here we go,guys.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but if recent long-range runs of the GFS model are correct, the season could get off to an early start. The GFS model has been predicting that late next week, an area of disturbed weather over Central America will act as the seed to get a tropical storm spinning in the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures there are near 28°C (82°F)—about 0.5°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a hurricane. The subtropical jet stream—which is typically located over the Caribbean in May, creating high wind shear that interferes with hurricane development—is predicted to lift northwards by late next week, creating conditions favorable for tropical cyclone genesis. However, the long range runs of the European model have not been supporting this idea, and the GFS forecasts of a tropical storm in the Caribbean late next week should be viewed as interesting, but improbable—worth lifting one eyebrow at, but not two.