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Thread: Hurricane Jerry - NHC Update

  1. #1
    KevinS is online now
    Senior Insider Joined: Jul 2003 Boston Posts: 19,608

    Hurricane Jerry - NHC Update

    Below is the 11AM 9/19 update from the NHC regarding now-Hurricane Jerry. The cyclone is forecast to track north of St Barth, but there is still a 30% chance of tropical storm force winds, and several inches of rain as well.


    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 191454
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

    ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
    ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Barbuda
    * Anguilla
    * St. Maarten
    * St. Martin
    * St. Barthelemy
    * Saba and St. Eustatius

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
    the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
    today.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
    near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
    motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
    days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
    north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
    Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
    day before some weakening begins this weekend.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
    (75 km).

    An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
    minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    areas by early Friday.

    RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
    with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
    northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
    forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
    with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
    Puerto Rico.

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
    portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These
    swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

  2. #2
    KevinS is online now
    Senior Insider Joined: Jul 2003 Boston Posts: 19,608

    Re: Hurricane Jerry - NHC Update

    Here's the 11PM NHC update. It looks like the forecast track of Jerry has shifted North a hair or two, and every bit helps. There appears to be a less than 10% chance of Tropical Storm Force winds on St Barth, but there will be winds. There will also be rain, hopefully more of the 1"-3" range, rather than the 4"-6" range

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 200243
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

    ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
    ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * St. Maarten
    * St. Martin
    * St. Barthelemy
    * Saba and St. Eustatius

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
    the progress of Jerry.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
    by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North,
    longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
    16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
    decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
    forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
    Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
    and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
    with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
    by late Friday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
    (130 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    areas by early Friday.

    RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
    with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
    northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
    may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
    produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
    amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

  3. #3
    KevinS is online now
    Senior Insider Joined: Jul 2003 Boston Posts: 19,608

    Re: Hurricane Jerry - NHC Update

    The 11AM NHC update:

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 201457
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

    ...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
    ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
    ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
    ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * St. Maarten
    * St. Martin
    * St. Barthelemy
    * Saba and St. Eustatius

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
    the progress of Jerry.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
    near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
    track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
    Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
    be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and
    turn northward on Monday.

    Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to
    near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is
    forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening
    possible early next week.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
    (130 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb
    (29.24 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
    with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
    across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
    produce life-threatening flash floods.

    Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
    inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
    and Puerto Rico.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    areas later today.

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

  4. #4
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 8,044

    Re: Hurricane Jerry - NHC Update

    Hopefully sounds like Jerry will not do damage- just passing by.

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