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Thread: June trip

  1. #1
    pks is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Nov 2004 Raleigh N.C. Posts: 122

    June trip

    We have our yearly trip scheduled for the beginning of june with villa rental thru st barts properties. We are still over 60 days out before final payment is due and we can reschedule for next year. I know no one has a crystal ball on this debacle and I'm thinking I can not see an end to this before that date. I have not checked with AA yet to see if we could reschedule to next year. I would appreciate any input from forum members and particular ones that live on the island as to your feelings. What would you do? Thanks

  2. #2
    didier is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2005 flamands Posts: 4,942

    Re: June trip

    not sure right now. I have heard that schools on sbh will be closed until may 4.

    If that is any indicator on the situation here on the island right now.

    however that could change depending on if the 2 cases of the coronavirus that are quarantined right now test negative soon and if there are no new cases. would I keep my reservations if it were me? It would depend on how flexible the rental people are and the airlines.

  3. #3
    TJH is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Jan 2013 North of Chicago Posts: 234

    Re: June trip

    I'd sit on it for a bit. Our experience in the last week (doesn't it feel like it's been longer than that?) for our family's upcoming scheduled travels is that the closer you get to the departure date, the easier it is to cancel or reschedule. Between the five of us, we've canceled five trips involving AA, Delta, Marriott, Hertz, Airbnb and VRBO. I wouldn't even try to contact AA or any other airline right now for something in June. They're overwhelmed. You're likely to be on hold for hours and then told to call back. I hope you get to take your June trip...we're missing ours next month...

  4. #4
    chiz is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Sep 2017 Richmond, Va Posts: 57

    Re: June trip

    our trip was scheduled for late March (now)….I waited until officially our AA flight was cancelled.....AA was professionally and ethically very good....they issued a full refund for our cancelled flight with not a peep about re-scheduling...overall it was a very, very easy process. Same scenario with our villa...very understanding and very professional (we just re-booked for next year...they used part of the money for this years villa for the 2021 deposit and we opted for a refund on the remaining balance). St Barth Commuter also was great (as usual) ….we just took a credit for a future flight. Odile at Gumbs was, as usual, helping and understanding...the rental car was simply cancelled. One thing that surprised me was that the part of our travel insurance that covers medical emergencies, etc is also being refunded. Overall, a rewarding experience for a disappointing situation.
    Chiz
    Richmond, VA

  5. #5
    KevinS is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jul 2003 Boston Posts: 20,222

    Re: June trip

    Keep an eye on the AA site for adjustments to their Change policy. At present, a June trip may be outside of their window for fee-free changes. The rules may be different if your AA flight is to SXM than if your flight is to SJU. Also, if AA cancels or makes significant changes to your flight then you should get a refund. However, if you are the one to initiate the change, you’ll be subject to the Change policy in effect at that time, which may include a fee, and may result in a credit usable only for a limited time.

  6. #6
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 570

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by pks View Post
    We have our yearly trip scheduled for the beginning of june with villa rental thru st barts properties...
    Two things to consider in figuring out how likely you will be able to go.

    Expect at least 2 months of strict and soon to be stricter measures in the US. It took a bit over 1 month after quarantine was authoritatively enforced (1/23) on Wuhan to break the peak of the epidemic there. Now, 2 months out from the quarantine decree, Wuhan is issuing contested reports of no local transmission and pondering how to safely reopen. Neither the US nor France has been/can be as authoritarian as China and the pandemic is still taking hold in many parts of the US and ramping up in France.

    Will St Barth allow tourists in June? If St Barth is fortunate enough to contain or at least minimize viral transmission, the island will be faced with a very difficult decision of how/when to allow entry from affected areas where transmission may still be ongoing. The only strong protective weapon is immunity in the population. Until sufficient immunity has developed in the island's population, the island will be susceptible to an outbreak. The only way to develop immunity is through infection until a vaccine becomes available.

  7. #7
    steelpe is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2010 Posts: 420

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
    Two things to consider in figuring out how likely you will be able to go.

    Expect at least 2 months of strict and soon to be stricter measures in the US. It took a bit over 1 month after quarantine was authoritatively enforced (1/23) on Wuhan to break the peak of the epidemic there. Now, 2 months out from the quarantine decree, Wuhan is issuing contested reports of no local transmission and pondering how to safely reopen. Neither the US nor France has been/can be as authoritarian as China and the pandemic is still taking hold in many parts of the US and ramping up in France.

    Will St Barth allow tourists in June? If St Barth is fortunate enough to contain or at least minimize viral transmission, the island will be faced with a very difficult decision of how/when to allow entry from affected areas where transmission may still be ongoing. The only strong protective weapon is immunity in the population. Until sufficient immunity has developed in the island's population, the island will be susceptible to an outbreak. The only way to develop immunity is through infection until a vaccine becomes available.
    I think this is your answer (see above). I'm sure SBH will be fine in June, however, they may not be letting in flights from where ever you are coming from. If they still are not letting people into SBH at 61 days I would say it's time to postpone your trip (unless you are a gambling person and want to risk it).

    We were thinking of a trip in 2/21. We were ready to pull the trigger on a villa, then everything fell apart. Our trip is now on indefinite hold. The US is on trajectory to surpass China in the number of confirmed cases (that will be embarrassing). So I think it is overly optimistic to think a trip in June will be possible.

  8. #8
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 6,453

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by steelpe View Post
    \The US is on trajectory to surpass China in the number of confirmed cases (that will be embarrassing).
    1. we have no idea how many cases and deaths there really are in the "PRC"

    2. mortality rate in US now slightly over 1%. not the 3-4% originally feared. in Germany less than 1/2%

    3. therapeutics may well send those even lower.

    4. at a certain point the administration will re-open the economy to avoid a cure worse than the disease.
    Fils du Sud - Ministre de la Santé

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  9. #9
    didier is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2005 flamands Posts: 4,942

    Re: June trip

    I looked at prc and thought where is that?

    then I realized you meant peoples republic of china. lol. why not just say china? its two more letters?

    just my thought for the day, no ill intent at all, so hope this answer is taken in the "now I am in a locked down country" context for which it was meant. I really have nothing else to do.

    spring cleaning does not start till later this afternoon for me.

  10. #10
    Karen is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2007 Chester, VA Posts: 1,111

    Re: June trip

    We did not schedule a trip in late June, as we normally do. I don’t know if it helps, but we were headed to Florida in April and lost $ on that. People are just not going to their destinations right now. Rough times, right now

  11. #11
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 570

    Re: June trip

    Any discussion of mortality rate needs to be placed in context of the number of cases presenting in a given time period and the per-capita number of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators etc.. Right now, we are at very high risk of heightened mortality while the pandemic surges above our capacity: Germany has about 3X, France about 2X, and China about 1.3X US capacity which is similar to Italy's. Germany is working to double capacity.

    Regarding the current state of therapeutics: philosophers have long discussed why hope was in Pandora's jar and why some versions of the myth keep her in the jar and others set her free with the rest of the contents...

    I don't want to send this thread further off topic so will not comment beyond that.

  12. #12
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 6,453

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
    I don't want to send this thread further off topic so will not comment beyond that.
    yes, i agree with that sentiment.

    we’ll all have to wait and see what happens.
    Fils du Sud - Ministre de la Santé

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  13. #13
    lvbookworm is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Feb 2019 Las Vegas, NV Posts: 123

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinS View Post
    Keep an eye on the AA site for adjustments to their Change policy. At present, a June trip may be outside of their window for fee-free changes. The rules may be different if your AA flight is to SXM than if your flight is to SJU. Also, if AA cancels or makes significant changes to your flight then you should get a refund. However, if you are the one to initiate the change, you’ll be subject to the Change policy in effect at that time, which may include a fee, and may result in a credit usable only for a limited time.
    PKS - Kevin has great advice. We were scheduled to fly to Maui on April 4 on Hawaiian Airlines. Even though we knew we wouldn't be taking the trip, we held tight and waited for the airline to "blink". They canceled the flight, which allowed us to take a full refund instead of a credit for future use (which, for us, would be VERY hard to use by the end of this year). We also have a trip scheduled to SBH early June, and are planning to just sit tight for now.

  14. #14
    PeterLynn is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Mar 2014 Houston Posts: 344

    Re: June trip

    I'm starting to worry that even if France starts lifting restrictions, they may not allow Americans for several months, given how our "curve" is looking.

  15. #15
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 6,453

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterLynn View Post
    I'm starting to worry that even if France starts lifting restrictions, they may not allow Americans for several months, given how our "curve" is looking.
    their present curve much worse than our's. new cv deaths in France 186 with population of 65MM. new cv deaths in US 89 with population of 331 MM.
    Fils du Sud - Ministre de la Santé

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  16. #16
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 570

    Re: June trip

    Quote Originally Posted by cassidain View Post
    their present curve much worse than our's. new cv deaths in France 186 with population of 65MM. new cv deaths in US 89 with population of 331 MM.
    Be careful not to mix raw numbers with curves.

    Comparing tiotal number of cases or mortalities relative to total popukation is at best misleading at this stage of the pandemic. It can carry meaning much later.

    Curves (and raw numbers) can be viewed at worldometer.com - France here and USA here.

    The rate of rise in the curves for cases is faster for the US.

    Mortality rate will be dependent on how much the health care system remains able to deal with the influx of patients as mentioned before. At the site referenced above, note the French mortality curve steepened at the time M. Macron responded by increased restrictions. The US curve suggests a similar change at present. We have not reached, but are fast approaching, a tipping point at some US locations.

    Again, I will retreat to my bunker in hopes this thread can be returned to and remain focused on June or other trips, even if that necessitates this post being deleted at the discretion of our moderators...

  17. #17
    KevinS is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jul 2003 Boston Posts: 20,222

    Re: June trip

    Let’s start a fresh thread if needed.

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