weather in st. barths
- Thread starter didier
- Start date
BBT
Senior Insider
No Tropical Development Is Expected Through At Least This Weekend Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: Activity is expected to be generally quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through this weekend and possibly through a good part of next week with no tropical development anticipated.
One feature that is evident on satellite imagery this morning is an area of heavier shower and thunderstorm activity with gusty winds over parts of the Lesser Antilles. This activity is being caused by a tropical wave that is located over the eastern Caribbean. It is expected that this tropical wave will push westward this weekend. This means that the shower and thunderstorm activity will end by later today across the Lesser Antilles with an increase in showers and thunderstorms first over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon into tonight and then across Hispaniola tonight into Saturday. The environmental conditions with this tropical wave are unfavorable for development and thus no tropical development is expected from this tropical wave.
Another thing that we will be keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks or so are the frontal boundaries that will be pushing southward along the US East Coast every 4 to 5 days or so. The reason why we'll be keeping an eye on any southward moving fronts is for the possibility of pieces of energy being left behind along the US Southeast Coast or in the northern Bahamas that could go on to try to develop into a tropical system. Right now, none of the model guidance forecasts tropical development over the next 7 days or so and more than likely we wont see development, but it is something that I'm going to keep an eye on.
Tropical Development Is Possible During The First Week Of July In The Area From Near The US Southeast Coast Through The Bahamas Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico: As I have been mentioning in previous discussions, it appears that the next time period that we are going to have to watch for potential tropical development is during the first week of July as the upcoming weather pattern over the United States really supports tropical development from near the US Southeast Coast through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
It is looking likely that we will see a large upper level high pressure system build over the eastern United States as head towards late next week into the first week of July. This will lead to a hot first week of July across much of the central and eastern United States with high temperatures well into the 90s and near 100 Degrees as far north as New England.
This type of weather pattern (large high pressure over the eastern and northeastern United States) looks like trouble to me in terms of potential tropical development as we are going to have to watch for falling barometric pressures in the area from near the US Southeast Coast through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Right now, none of the model guidance (GFS, Canadian or European models) forecasts outright tropical development, but they do certainly hint at it with their forecast of moisture and energy piling up along the Southeastern coast of the United States as we get into July 1 and 2.
Looking at the top 10 analog years for late next week into early July revels that 5 of the top 10 analog years recorded a tropical storm or hurricane during late June and early July either in the northwestern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or near the US Southeast Coast.
Even though the operational model guidance shows no outright tropical development, the ensemble guidance are “interesting” in that many individual members of both the GFS ensemble and European ensemble models are showing low pressure to initially develop near the northern Bahamas late next week and then travel westward into the northeastern and northern Gulf of Mexico by around July 2 and July 3. In addition, the European ensemble guidance is forecasting a 25 percent chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the first couple of days of July.
At this point, the possibility of tropical development during the first week of July is something that not only needs to be watched closely, but it is also something that is definitely a concern.
One feature that is evident on satellite imagery this morning is an area of heavier shower and thunderstorm activity with gusty winds over parts of the Lesser Antilles. This activity is being caused by a tropical wave that is located over the eastern Caribbean. It is expected that this tropical wave will push westward this weekend. This means that the shower and thunderstorm activity will end by later today across the Lesser Antilles with an increase in showers and thunderstorms first over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon into tonight and then across Hispaniola tonight into Saturday. The environmental conditions with this tropical wave are unfavorable for development and thus no tropical development is expected from this tropical wave.
Another thing that we will be keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks or so are the frontal boundaries that will be pushing southward along the US East Coast every 4 to 5 days or so. The reason why we'll be keeping an eye on any southward moving fronts is for the possibility of pieces of energy being left behind along the US Southeast Coast or in the northern Bahamas that could go on to try to develop into a tropical system. Right now, none of the model guidance forecasts tropical development over the next 7 days or so and more than likely we wont see development, but it is something that I'm going to keep an eye on.
Tropical Development Is Possible During The First Week Of July In The Area From Near The US Southeast Coast Through The Bahamas Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico: As I have been mentioning in previous discussions, it appears that the next time period that we are going to have to watch for potential tropical development is during the first week of July as the upcoming weather pattern over the United States really supports tropical development from near the US Southeast Coast through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
It is looking likely that we will see a large upper level high pressure system build over the eastern United States as head towards late next week into the first week of July. This will lead to a hot first week of July across much of the central and eastern United States with high temperatures well into the 90s and near 100 Degrees as far north as New England.
This type of weather pattern (large high pressure over the eastern and northeastern United States) looks like trouble to me in terms of potential tropical development as we are going to have to watch for falling barometric pressures in the area from near the US Southeast Coast through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Right now, none of the model guidance (GFS, Canadian or European models) forecasts outright tropical development, but they do certainly hint at it with their forecast of moisture and energy piling up along the Southeastern coast of the United States as we get into July 1 and 2.
Looking at the top 10 analog years for late next week into early July revels that 5 of the top 10 analog years recorded a tropical storm or hurricane during late June and early July either in the northwestern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or near the US Southeast Coast.
Even though the operational model guidance shows no outright tropical development, the ensemble guidance are “interesting” in that many individual members of both the GFS ensemble and European ensemble models are showing low pressure to initially develop near the northern Bahamas late next week and then travel westward into the northeastern and northern Gulf of Mexico by around July 2 and July 3. In addition, the European ensemble guidance is forecasting a 25 percent chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the first couple of days of July.
At this point, the possibility of tropical development during the first week of July is something that not only needs to be watched closely, but it is also something that is definitely a concern.
stbartshopper
Senior Insider
It is fun to watch the storms roll in over the island- just not named ones!
. . . sharing the same best wishes for Benjamin!
