Yellow alert- 9/19 update

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FB shows part of Le News post of this morning's Météo France update. Here is more of it:

Level of vigilance: YELLOW
Danger: Cyclone

Follow-up bulletin n ° 3 for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-BarthélemyEpisode n ° 7-IN

Issued on: Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 06:06 local time (that is 10:06 UTC)
By: Guadeloupe Meteorological Center
Date and time of the next bulletin: Thursday, September 19 at 18 hours local.

Beginning of the event: Friday 20/09/19 at 8 am local hours.
End of estimated event: Sunday 22/09/19 at the end of the day.

Current situation: Strong tropical storm JERRY
Position estimated on 19-09-2019 at 09 UTC: 16.0 N 53.2 W - Distance from Saint-Martin to the center of the phenomenon: 1075 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 1043 km
Displacement: west-northwest 290 degrees at 26 km / h- Center pressure: 995 hPa Vent max 1 min: 60 knots (110 km / h) Gusts: 75 knots (140 km / h) Tropical Storm JERRY should continue its intensification and reach the hurricane stage during this day.

Forecasts: The move of JERRY would bring it near the northern half of the West Indies Arc between Friday 20 and the following night, at a final distance of the arc which remains to be specified. The latest forecast indicates that as close to the North Islands, Jerry should be Class 1 Hurricane or a Strong Tropical Storm.

Sea:
This Thursday, a swell of north-northwest energy enough (periods of waves: 13 to 15 seconds) approaches our shores. The hollows do not exceed 1m50 to 1m80. This swell is generated by Humberto Hurricane moving far north near Bermuda. Tomorrow Friday, the sea conditions deteriorate further with the arrival of the swell of East-North-East generated by Jerry who comes to cross this swell of North-North-West. Hollow 2m in the morning could reach 2m50 to 3m in the evening and night following. Saturday, conditions remain delicate despite a net depreciation. The swell keeps a dominant north while the wind from south to southeast generates a sea of ​​wind in the opposite direction. Sunday, few changes, it is a sea of ​​wind from the East.
Rain:
Heavy rains are likely during the episode. A first storm pass is expected next night (Thursday to Friday). It will probably be followed by a nice lull in the day of Friday. More consistent and longer-lasting rains are expected on Friday night and the following night. Saturday, thunderstorms are still feared in the back of Jerry (phenomenon of spiral bands). A clear improvement is expected Sunday.
Wind:
The strength of the wind is of course conditioned by the distance to the center of the phenomenon. The preferred path currently leaves St-Martin and St-Barthelemy away from the strongest winds. However, gusts of 60 to 80 km / h in showers are likely. Moreover, from Friday the wind will be taken to take unusual directions: north-east Friday morning, then northwest in the afternoon, west at the end of the day, southwest in the evening and finally south the following night . The expected intensity is moderate for the moment, but the uncertainty remains high.

Observed data: Not applicable.

Individual behavioral measures recommended by the prefecture:
VIGILANCE YELLOW CYCLONE: BE ATTENTIVE!
 
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