Rain and Wind Heading Your Way

cassidain

Senior Insider
With a W-WNW movement, this tropical disturbance seems to be targeting the little islands. À suivre . . .

two_atl_2d0.png



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
information, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to bring gusty winds,
heavy rainfall, and flooding to portions of the Lesser Antilles
beginning Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci
 
Tammy may be in love 🎶 but I feel it will be an unrequited love as far as SBH is concerned.
Saturday sometime appears to be when Tammy will come avisitin', likely as a Cat 1 hurricane.
Capture d’écran 2023-10-19 à 2.50.40 PM.png
 
hopefully her grammar is better than JM’s 😅
FYI - heavy rains expected Friday and Saturday. The heavy winds will drive waves towards the desal plant, and may disrupts its operations again, thus the water conservation measures.



From: sarah olivier <sarah.olivier@comstbarth.fr>
Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2023 4:09 PM
To: presse <presse@comstbarth.fr>; conseil territorial <conseil.territorial@comstbarth.fr>
Cc: administratif police <administratif.police@comstbarth.fr>
Subject:Tempête TAMMY - Arrêté du Président portant interdiction temporaire du remplissage des piscines et du lavage des voitures par le réseau public de distribution d’eau ainsi que des usages non essentiels de l'eau provenant dudit réseau.

Bonjour à tous,

Je vous prie de bien vouloir trouver ci-joint l'arrêté du Président portant interdiction temporaire du remplissage des piscines et du lavage des voitures par le réseau public de distribution d’eau ainsi que des usages non essentiels de l'eau provenant dudit réseau.

Restant à votre disposition.
Bien à vous

SARAH OLIVIER

Secrétariat des Elus

sarah.olivier@comstbarth.fr
 
From Le Journal:

Hurricane Tammy - Voyager announces a change in schedule and discontinued rotations. At the same time, the airport management plans a probable stop of air traffic for Saturday and Sunday.
 
No ferries either, we are effectively cut off from the world.. and the airport in Guadeloupe is closed as well.. not sure if they would send a helicopter for an emergency evacuation tonight or not as we are not yet on red alert...
 
The 06:16 update, as reported by Le News, and translated by Google. The alert level is expected to be raised from Orange to Red at Noon.

Alertness level: ORANGE
Danger: Cyclone
Météo France monitoring bulletin n°9 for the Northern Islands:
Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy Episode n°13-IN
Issued on: Saturday October 21, 2023 at 6:16 a.m. legal time (i.e. 10:16 UTC) By: Guadeloupe Meteorological Center
Date and time of the next bulletin: Saturday 10/21/23 around 12 p.m. legal time.

Start of event: in progress
Estimated end of event: Monday 10/23/2023 evening at the earliest.

Current situation :
Category 1 Hurricane TAMMY
Estimated position on 10/21/2023 at 09 UTC: 15.2 N 60.4 W - Distance from Saint-Martin to
center of the phenomenon: 428 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 394 km
Movement: northwest 305 degrees at 15 km/h - Pressure in the center: 991 hPa
Maximum wind over 1 minute: 70 knots (130 km/h) Gusts: 85 knots (160 km/h)
Tammy, a category 1 hurricane, has a north-northwest trajectory and, according to the most likely scenario,
at the current time, would put the TAMMY center in the immediate vicinity of St Barthélémy in the evening of
Saturday or even night from Saturday to Sunday.

Forecasts :
Little change since the last forecast
Heavy rain and thunderstorms
Sometimes sustained and stormy showers regularly cross our islands at the front of the system. They
are likely to intensify from Saturday evening with a peak of rainy activity expected on Sunday and Monday
Morning. Quantities will be specified later.

Winds:
The East-South-East wind blows at 35/45 km/h on average, it strengthens then orients east-northeast this
afternoon. It could further strengthen this evening to reach 90 to 120 km/h on average with gusts
at 140 km/h, in case the center of TAMMY passes closest to our islands, which, currently, is not
not the most likely scenario.
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, it passes from the northeast to the west then to the southwest.
Sunday during the day, he moved to the southern sector while maintaining a steady pace.

Sea :
The sea is currently rough to rough with waves of 2m20 to 2m50 per easterly swell. She's going to dig in
tomorrow Saturday to become strong with lows of 2m80 around noon then 3m50 to 4m or even 4m50 in the
night from Saturday to Sunday on the Atlantic coast. It should gradually amortize on Sunday then
Monday while remaining strong and with a swell moving to the southeast.
These forecasts are subject to change depending on the evolution of the system.

Data observed:
Sea: Over the last few hours the buoy has measured dips of 2m20 to 2m40 by east swell and a period of 6
Seconds
Rain: 1 mm
Wind: Wind gusts of 76 km/h recorded in Grand Case and 63 km/h in Gustavia

Individual behavioral measures recommended by the prefecture:
CYCLONE ORANGE WARNING: BE VERY CAREFUL!
OMI1: Listen to weather reports and instructions broadcast (internet, newsstand, radio and television).
OMI2: Prepare homes:
1) Consolidation,
2) Protection of openings,
3) Sheltering and keeping personal objects and documents out of water,
4) Organization of storage of food and various materials…,
5) Disconnection of the rainwater tank filling systems and protection of the tanks where applicable
applicable.
OMI3: Protect watercraft.
OMI4: Make final purchases to acquire autonomy for several days.
OMI5: Refuel your vehicle.
OMI6: Provide a sum of cash to be able to purchase basic necessities.
OMI7: Protect stocks of goods and perishable foods in businesses and put
safe construction sites for companies (dismantling of cranes, aerial installations and
scaffolding…).
OMI8: Protect herds, livestock and farm animals.
 
so far just a little rain, and sea starting to get a little "agitated" as they say... so it's still wait and see...
 
A decision to elevate the threat level from red to purple (curfew/confinement) is being considered, and may be made at 8PM.
 
From Le Journal:

Hurricane Tammy - Northern Islands remains on red alert. The prefecture indicates the beginning of effects from the passage of Category 1 Hurricane Tammy is estimated between midnight and 2 a.m.
 
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