BBT
Senior Insider
The Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Is Expected To Be Quiet For At Least The Next Week To 10 Days; Period From Early-Mid August To Mid October Could Be Fairly Active In Terms Of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Threats For The Far Northeastern Caribbean, The Bahamas & Along The US East Coast From Eastern Florida To Southern New England
The Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Is Expected To Be Quiet For At Least The Next Week To 10 Days: It appears that things will be quiet across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 7 to 10 days. In fact, we probably will not see another named storm this month and may have to wait until August before we see the next named storm (Debby).
None of the longer range model guidance, including the GFS model, the GFS ensemble model and the European ensemble model guidance forecasts any sort of tropical development through July 28th. I agree with this as there is large scale sinking air occurring across much of the Atlantic Basin and this will put a cap on any sort of tropical development from happening.
Period From Early-Mid August To Mid October Could Be Fairly Active In Terms Of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Threats For The Far Northeastern Caribbean, The Bahamas & Along The US East Coast From Eastern Florida Northward To Southern New England: I think the next time frame for increased tropical development chances across the Atlantic Basin will arrive by early August and intensify as we head into mid August. A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during the first half of August leading to increased rainfall and storminess across the tropical Atlantic. This favorable background state across the Atlantic Basin will lead to a increased chance for tropical development as we get into early and mid August.
The very long range CFS model guidance continues to be very consistent in both showing tropical activity ramping up during August and also trending towards lower barometric pressures across the Atlantic Basin during the month of August. In fact, the CFS model continues to forecast a pretty active period for tropical storm/hurricane landfall threats from mid-August to mid-October in a couple of concentrated areas.
The first area that the CFS model is indicating that may be at risk from a tropical storm/hurricane threat is the region from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and along the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward all the way to southern New England could be active with at least 3 tropical storm or hurricane threats between August 15 and October 15.
Second is that the central and eastern Caribbean may be quiet with no significant threats. This remains to be seen, but this idea seems plausible given the overall weather pattern.
Third is that the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico could become active tropically after September 15th.
Here Are My Thoughts: The overall trend towards things really ramping up in terms of tropical storm/hurricane formation from mid August to mid October is concerning. Analysis of the ocean water temperatures over the central and eastern Atlantic Basin between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa (referred to as the Main Development Region) continue to warm up as the trade winds across the region are lighter than they were even a couple of weeks ago or so. There are strong signals in the model guidance that suggests the trade winds will remain light enough to allow for continuing warming of the ocean water temperatures to above average readings during August and September across the central and eastern Atlantic.
In addition to this, rainfall across the Sahel of Africa has been above average this year and this has led to the tropical waves pushing across the African continent being stronger than average this year. These tropical waves help to slow down the easterly trade winds and given that the tropical waves have been displaced a little further north this year, they are helping to warm up much of the Atlantic Main Development Region.
So, to me, it is concerning that the entire state of the Atlantic Basin may be shifting from one that was unfavorable for development (cool ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region) to one that is currently becoming increasingly more favorable for development (near average and trending towards above average ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region).
Now, to address the potential areas that could be at risk from any tropical storms or hurricanes. I think that there are two areas of concern:
The first is the area from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and up the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward to southern New England. Systems this year have already been taking a path from the Bahamas northward to just offshore of the US East Coast (Chris was a great example of this). I suspect that we will see this continue with any tropical storms or hurricanes being guided from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and then up the US East Coast. In fact, this was mentioned as a viable possibility in our 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast issued back in early April. Many times the atmosphere can send a signal to how things are going to progress over the next few weeks and I think we are seeing this signal now with both Chris and the path of the remnants of Beryl.
The second area of concern is the area from the northwestern Caribbean to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. I think this area could be a concern as we get a later in the season (after September 15) and I could see a scenario of another tropical system taking a path much like Alberto did back in late May – except this time, the tropical system could be much stronger than what we had with Alberto.
The Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Is Expected To Be Quiet For At Least The Next Week To 10 Days: It appears that things will be quiet across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 7 to 10 days. In fact, we probably will not see another named storm this month and may have to wait until August before we see the next named storm (Debby).
None of the longer range model guidance, including the GFS model, the GFS ensemble model and the European ensemble model guidance forecasts any sort of tropical development through July 28th. I agree with this as there is large scale sinking air occurring across much of the Atlantic Basin and this will put a cap on any sort of tropical development from happening.
Period From Early-Mid August To Mid October Could Be Fairly Active In Terms Of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Threats For The Far Northeastern Caribbean, The Bahamas & Along The US East Coast From Eastern Florida Northward To Southern New England: I think the next time frame for increased tropical development chances across the Atlantic Basin will arrive by early August and intensify as we head into mid August. A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during the first half of August leading to increased rainfall and storminess across the tropical Atlantic. This favorable background state across the Atlantic Basin will lead to a increased chance for tropical development as we get into early and mid August.
The very long range CFS model guidance continues to be very consistent in both showing tropical activity ramping up during August and also trending towards lower barometric pressures across the Atlantic Basin during the month of August. In fact, the CFS model continues to forecast a pretty active period for tropical storm/hurricane landfall threats from mid-August to mid-October in a couple of concentrated areas.
The first area that the CFS model is indicating that may be at risk from a tropical storm/hurricane threat is the region from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and along the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward all the way to southern New England could be active with at least 3 tropical storm or hurricane threats between August 15 and October 15.
Second is that the central and eastern Caribbean may be quiet with no significant threats. This remains to be seen, but this idea seems plausible given the overall weather pattern.
Third is that the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico could become active tropically after September 15th.
Here Are My Thoughts: The overall trend towards things really ramping up in terms of tropical storm/hurricane formation from mid August to mid October is concerning. Analysis of the ocean water temperatures over the central and eastern Atlantic Basin between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa (referred to as the Main Development Region) continue to warm up as the trade winds across the region are lighter than they were even a couple of weeks ago or so. There are strong signals in the model guidance that suggests the trade winds will remain light enough to allow for continuing warming of the ocean water temperatures to above average readings during August and September across the central and eastern Atlantic.
In addition to this, rainfall across the Sahel of Africa has been above average this year and this has led to the tropical waves pushing across the African continent being stronger than average this year. These tropical waves help to slow down the easterly trade winds and given that the tropical waves have been displaced a little further north this year, they are helping to warm up much of the Atlantic Main Development Region.
So, to me, it is concerning that the entire state of the Atlantic Basin may be shifting from one that was unfavorable for development (cool ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region) to one that is currently becoming increasingly more favorable for development (near average and trending towards above average ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region).
Now, to address the potential areas that could be at risk from any tropical storms or hurricanes. I think that there are two areas of concern:
The first is the area from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and up the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward to southern New England. Systems this year have already been taking a path from the Bahamas northward to just offshore of the US East Coast (Chris was a great example of this). I suspect that we will see this continue with any tropical storms or hurricanes being guided from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and then up the US East Coast. In fact, this was mentioned as a viable possibility in our 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast issued back in early April. Many times the atmosphere can send a signal to how things are going to progress over the next few weeks and I think we are seeing this signal now with both Chris and the path of the remnants of Beryl.
The second area of concern is the area from the northwestern Caribbean to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. I think this area could be a concern as we get a later in the season (after September 15) and I could see a scenario of another tropical system taking a path much like Alberto did back in late May – except this time, the tropical system could be much stronger than what we had with Alberto.