SBH-Related Coronavirus Information

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It’s been a few weeks since I’ve seen the usual update from ARS Guadeloupe. This was published today:

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France is imposing nationwide COVID tightening. No groups larger than 6 persons, stated in multiple ways, including private family groups.

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As of Oct 19, CDC has placed SBH at level 3 - avoid non-essential travel

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-saint-barthelemy

This doesn't make sense:



How the CDC determines risk level

[FONT=&quot]For foreign countries and US Territories with 300,000 people or less, CDC reviews two primary criteria[/FONT]

  • New COVID-19 case counts, and
  • New case trajectory
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html

[FONT=&quot]

CDC uses [/FONT]
World Health Organization COVID-19 surveillance dataexternal icon to measure virus transmission rates; we monitor this information every day. Population size determines the specific criteria CDC uses.

[FONT=Open Sans, apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, Segoe UI, Helvetica Neue, arial, sans-serif]If you go to St Barth on the site they link it shows zero new cases. If the criteria they use is based only on new cases how can it be considered a higher risk than it was before with zero new cases?[/FONT]

https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/bl



What am I missing?
 
This doesn't make sense:



How the CDC determines risk level

For foreign countries and US Territories with 300,000 people or less, CDC reviews two primary criteria

  • New COVID-19 case counts, and
  • New case trajectory
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html



CDC uses
World Health Organization COVID-19 surveillance dataexternal icon to measure virus transmission rates; we monitor this information every day. Population size determines the specific criteria CDC uses.

If you go to St Barth on the site they link it shows zero new cases. If the criteria they use is based only on new cases how can it be considered a higher risk than it was before with zero new cases?

https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/bl



What am I missing?

St Barts just reinstated restrictions as to dining, masks and other activities. Maybe the CDC picked that up.
 
St Barts just reinstated restrictions as to dining, masks and other activities. Maybe the CDC picked that up.

Could be. Technically they don't state that new case counts and new case trajectory are the ONLY criteria, just that they are the PRIMARY criteria.
 
Jim,

I've been trying to get as close to the source as possible when posting COVID information, and the best source that I know of for St Barth numbers is ARS Guadeloupe, the Regional Health Agency which covers Guadeloupe and "the Northern Islands", St Martin and St Barthélemy. I wouldn't mind a touch more consistency in the timing and the periods covered in the ARS reports, but I post what I find. Here's a summary of what I've found over the last few months:

July 18 – July 24 – 7 cumulative cases, +0 from the previous report
July 25 – July 31 – 9 cumulative cases, +2 from the previous report
July 31 – August 5 – 10 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report

August 5 – August 8 – 13 cumulative cases, +3 from the last report
August 8 – August 11 – No change from the previous report
August 12 – No change from the previous report
August 8 – August 14 – No change from the previous report
August 14 -August 17 – 16 cumulative cases, +3 from the previous report
August 15 – August 21 – No change from the previous report
August 22? - August 25 – 17 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report
August 22 -August 28 – 18 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report
August 28 – September 2 – No change
August 29 – September 4 – 21 cumulative cases, +3 from the previous report

September 5 – September 13 - Gap, no report
September 14 – September (no range given) 23 cumulative cases, +2 from the previous report
September 14 – September 20 – 45 cumulative cases, +22 from the previous report
September 21 – September 27 – 54 cumulative cases, +9 from the previous report
September 28 - October 4 - Gap, no report

October 5 – October 11 – 67 cumulative cases, +13 from the previous report

The numbers for the month of September and the first half of October may be the source of the CDC's change in status.
 
That's an awesome summary Kevin. That could be it. If so maybe it drops back down with the next report or maybe they look at the trend of the last month or two and see that it's still pointing up
 
Jim, I've been trying to get as close to the source as possible... Here's a summary of what I've found over the last few months:...

ARS should put you to work while you are busy pacing the cage...

CDC also factors hospital bed and ventilator availability as secondary criteria into the alerts - i have no idea how they would weigh on-island (0 ventilators, i believe) vs. referral center (Guadeloupe and St -Martin) information.
 
Jim,

I've been trying to get as close to the source as possible when posting COVID information, and the best source that I know of for St Barth numbers is ARS Guadeloupe, the Regional Health Agency which covers Guadeloupe and "the Northern Islands", St Martin and St Barthélemy. I wouldn't mind a touch more consistency in the timing and the periods covered in the ARS reports, but I post what I find. Here's a summary of what I've found over the last few months:

July 18 – July 24 – 7 cumulative cases, +0 from the previous report
July 25 – July 31 – 9 cumulative cases, +2 from the previous report
July 31 – August 5 – 10 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report

August 5 – August 8 – 13 cumulative cases, +3 from the last report
August 8 – August 11 – No change from the previous report
August 12 – No change from the previous report
August 8 – August 14 – No change from the previous report
August 14 -August 17 – 16 cumulative cases, +3 from the previous report
August 15 – August 21 – No change from the previous report
August 22? - August 25 – 17 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report
August 22 -August 28 – 18 cumulative cases, +1 from the previous report
August 28 – September 2 – No change
August 29 – September 4 – 21 cumulative cases, +3 from the previous report

September 5 – September 13 - Gap, no report
September 14 – September (no range given) 23 cumulative cases, +2 from the previous report
September 14 – September 20 – 45 cumulative cases, +22 from the previous report
September 21 – September 27 – 54 cumulative cases, +9 from the previous report
September 28 - October 4 - Gap, no report

October 5 – October 11 – 67 cumulative cases, +13 from the previous report

The numbers for the month of September and the first half of October may be the source of the CDC's change in status.

That's interesting too see, for sure. Thanks for finding and sharing all of that, Kevin, and, Izzy, for the additional input.
 
From the Collectivité - If there were only 3 new cases in the week from October 4 - October 11 then that suggests that there were 10 new cases in the missing week of September 28 - October 4.

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Attached below is the October 12-18 update from ARS Guadeloupe. It shows a cumulative total of 77 cases on St Barth, +10 from the previous ARS report.


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The Collectivity has corrected the most recent ARS report and states there were only 5 news cases last week, three of which are arriving seasonal workers. what could possibly go wrong?

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Here's how Le Journal reported the disagreement on stats, translation by Google:

Covid: the Collectivity corrects the prefecture figures
22/10/2020

Between the ARS, Public Health France, the prefecture and the Collectivity, the figures are traveling ... According to the Collectivity, the system for counting the number of Covid cases is distorted by the SI-DEP system used by the health authorities.

She then went out of her way, and this Thursday, October 22, published all the figures from the Bio Pôle laboratory, the only one to carry out screening on the island, since April. The table does not mention ten cases discovered between October 12 and 18, as the prefecture announced yesterday, but five.

The Collectivity specifies that five other cases were detected between Monday 19 and Wednesday 21 October, including three concerning seasonal workers who carried out their test on D + 7.

The original story can be found at https://www.journaldesaintbarth.com...s-chiffres-de-la-prefecture-202010222016.html

Here's the accompanying graphic:

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Attached below is the October 19-25 update from ARS Guadeloupe. It shows a cumulative total of 83 cases on St Barth, +6 from the previous ARS report.

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From the Prefecture, translation by Google:

The President of the Republic Emmanuel MACRON has just announced the establishment of a second containment throughout the national territory. This aims to stem the spread of the covid-19 epidemic. The overseas prefects can adapt these measures to suit local situations.

Since the beginning of March, Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy have respectively 566 and 83 confirmed; 10 people died. During the week of October 19 to October 25, 25 additional cases were recorded in Saint-Martin and 6 in Saint-Barthélemy. The incidence rates (number of people positive for covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants) and positivity (number of people positive for covid-19 on the number of tests carried out in one week) decreased compared to previous weeks but are , for Saint-Martin, always above the alert threshold.

Two people are currently hospitalized at the Louis Constant Fleming Hospital Center and medical evacuations take place every week to the CHUs of Guadeloupe and Martinique. More than ever, efforts must be continued.

Given the health situation and the proximity of the tourist season, Sylvie FEUCHER, Prefect of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin has decided, for the moment, not to take new measures.
Those that are already in place remain in force:
• drinking establishments and restaurants close at midnight;
• gatherings of groups of more than 6 people are prohibited on public roads;
• gatherings of more than 6 people in establishments open to the public must be declared to the Prefecture;
• wearing a mask is compulsory in all establishments open to the public and in the busiest streets;
• establishments open to the public must apply the rule of 4m² per person;
• Restaurants can continue to welcome customers without exceeding the number of 6 people per table, wearing a mask is mandatory for staff and customers who travel and all customers must be seated.

The entire population is invited to avoid private events and to understand the stakes of bad individual behavior for the economic future of the island.
The permanent objective pursued by the Prefecture since the start of the crisis has been to control the epidemic, the success of the tourist season and the restart of the local economy. Without the strong and united involvement of each of us, the virus will continue to circulate and grow. Despite repeated calls for individual responsibility from the Prefecture and health authorities, parties were organized on the beaches of the island last weekend; some establishments continue not to respect the essential rules followed by the majority; they endanger the health situation. This irresponsible behavior must end. Administrative procedures are underway to close the establishments concerned.

Each citizen of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy has in his hands the responsibility and the opportunity to contain the epidemic by continuing to apply barrier gestures, wearing a mask and limiting his social circle.

If the health situation were to degenerate due to individual behavior, a containment measure would be immediately adopted.
 
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