BBT
Senior Insider
Depression Kirk:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 9.5 North Latitude, 37.4 West Longitude or about 1615 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 24 mph.
Even though there has been somewhat of an increase in thunderstorm activity, it appears that the circulation with Kirk is just moving too quickly to the west and thus it may be opening up into a trough of low pressure, instead of being a tropical cyclone.
As I already mentioned, Kirk is moving very quickly to the west, thus is why the system is not only struggling, but is also likely steady-state or still weakening. Kirk is expected to slow down in forward speed by Tuesday and it might have about 24 hours where it's able to strengthen before increasing amounts of wind shear begin to impact the storm. Very strong wind shear is likely to impact Kirk in the eastern Caribbean leading to the system to potentially dissipate at the end of this week.
With that said, I do think that there is the possibility that Kirk will impact some part of the Lesser Antilles as a 40-50 mph tropical storm on Thursday night and Friday. Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands are at highest risk for tropical storm conditions Thursday night and Friday.
Beyond this, I think that we will need to keep a close eye on the track of Kirk when it pushes into the Caribbean next weekend. A few members of both the European ensemble and GFS ensemble model guidance forecast Kirk may either head for the Bahamas or the western Caribbean during next week. At this point, I think that we're going to have to see what sort of shape Kirk is in at the end of this week and this weekend before we start looking seriously at what it might do next week. If Kirk's circulation completely dissipates in the eastern Caribbean, then redevelopment next week seems unlikely. On the other hand, if Kirk is able to maintain a circulation in the face of forecasted very strong wind shear in the Caribbean and make it to either the Bahamas or the western Caribbean, then we are going to have to very closely watch for redevelopment next week.
Bottom line is that I am keeping a very close eye on Kirk and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.
Model Track Forecast For Kirk:
Satellite Imagery Of Kirk:
Invest 98-L Located Halfway Between Bermuda & The Bahamas: There has been an increase in thunderstorm activity and increased organization associated with Invest 98-L, which is an area of low pressure located about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that a majority of the thunderstorm activity is occurring on the northern and western side of the low pressure center and recent imagery indicates that the low pressure center may be trying to tuck itself inside of some this convection. The environmental conditions are favorable for additional development with 10 knots or less of wind shear occurring over Invest 98-L.
It appears that the environmental conditions will remain favorable for development right through Tuesday before wind shear values begin to increase over Invest 98-L. With that said, the track intensity guidance forecast very little intensification over the next 48 hours and at most they forecast this system to become a low end tropical storm. The reason for this is found in water vapor satellite imagery which shows dry air still trying to impinge on the thunderstorm cluster that is building around Invest 98-L.
The most certain part with the forecast of Invest 98-L continues to be that it will be very close to, if not tracking right over the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday. The much less certain part of the forecast is whether Invest 98-L will develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next couple of days or so. If we continue to see the increase in thunderstorm activity that we're seeing right now, then I think we will most definitely see this system become a tropical depression and maybe even a low end tropical storm by the time it reaches the outer banks of North Carolina coast on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, if we see thunderstorm activity collapse due to dry air ingestion, then very little development would likely occur.
Either way, Invest 98-L will bring some gusty winds and a few bands of rainfall & embedded thunderstorms across the outer banks of North Carolina starting on Tuesdayand continuing through Wednesday. I am monitoring Invest 98-L very closely and will have additional updates for you as conditions warrant.
Invest 98-L Information:
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday Morning or sooner if conditions
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 9.5 North Latitude, 37.4 West Longitude or about 1615 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 24 mph.
Even though there has been somewhat of an increase in thunderstorm activity, it appears that the circulation with Kirk is just moving too quickly to the west and thus it may be opening up into a trough of low pressure, instead of being a tropical cyclone.
As I already mentioned, Kirk is moving very quickly to the west, thus is why the system is not only struggling, but is also likely steady-state or still weakening. Kirk is expected to slow down in forward speed by Tuesday and it might have about 24 hours where it's able to strengthen before increasing amounts of wind shear begin to impact the storm. Very strong wind shear is likely to impact Kirk in the eastern Caribbean leading to the system to potentially dissipate at the end of this week.
With that said, I do think that there is the possibility that Kirk will impact some part of the Lesser Antilles as a 40-50 mph tropical storm on Thursday night and Friday. Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands are at highest risk for tropical storm conditions Thursday night and Friday.
Beyond this, I think that we will need to keep a close eye on the track of Kirk when it pushes into the Caribbean next weekend. A few members of both the European ensemble and GFS ensemble model guidance forecast Kirk may either head for the Bahamas or the western Caribbean during next week. At this point, I think that we're going to have to see what sort of shape Kirk is in at the end of this week and this weekend before we start looking seriously at what it might do next week. If Kirk's circulation completely dissipates in the eastern Caribbean, then redevelopment next week seems unlikely. On the other hand, if Kirk is able to maintain a circulation in the face of forecasted very strong wind shear in the Caribbean and make it to either the Bahamas or the western Caribbean, then we are going to have to very closely watch for redevelopment next week.
Bottom line is that I am keeping a very close eye on Kirk and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.
Model Track Forecast For Kirk:
Satellite Imagery Of Kirk:
Invest 98-L Located Halfway Between Bermuda & The Bahamas: There has been an increase in thunderstorm activity and increased organization associated with Invest 98-L, which is an area of low pressure located about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that a majority of the thunderstorm activity is occurring on the northern and western side of the low pressure center and recent imagery indicates that the low pressure center may be trying to tuck itself inside of some this convection. The environmental conditions are favorable for additional development with 10 knots or less of wind shear occurring over Invest 98-L.
It appears that the environmental conditions will remain favorable for development right through Tuesday before wind shear values begin to increase over Invest 98-L. With that said, the track intensity guidance forecast very little intensification over the next 48 hours and at most they forecast this system to become a low end tropical storm. The reason for this is found in water vapor satellite imagery which shows dry air still trying to impinge on the thunderstorm cluster that is building around Invest 98-L.
The most certain part with the forecast of Invest 98-L continues to be that it will be very close to, if not tracking right over the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday. The much less certain part of the forecast is whether Invest 98-L will develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next couple of days or so. If we continue to see the increase in thunderstorm activity that we're seeing right now, then I think we will most definitely see this system become a tropical depression and maybe even a low end tropical storm by the time it reaches the outer banks of North Carolina coast on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, if we see thunderstorm activity collapse due to dry air ingestion, then very little development would likely occur.
Either way, Invest 98-L will bring some gusty winds and a few bands of rainfall & embedded thunderstorms across the outer banks of North Carolina starting on Tuesdayand continuing through Wednesday. I am monitoring Invest 98-L very closely and will have additional updates for you as conditions warrant.
Invest 98-L Information:
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday Morning or sooner if conditions
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