Sint Maarten - SXM - 24-Hour Curfew

KevinS said:
As of midnight tonight, Sint Maarten, the Dutch side of the dual-country island of Saint-Martin/Sint Maarten, is under a 24-hour curfew for the next two weeks.

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islan...d-two-week-shutdown-to-start-midnight-tonight
Click to expand...

The real number of cases on the Dutch-side can be expected to be very much higher than the 25 recorded in the article. With 4 deaths reported, an optimistic projection might be 1000 cases at this time.

A mortality can be considered as indicative of 100 or more infections 2-3 weeks previously (estimated mortality rate of about 1.0% and 2-3 wk lag between infection and death). The real number can't be known but exponential growth of the degree shown elsewhere suggests 100 cases turns in to at least 300 by the time one death is reported.

This TED interview explains exponential growth as it pertains to this pandemic.
 
Izzy said:
The real number of cases on the Dutch-side can be expected to be very much higher than the 25 recorded in the article. With 4 deaths reported, an optimistic projection might be 1000 cases at this time.

A mortality can be considered as indicative of 100 or more infections 2-3 weeks previously (estimated mortality rate of about 1.0% and 2-3 wk lag between infection and death). The real number can't be known but exponential growth of the degree shown elsewhere suggests 100 cases turns in to at least 300 by the time one death is reported.

This TED interview explains exponential growth as it pertains to this pandemic.
Click to expand...

I did not watch the interview, however, I think the mortality rate is a bit higher. I think the US is seeing 2%-3% mortality rate.
 
steelpe said:
I did not watch the interview, however, I think the mortality rate is a bit higher. I think the US is seeing 2%-3% mortality rate.
Click to expand...

The mortality rate is unknown. Best estimates at this time are that it is around 1%, probably lower and perhaps in the range of 0.6%. - 0.7%.

The true mortality rate will never be known with complete certainty but will be most accurately determined after this wave is suppressed. Analyses will need to factor in cases that are not detected now (e.g, asymptomatic, minimally symptomatic and others not meeting criteria for testing), include eventual outcomes for cases that have been detected but not yet resolved, account for deaths that have been incorrectly designated (both as to and not to the virus).and other considerations.
 
Izzy said:
The mortality rate is unknown. Best estimates at this time are that it is around 1%, probably lower and perhaps in the range of 0.6%. - 0.7%.

The true mortality rate will never be known with complete certainty but will be most accurately determined after this wave is suppressed. Analyses will need to factor in cases that are not detected now (e.g, asymptomatic, minimally symptomatic and others not meeting criteria for testing), include eventual outcomes for cases that have been detected but not yet resolved, account for deaths that have been incorrectly designated (both as to and not to the virus).and other considerations.
Click to expand...


OK, I'll give you that point. I was mostly looking at the diagnosed cases vs the deaths. It would be interesting to have the population of the entire island tested to gauge the extent of the virus and maybe get some true number (as proposed by the local gvt in another thread). However, SXM would probably be a better candidate for that vs SBH which has been cut off for quite some time.
 
steelpe said:
OK, I'll give you that point. I was mostly looking at the diagnosed cases vs the deaths. It would be interesting to have the population of the entire island tested to gauge the extent of the virus and maybe get some true number (as proposed by the local gvt in another thread). However, SXM would probably be a better candidate for that vs SBH which has been cut off for quite some time.
Click to expand...


The issue is that the test they want to do here would only tell if you were positive at the time of the test... not if you already had the virus and were in theory immune...
and you could still get it the day or week after the test as there would be people not yet tested... it's a bit confusing at the moment.
 
andynap said:
Residents got only 12 hours notice

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/pfp-questions-jacobs-on-abrupt-nature-of-total-lockdown
Click to expand...

yes it was rumored that this MIGHT happen, but the short notice was inexcusable in my opinion.

the dutch gov handled this virus response wrong from the get go, and then now they are trying to play catch up by implementing a total lockdown at the expense of many of their residents.

this will not turn out well, people without access to food/bread may take actions that they would not normally take. can the residents who did not prepare for this last for 2 weeks with 24/7 lockdown , also the possibility of the lockdown getting extended, only time will tell.

I understand that they have a detention facility setup for people who break this curfew, I guess if you get hungry, the detention center might be a last resort oasis.

shades of Les Miserables.
 
The prefect in Guadeloupe has announced the same kind of 24 hour curfew there on Easter weekend, people cannot go out anywhere (except essential work or medical emergency) from 2pm on Saturday, April 11 thru 7am Tuesday, April 14... grocery stores will be closed during that time as well.
I guess they were expecting people to ignore the confinement for the Easter holiday...They already have an overnight curfew of 8pm to 5am!
 
the police in sxm had gotten so many emergency requests for food that they are overwhelmed, so now they are allowing grocery delivery if you can contact the store via whatsapp. smart move on their part, credit cards only accepted.
 
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