but when leaving, you still lost 500 balls! "
Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry (RLC Sailing):
“For the next few hours, not much is going to happen. It’s straight on the port tack and we’re heading towards a slackening wind. As of this writing, it is indeed easing. The evening question is: are we going to have squalls tonight? That's it, we're starting to talk about the finish. It’s not very far! "
KevinS
Senior Insider
More Commentary from the race webpage:
24 hours chrono
May 29, 2021
In about 24 hours, the outcome of the Double Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy will be known. With less than 270 miles from the finish line, the advantage is still for the northerners and foremost: TeamWork (Nils Palmieri - Julien Villion). As the bodies are strained and fatigue sets in, it is time for general mobilization before a last ditch effort.
This Sunday, at the end of the day, the winners of the double-handed Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy will have entered their name on the race list. It will be the time for hugs, the first words picked up on the pontoon, the emotion and that festive spirit that should stretch in Gustavia with each arrival. The scene is set, the mercury is there (nearly 30 ° C Sunday afternoon), the skippers are ready to disembark but only the end of the scenario is missing.
TeamWork advantage!
The forces in presence are unchanged with 8 duets in the south, 6 in the north and an advantage to the northerners which is confirmed. At the head of this group: TeamWork, leader of the classification since the day before and now declared candidate for victory. Nils Palmieri, associated with Julien Villion, does not hide it: "we have been thinking about it for several days, since we realized that the northern option could pay off". The sequence of events also seems favorable: "it will be straight ahead, with a stable wind, which will allow us to rest a little before tackling the bypass of the island". "On the last routes, Teamwork has a little head start," adds Francis Le Goff, the race director. "And when you know the quality of the duo, you know that they have the capacity to last until the end. "
Among their main pursuers, no one hides their admiration for the progress made by TeamWork. Those who talk about it best are Tanguy Le Turquais and Corentin Douguet (Queguiner - Innoveo): “they would make great winners. Nils Palmieri and Julien Villion clearly deserve it. We think they are the ones who sailed the best and had the best trajectories. "
For others, the bitterness is sometimes palpable, as on board Skipper Macif. "With the grains and the accumulated fatigue, we drool", confide Pierre Quiroga and Erwan le Draoulec. "We are relegated far from our initial ambitions, it hurts the heart". The same goes for Breizh Cola, which is one of the southerners. "It's hard to take after so much battle in 18 days," writes Gildas Mahé. “The end will be a bit long and tedious, but we will try not to be the most disappointed in the south. "
"The southerners are a little slower and above all, they always have to jibe, so to cover more miles", explains Francis Le Goff.
Lightness despite everything
However, the short distances between the first 14 - 47 miles on the orthodromy, 130 miles sideways - herald a particularly busy end of the day and evening in Gustavia. "We're pretty sure there won't be a 24 hour gap between the top 14," said Francis Le Goff. “Even RLC Sailing (130 miles from the lead) should cross the line on Monday morning. "
Despite the final battle and its demand, the competitors continued to send images from the edge. At Breizh Cola, Tom Dolan achieved the feat of placing three candles on a cake to celebrate Gildas Mahé's birthday. Nils Palmieri and Julien Villion, for their part, immortalized Friday's aperitif with cod liver and country ham. Finally, we recommend the magnificent images of Arthur Hubert and Clément Commagnac. In a drone, they filmed MonAtoutEnergie.fr in the middle of the ocean, a moment of grace as the sun was setting in the background ...
Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry, the sores on board
Behind the duel between the Northerners and the Southerners, the 4 duos who are in pursuit of them have been dealing with some glitches for several days. Jérôme Samuel and Nicolas Salet (ERISMA - SODES GROUP - TARA OCEAN Foundation) thus faced the breakage of their forestay last weekend. A handful of days later, the Livory brothers blocked a waterway aboard Interaction. And we have learned in recent hours about the misadventures of Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry (RLC Sailing), currently 15th.
24 hours chrono
May 29, 2021
In about 24 hours, the outcome of the Double Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy will be known. With less than 270 miles from the finish line, the advantage is still for the northerners and foremost: TeamWork (Nils Palmieri - Julien Villion). As the bodies are strained and fatigue sets in, it is time for general mobilization before a last ditch effort.
This Sunday, at the end of the day, the winners of the double-handed Transat - Concarneau - Saint-Barthélemy will have entered their name on the race list. It will be the time for hugs, the first words picked up on the pontoon, the emotion and that festive spirit that should stretch in Gustavia with each arrival. The scene is set, the mercury is there (nearly 30 ° C Sunday afternoon), the skippers are ready to disembark but only the end of the scenario is missing.
TeamWork advantage!
The forces in presence are unchanged with 8 duets in the south, 6 in the north and an advantage to the northerners which is confirmed. At the head of this group: TeamWork, leader of the classification since the day before and now declared candidate for victory. Nils Palmieri, associated with Julien Villion, does not hide it: "we have been thinking about it for several days, since we realized that the northern option could pay off". The sequence of events also seems favorable: "it will be straight ahead, with a stable wind, which will allow us to rest a little before tackling the bypass of the island". "On the last routes, Teamwork has a little head start," adds Francis Le Goff, the race director. "And when you know the quality of the duo, you know that they have the capacity to last until the end. "
Among their main pursuers, no one hides their admiration for the progress made by TeamWork. Those who talk about it best are Tanguy Le Turquais and Corentin Douguet (Queguiner - Innoveo): “they would make great winners. Nils Palmieri and Julien Villion clearly deserve it. We think they are the ones who sailed the best and had the best trajectories. "
For others, the bitterness is sometimes palpable, as on board Skipper Macif. "With the grains and the accumulated fatigue, we drool", confide Pierre Quiroga and Erwan le Draoulec. "We are relegated far from our initial ambitions, it hurts the heart". The same goes for Breizh Cola, which is one of the southerners. "It's hard to take after so much battle in 18 days," writes Gildas Mahé. “The end will be a bit long and tedious, but we will try not to be the most disappointed in the south. "
"The southerners are a little slower and above all, they always have to jibe, so to cover more miles", explains Francis Le Goff.
Lightness despite everything
However, the short distances between the first 14 - 47 miles on the orthodromy, 130 miles sideways - herald a particularly busy end of the day and evening in Gustavia. "We're pretty sure there won't be a 24 hour gap between the top 14," said Francis Le Goff. “Even RLC Sailing (130 miles from the lead) should cross the line on Monday morning. "
Despite the final battle and its demand, the competitors continued to send images from the edge. At Breizh Cola, Tom Dolan achieved the feat of placing three candles on a cake to celebrate Gildas Mahé's birthday. Nils Palmieri and Julien Villion, for their part, immortalized Friday's aperitif with cod liver and country ham. Finally, we recommend the magnificent images of Arthur Hubert and Clément Commagnac. In a drone, they filmed MonAtoutEnergie.fr in the middle of the ocean, a moment of grace as the sun was setting in the background ...
Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry, the sores on board
Behind the duel between the Northerners and the Southerners, the 4 duos who are in pursuit of them have been dealing with some glitches for several days. Jérôme Samuel and Nicolas Salet (ERISMA - SODES GROUP - TARA OCEAN Foundation) thus faced the breakage of their forestay last weekend. A handful of days later, the Livory brothers blocked a waterway aboard Interaction. And we have learned in recent hours about the misadventures of Estelle Greck and Laurent Givry (RLC Sailing), currently 15th.
