Intriguing weather in 2018

[chris83]

The National Weather Service in Hawaii reported on Wednesday that preliminary data from a rain gauge on the north shore of Kauai at Waipa, one mile west of Hanalei, received 49.69” of rainfall over the 24-hour period ending at 12:45 pm April 15. If verified, this would break the all-time U.S. 24-hour rainfall record of 43.00” in Alvin, Texas set on July 25 – 26, 1979, during Tropical Storm Claudette.

that's 1.25 meter of water ..WOW....incredible

 

[GMP62]

That's just unimaginable...holy cow!

 

[chris83]

A comment about the seaweed landing on the island,as the journal de St Barth covered it this week
cost for the collectivity in 2017 ver a million euros
march 2018:41 tons
1-15th of april:29 tons

Another looming threat for the caribbean islands ..and another reason not to buy a house on the beach.

 

[chris83]

For all the people of St Barth and frequent visitors...some good news

 

[Izzy]

More than 140 children and 200 juvenile llamas - proposed to have been done in hopes of ending torrential rains and other effects of El Niño about 550 years ago.

 

[chris83]

More than 140 children and 200 juvenile llamas - proposed to have been done in hopes of ending torrential rains and other effects of El Niño about 550 years ago.

Are you trying to suggest we should give it a try ? ))

 

[Izzy]

Are you trying to suggest we should give it a try ? ))

Would we if we believed it would work?

Another approach that brings up its own ethical questions - "population engineering, the intentional manipulation of the size and structure of human populations, is a practical and morally justifiable means to help ameliorate the threat of climate change."

The author notes in this NPR feature, reducing global fertility by half a child per woman "could be the thing that saves us" and argues this here:

"If I release a murderer from prison, knowing full well that he intends to kill innocent people, then I bear some responsibility for those deaths — even though the killer is also fully responsible. My having released him doesn’t make him less responsible (he did it!). But his doing it doesn’t eliminate my responsibility either.

Something similar is true, I think, when it comes to having children: Once my daughter is an autonomous agent, she will be responsible for her emissions. But that doesn’t negate my responsibility. Moral responsibility simply isn’t mathematical."

 

[chris83]

Would we if we believed it would work?

The author notes in this NPR feature, reducing global fertility by half a child per woman "could be the thing that saves us" and argues this here:

A real fun debate for endless dinners ))
Rebellion is beginning .Brexit was one sign.You now see protests in Italy or Spain against tourism.(and legal decisions to fight it)
It's also a debate in St Barth

 

[chris83]

The heatwave over north Africa has been quite incredible this winter....no end in sight.
We will see the result soon, with the sand levels over the atlantic.

 

[chris83]

A quick note on the islands

They have started working on the roof in Juliana airport (waterproofing it before the season)
The Delta flight was fully booked (mainly tourists).Very quick to cross immigration and connect as usual.
Quite a lot of sargassum drifting around the island but not massive packs.
1 small yacht in the harbor.....eww....
Lots of traffic and noise linked to rebuilding,building and so on.Trucks everywhere ...The "quiet" island is officially dead ,thank god.
Isola 60% full last night (for 1 service)...food excellent as usual.
2 large groups of young brasilians....The opening of Nikki beach is bringing back the young crowd,finally...Copa has reopened 2 flights a week (and 4 this summer)
According to rumors,bookings are slowly picking up for this summer,and for winter 2019

 

[chris83]

It's official....the blue is back
Bad news:the first tropical system might form this week over Puerto Rico and bring flooding there

 

[Reed]

View attachment 46262

It's official....the blue is back
Bad news:the first tropical system might form this week over Puerto Rico and bring flooding there

When you say this week in Puerto Rico..........does that mean anytime around the 10th?

 

[chris83]

When you say this week in Puerto Rico..........does that mean anytime around the 10th?

[FONT=&quot]Odds appear low at this time, but there is a chance that this system could develop over the weekend into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm. It could become the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: Alberto.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Even if a tropical or subtropical system does not develop, there will be locally heavy rainfall in portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Widespread rainfall totals of greater than 3 inches are possible from Puerto Rico into eastern Cuba and Jamaica, with locally more than 5 inches expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

It should have cleared about for your departure dates,i presume[/FONT]

 

[chris83]

Another prediction out

The Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) Project at Coastal Carolina University anticipates a “normal to above normal” hurricane season in 2018, with a high probability of a landfall on both the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, according to its extended range forecast for the North Atlantic released Wednesday.
Based on climate factors available in April, the HUGO outlook predicts that there will be a range of 11 to 18 named tropical storms (with 15 most likely), with from 5 to 9 (with 7 most likely) becoming hurricanes, and 2 to 5 (with 3 most likely) becoming major hurricanes during the 2018 season (June 1 to Nov. 30).
For both the U.S. East Coast and the U.S. Gulf Coast, the HUGO study predicts a landfall probability range of zero to 2 for both coastlines. The most probable scenario calls for at least one hurricane landfall on the East Coast and at least one hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast during the 2018 season.

The 2 unknown factors (as usual)..El Nino..and the ocean temperature in the atlantic later in the season .

 

[chris83]

A quick post also to celebrate the island ,ROARING BACK TO LIFE
Lots of traffic,traffic jams,noise....A mix of workers,and quite a few tourists too.
Copa airlines has reopened the south american flights.
The amount of construction going on is just incredible...WOW.And it also seems the real estate market is turning red hot.
"St Barth 1970" happened in 2018 but won't happen again in 2019 (unless another major)..HOURRAH.
With several airlines increasing capacity later this year,flying to the island will be much easier.
The island will have ample resources to build hurricane resistant infrastructure.New shelters,electricity,fiber optic and so on.
Fingers crossed for the hurricane season.

 

[chris83]

Hilarious...here we go again.
Why not freeze building on the island ? ))

 

[chris83]

Wondering what it means ,and the implications ?

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...-water-temperatures-may-2018-hurricane-season

 

[chris83]

Carbon dioxide (CO2), the No. 1 greenhouse gas leading to man-made global warming, has reached a dubious new milestone. The level of the gas in the atmosphere, which is measured by instruments on top of Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory, topped 410 parts per million (ppm) for the month of April.This is the highest concentration of the heat-trapping gas ever recorded at the Observatory, where direct measurements have been taking place for more than 60 years, giving us the longest detailed record.

 

[chris83]

No real change...still looking good.
It seems a massive arrival of sargassum is on the way during the next 48 hours...(already visible from my terrasse)

 

[chris83]

A quick updata about food on the island ..best place on the island for the moment ? Fish corner ..