wish the media would share this

didier

Senior Insider
113,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus, the media should be sharing this, not just the death toll, but I guess this news is not sensational enough.
 
I've found the most up to date dashboard is maintained by Johns Hopkins

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

screenshop as of 04/01/20

Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 9.30.24 AM.jpg
 
113,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus, the media should be sharing this, not just the death toll, but I guess this news is not sensational enough.

Lisa and I were discussing this last night.

For sure, the media skew more towards the tragic numbers, etc. We were saying that we wish they would stress the greater prospect of a positive outcome.

However, as we made our way to bottle of wine #2, we also recgonize the need to scare people into submission so they finally "get it" and STFAH!
 
I've found the most up to date dashboard is maintained by Johns Hopkins...

The Hopkins site and others using most recently reported numbers is really like looking in a rear view mirror for many reasons - an important one being lag between infection and reported end point (diagnosis or death). Doubling rate in the US has been on the order of 2-3 days so anything that causes a lag is significant.

It is very hard to predict, especially the future, but the Covid-19 site from UWashington Medicine has gotten a lot of attention and does a good job of showing projections for the US and individual states in easily understandable formats. The numbers shown reflect projections IF all social distancing listed are met. The numbers go up markedly if they are not. Prijections have been updated daily.

The Kinsa thermometer site has also drawn attention as an interesting possibility for seeing how things are heading in a given area (providing they have enough thermometers in that area...).
 
That UWash site is very informative. Thanks for sharing. Just heard that in the Commonwealth of Virginia there are 308 CV-19 patients in ICU and 208 require ventilators. First indication of that ratio anywhere that I have seen.

Several roadmaps of the next phases of the pandemic have been developed and talked about. This one by AEI seems very comprehensive and indicates the need for therapeutics and/or vaccine before ending social distancing.
 
The AEI analysis is a good one and concordant with others with variabilities to predicting timing etc....

We are looking for the light but unfortunately we are just entering the tunnel...
 
The Hopkins site and others using most recently reported numbers is really like looking in a rear view mirror for many reasons - an important one being lag between infection and reported end point (diagnosis or death). Doubling rate in the US has been on the order of 2-3 days so anything that causes a lag is significant.

It is very hard to predict, especially the future, but the Covid-19 site from UWashington Medicine has gotten a lot of attention and does a good job of showing projections for the US and individual states in easily understandable formats. The numbers shown reflect projections IF all social distancing listed are met. The numbers go up markedly if they are not. Prijections have been updated daily.

The Kinsa thermometer site has also drawn attention as an interesting possibility for seeing how things are heading in a given area (providing they have enough thermometers in that area...).

Izzy, there's some scary stuff there, from sources which are recognized to be reliable. Thanks for posting it. [Looking for a bigger rock to roll in front of my cave]
 
These recommended sites (Hopkins, AEI) contain sobering information that is not yet being promulgated to the general public. For some like us, physical distancing appears to be the new normal and travel seems out of the question for a long time to come.
 
These recommended sites (Hopkins, AEI) contain sobering information that is not yet being promulgated to the general public. For some like us, physical distancing appears to be the new normal and travel seems out of the question for a long time to come.

The AEI approach has not been adopted, but the diferent phases seem like the reasonable way to proceed, without going backwards on containment. Getting to Phase III, and back to a somewhat normal existence, reguire therapeutics and vaccine. My question has always been: What assurances/protections would I feel necessary to get on a plane and travel to another country?
 
The AEI approach has not been adopted, but the diferent phases seem like the reasonable way to proceed, without going backwards on containment. Getting to Phase III, and back to a somewhat normal existence, reguire therapeutics and vaccine. My question has always been: What assurances/protections would I feel necessary to get on a plane and travel to another country?

Perhaps only knowledge that you have developed immunity would be sufficient... Seeing close hand what the disease can do across all age ranges would probably be enough for most to choose not to roll the dice and get the disease though.

As your concern suggests, societal recovery cannot be decreed and will be governed by the level of comfort individuals feel in easing social distancing. The important consideration here being that successful suppression of the current wave will leave vastly insufficient population immunity to avoid resurgences. I suspect this will lead to another divide in our societies - between those who have developed immunity (duration uncertain but probably at least for a few years in most) and those who have not.

Models generally indicate variable levels of social distancing will likely be needed through at least mid 2021. As the AEI approach suggests, measures can be loosened and tightened if guided by much improved surveillance. Many believe that there will be seasonality with less transmission in summer (perhaps optimistic) and that winter 2020 will bring a resurgence.

Vaccine goal of 12-18 months is optimistic - many challenges, not the least of which will be showing that specific vaccines do not increase lung damage (as occurred in preclinical uses of SARS and MERS vaccines, likely due to an immune response).

Repurposing existing drugs is the best chance for earlier help but showing effects that can provide confident reassurance will still take months to a year.

New drug development and validation will likely take longer than vaccine development and validation.
 
Perhaps only knowledge that you have developed immunity would be sufficient....

A serological test for immunity might give me the confidence to travel, but overseas destinations would rightfully demand an international standard of certification. I still have my WHO Yellow Card in my desk drawer.
 
the UK is developing a test that anyone can buy on amazon UK to test to see if you have antibodies to the coronavirus. They are speeding up the approval process so it should be available soon. It is not a test for coronavirus, just a test to see if you have had the virus and now have antibodies against it. They believe that if you test positive for the antibodies, then you may have had the virus and did not know it. The Uk believes this test will help expedite the workers going back to work.
 
the UK is developing a test that anyone can buy on amazon UK to test to see if you have antibodies to the coronavirus. They are speeding up the approval process so it should be available soon. It is not a test for coronavirus, just a test to see if you have had the virus and now have antibodies against it. They believe that if you test positive for the antibodies, then you may have had the virus and did not know it. The Uk believes this test will help expedite the workers going back to work.

The UK test

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days


Other serological test news

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
 
The serology tests that are in various stages of readiness will need to be validated through use before they can be applied confidently. The tests used in the US will have some sort of "not evaluated by.FDA" disclaimer until validated. Among the important considerations will be that the tests are not picking up immunity to other coronaviruses that cause colds (the one highlighted in the STAT article is claimed not to have this problem).

Regarding the British roll out of home testing at this stage of ongoing high levels of local transmission, an additional consideration is that a positive serology test (detecting antibodies made by our immune system) can occur while contagious depending on type of antibody tested for. In other words, one might need to be positive by serology (human antibodies) and negative by nasal swab (test for viral antigen) to be considered as having recovered in the current setting.

Serology tests will be used in determining true extent of this wave of the pandemic. Accepting the range of potential numbers being talked about now, less (and likely very much less) than 10% - 20% of the US population can be expected to develop immunity during this round. If St Barth succeeds in minimizing local transmission, the island will have even lower population immunity. The widespread testing that M. Magras is hoping to have implemented while few cases have been detected (post 109 from Kevin) could greatly help limit transmission. Minimal population immunity would raise issues regarding reopening the island but I think that is an outcome all should be happy to reach.
 

"New Zealand’s next challenge: once the virus is eliminated, how to keep it that way.

The government won’t be able to allow people free entry into New Zealand until the virus has stopped circulating globally or a vaccine has been developed, Baker said. But with strict border control, restrictions could be gradually relaxed, and life inside New Zealand could return to almost normal

Ardern has said her government is considering mandatory quarantine for New Zealanders returning to the country post-lockdown. “I really want a watertight system at our border,” she said this week, “and I think we can do better on that.”"
 
U Washington site downgraded fatality projections from 2-2.5 MM to 60K yesterday...for the US.

Last flu season on record (2018-19) was what? 80K?

Currently we have 14K +- fatalities in the US.

I think we need to keep masks, gloves sanitizer and social distance in place but open the country UP ASAP.

Some areas are severely impacted. Others? Not so much. Do it state by state as appropriate, but let's get going again!

(Driving FL to Fire Island next week. Mask, gloves, sanitizer and off we go!)
 
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