Results 1 to 28 of 28

Thread: The continuation of Eve's embedded report

  1. #1
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,207

    The continuation of Eve's embedded report

    Quote Originally Posted by phil62 View Post
    She does not, but she and her whole family had Covid this past March so we're not worried.

    Phil
    . . . curious as to whether there's any data about how long Covid-related antibodies survive vs. vaccine antibodies. Anyone know?

  2. #2
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 923

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by cec1 View Post
    . . . curious as to whether there's any data about how long Covid-related antibodies survive vs. vaccine antibodies. Anyone know?
    When considering this in the context of your prior question, keep in mind that asymptomatic spread from someone with antibodies can still be a concern.

    Development of antibodies after vaccination has been more predictable than after infection.

    Nearly 100% seroconversion following vaccination has been shown in studies such as this and this (various conditions lower this likelihood, some markedly).

    A recent study that reported that antibodies did not develop in 36% of COVID cases of differing severities and this study that reported seroconversion in nearly all cases of mild and moderate disease indicate the extremes of what has been observed following infection.

    Because natural infection produces antibodies to not just the S protein used for vaccines and because there are additional components of the immune system, the question of vaccine vs. natural immunity does not end here.

    Advocates of vaccination for those with prior infection cite this recent study showing that those who have had COVID and are not vaccinated are more than twice as likely than those who are fully vaccinated to be reinfected. Conversely this study reports stronger and more durable protection from natural immunity than vaccination (although it also provided support for single dose mRNA vaccination to augment natural immunity).

  3. #3
    debd is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2005 CT Posts: 1,181

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
    When considering this in the context of your prior question, keep in mind that asymptomatic spread from someone with antibodies can still be a concern.

    Development of antibodies after vaccination has been more predictable than after infection.

    Nearly100% seroconversion following vaccination has been shown in studies such as this and this (some underlying conditions can obviously reduce the likelihood of seroconversion).

    A recent study that reported that antibodies did not develop in 36% of COVID cases of differing severities and this study that reported seroconversion in nearly all cases of mild and moderate disease indicate the extremes of what has been observed following infection.

    Because natural infection produces antibodies to not just the S protein used for vaccines and because there are additional components of the immune system, the question of vaccine vs. natural immunity does not end here.

    Advocates of vaccination for those with prior infection cite this recent study showing that those who have had COVID and are not vaccinated are more than twice as likely than those who are fully vaccinated to be reinfected. Conversely this study reports stronger and more durable protection from natural immunity than vaccination (although it also provided support for single dose mRNA vaccination to augment natural immunity).
    Thanks, Izzy. Very helpful data.

  4. #4
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,207

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
    When considering this in the context of your prior question, keep in mind that asymptomatic spread from someone with antibodies can still be a concern.

    Development of antibodies after vaccination has been more predictable than after infection.

    Nearly 100% seroconversion following vaccination has been shown in studies such as this and this (various conditions lower this likelihood, some markedly).

    A recent study that reported that antibodies did not develop in 36% of COVID cases of differing severities and this study that reported seroconversion in nearly all cases of mild and moderate disease indicate the extremes of what has been observed following infection.

    Because natural infection produces antibodies to not just the S protein used for vaccines and because there are additional components of the immune system, the question of vaccine vs. natural immunity does not end here.

    Advocates of vaccination for those with prior infection cite this recent study showing that those who have had COVID and are not vaccinated are more than twice as likely than those who are fully vaccinated to be reinfected. Conversely this study reports stronger and more durable protection from natural immunity than vaccination (although it also provided support for single dose mRNA vaccination to augment natural immunity).
    Thank you, Izzy!

  5. #5
    andynap is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2002 Philadelphia Posts: 45,184

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by phil62 View Post
    She does not, but she and her whole family had Covid this past March so we're not worried.

    Phil
    Read Izzy above. She can become reinfected easier than having the vaccination.


    Andy

  6. #6
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,599

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by andynap View Post
    Read Izzy above. She can become reinfected easier than having the vaccination.

    Yes, Izzy knows best. Even some very public figures who were infected went on to receive the vaccine.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  7. #7
    Eve is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jun 2008 Boston Posts: 8,475

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Maybe you should all stop watching American news 24/7.
    I’m so glad I am here

  8. #8
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,599

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Eve View Post
    Maybe you should all stop watching American news 24/7.
    I’m so glad I am here
    I would love to be there too! Enjoy!

    BTW, Izzy cites scientific studies, not the MSM.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  9. #9
    marybeth is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: May 2004 Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 3,622

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Unfortunately I know more than I need to about COVID due to my work responsibilities, not the news.

  10. #10
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Eve View Post
    Maybe you should all stop watching American news 24/7.
    not all
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  11. #11
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 75

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by andynap View Post
    Read Izzy above. She can become reinfected easier than having the vaccination.
    These papers say the opposite Andy. The papers say that among people who have all been infected, those who are also vaccinated are half as likely to get re-infected. It is an argument to get vaccinated even if you already had the sickness. Separately, they also say that those who are vaccinated but have never been infected are 5-27 times more likely to get a breakthrough case compared to the likelihood of an unvaccinated person who had been infected are of getting re-infected. The range of a previously infected but unvaccinated person being 5 to 27 times safer than a vaccinated-only person depends on a whole pile of things including how long it was from the vaccination because their effectiveness seems to decay over time, but this paper and other similar ones seem to leave no doubt that having previously caught covid is a much stronger defense than the vaccine by itself.

    Studies like these are what are putting pressure on governments to accept a previous infection as a valid equivalency for the vaccine passports, since they are far safer to the general public than a mere vaccinated person.

  12. #12
    andynap is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2002 Philadelphia Posts: 45,184

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Happycamper View Post
    These papers say the opposite Andy. The papers say that among people who have all been infected, those who are also vaccinated are half as likely to get re-infected. It is an argument to get vaccinated even if you already had the sickness. Separately, they also say that those who are vaccinated but have never been infected are 5-27 times more likely to get a breakthrough case compared to the likelihood of an unvaccinated person who had been infected are of getting re-infected. The range of a previously infected but unvaccinated person being 5 to 27 times safer than a vaccinated-only person depends on a whole pile of things including how long it was from the vaccination because their effectiveness seems to decay over time, but this paper and other similar ones seem to leave no doubt that having previously caught covid is a much stronger defense than the vaccine by itself.

    Studies like these are what are putting pressure on governments to accept a previous infection as a valid equivalency for the vaccine passports, since they are far safer to the general public than a mere vaccinated person.
    Sorry but I disagree. The CDC study in Izzy’s post shows a higher degree of protection for vaccination than one who was infected. The other article has not been peer reviewed and is not considered a scientific study.


    Andy

  13. #13
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    This thread is no longer an SBH specific thread. More appropriate for EE.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  14. #14
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,599

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by cassidain View Post
    This thread is no longer an SBH specific thread. More appropriate for EE.
    Do not agree. Based on all this I would demand that maids wear masks when cleaning the villa. Others may want to read all this and make their own decisions, but it is germane to the island.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  15. #15
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    We’ll agree to disagree. Nothing unusual there.
    i assume only vaxxed femmes de chambre for you ?
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  16. #16
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,599

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by cassidain View Post
    We’ll agree to disagree. Nothing unusual there.
    i assume only vaxxed femmes de chambre for you ?
    It isn’t about me, it is about full disclosure on a visitor’s options.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  17. #17
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by JEK View Post
    Based on all this I would demand that maids wear masks when cleaning the villa.
    Based on all that I have read and experienced, I would demand that maids not wear masks when cleaning my villa. De préférence, not vaxxed either. YMMV
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  18. #18
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,207

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Interesting bit of info from CNN — lPuerto Rico has become the most vaccinated place in America, with about 73% of its 3.3 million residents fully vaccinated against Covid-19.”

  19. #19
    TR561 is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Dec 2020 Posts: 209

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Great news.

  20. #20
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 75

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by andynap View Post
    Sorry but I disagree. The CDC study in Izzy’s post shows a higher degree of protection for vaccination than one who was infected. The other article has not been peer reviewed and is not considered a scientific study.
    Quote Originally Posted by andynap View Post
    Sorry but I disagree. The CDC study in Izzy’s post shows a higher degree of protection for vaccination than one who was infected. The other article has not been peer reviewed and is not considered a scientific study.

    Hi Andy,
    The title of the CDC paper is "Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination," where 'reinfection' of course means someone getting sick with Covid a second time, refers only to how people who have been previously infected and shows how they are better protected if they also get a vaccine. It does not discuss your claim that the vaccine by itself is more protective than a previous infection. The other paper, which I had also read at your suggestion, reports the opposite of your claim. I agree it is being held up through peer review (some feel the delay is for political reasons, others for scientific.) I'm happy to hold off on anointing it as gospel until the negative complaints have been made public (it is frustrating that this paper of significant importance has lingered in review for almost 2 months. Either spike it with a clear flaw, or 'follow the science' as they say.) In the mean time, can you point me to the research you found that shows vaccinated people are better protected from a first infection than Covid survivors are from a reinfection? I looked and couldn't find any.

  21. #21
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 923

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Happycamper View Post
    Hi Andy.. this paper of significant importance has lingered in review for almost 2 months. Either spike it with a clear flaw, or 'follow the science' as they say.) In the mean time, can you point me to the research you found that shows vaccinated people are better protected from a first infection than Covid survivors are from a reinfection? I looked and couldn't find any.
    The Pfizer mRNA vaccine affording greater protection than natural immunity was among the many findings in a large UK study, that had a primary goal of assessing Delta’s impact on vaccine effectiveness. The Oxford/AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine, which has been less effective than the mRNA vaccines, provided similar protection to natural immunity.

    This UK study has some advantages over the preprint study from Israel that you are referencing but still has limitations that are noted in the article.

    The study from Israel is being viewed as far from definitive. The main limitations that the peer reviewers have likely asked the authors to more fully address relate to properties of “test-seeking” behavior, the number of outcomes (infections, hospitalization, etc.) and the large odd ratios on which the conclusions are based. How long it takes the authors to reply to reviewers’ questions and concerns is often a rate-limiting step in article publication. The UK paper was, btw, posted as preprint in late August and published in mid-October.

    “Real world” observational studies of natural immunity such as these present many more challenges and provide conclusions with lower confidence than Phase 3 vaccine efficacy studies, which can not address natural immunity. One looks for a preponderance of evidence and the strengths and weaknesses of each study.

    Laboratory studies looking at infection vs. vaccine neutralizing antibody response (multiple have favored vaccines) are much more scientifically robust but only assess a limited part of the immune response and do not necessarily translate into clinical results.

    The issue of vaccine vs. natural immunity does not have a clear scientific consensus. There are some expectations that the CDC will have more information and more to say in the next month. The topic of hybrid immunity may start filling more of those 24/7 slots that Eve mentioned.

    In the meantime, perhaps it is best to leave debate and opinion about this topic to other forums.

    BTW, nice "spike" (protein) pun, intentional or otherwise!

  22. #22
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,207

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Thanks, Izzy, for your informative report.

  23. #23
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Our ERocker Morgane is prepping your home away from home with the warmest of smiles...
    248412483_3278373525746776_4193121874709744044_n.jpg
    Morgane is welcome to prep my ER suite without a mask anytime she wants. YMMV
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  24. #24
    NancySC is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Sep 2017 Posts: 1,348

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by cec1 View Post
    Interesting bit of info from CNN — lPuerto Rico has become the most vaccinated place in America, with about 73% of its 3.3 million residents fully vaccinated against Covid-19.”
    Our local news comes out of Savannah, just a half hour from us here in our part of SC. The reader on the ABC affiliate last nite was ecstatic as she said that GA has hit the 50 % vaccinated level, a long time coming over there, while our state has hit 54%. Neither governor has helped attain the current levels. Good for Puerto Rico !

  25. #25
    Dennis is online now
    Senior Insider Joined: Apr 2004 Austin, TX Posts: 10,001

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by cassidain View Post
    Our ERocker Morgane is prepping your home away from home with the warmest of smiles...
    248412483_3278373525746776_4193121874709744044_n.jpg
    Morgane is welcome to prep my ER suite without a mask anytime she wants. YMMV
    Something we agree upon.

  26. #26
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 75

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Thank you Izzy for the pointer to the excellent paper. Good reading for a rainy afternoon.

    I agree that the words in the report, "The effectiveness of two [vaccine] doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection" agrees with yours and Andy's claim, but the papers actual reported data shows that the Pfizer vaccines starts off only slightly more effective (~85%) than natural immunity (~80%), and then tapers off such that within a month or two after vaccination is it less effective than natural immunity. The Astra Zenaca vaccine starts off worse (70%) than natural immunity and drops from there. Particularly noteworthy is that their data on my age group (35-64) show a less than 50% vaccine effectiveness for Astra Zenaca 3 months after vaccination. It seems the authors get away with their written claim of vaccines being "at least as great as" natural immunity only by averaging the two vaccines and squinting.


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...548-7/tables/2 (the right hand 3 columns with the 2nd and 3rd rows being the infections of interest.)
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...48-7/figures/2 (the graph of vaccine effectiveness decaying over time.)


    This mismatch of words and data seems not unusual for scientific research papers. They sometimes have to contort their written results into acceptable language to get published, but they quietly let you see the underlying data, in case you want to know what they really found. I bumped into this the hard way last spring by giving feedback on a paper of the form "hey you missed calling out this interesting and surprising result in your data!" The net result was that their paper then became unpublishable because no one wanted to print the findings that they actually had. I hadn't realized that the data they found was kind of a third rail for the grey-beards in their space and so they had been quietly hoping to sneak it in for others to uncover after publication, but once I flagged it, no one could un-see it. Oops.


    Anyway, in the words of the cable show MythBusters, I would say that the claim that one should not let your room be cleaned by a naturally inoculated maid is 'busted.'


    I am still a big fan of the vaccines and am glad I've gotten mine. The report make the case that the strongest preventative for catching covid is to have previously gotten it and then also have the vaccination, so congratulations to them. 90% effective and long lasting.


    As a side note, I will try to avoid the habit we seem to have on this forum of calling for a end of discussion right after we ourselves have made all of our points. (Izzy, that's you I'm teasing...)

  27. #27
    Izzy is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Mar 2016 Posts: 923

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    Quote Originally Posted by Happycamper View Post
    ... agrees with yours and Andy's claim... As a side note, I will try to avoid the habit we seem to have on this forum of calling for a end of discussion right after we ourselves have made all of our points. (Izzy, that's you I'm teasing...)
    I do not believe that I have made any personal claims or offered my opinion regarding the effectiveness of vaccination vs. natural immunity. The strongest statement that I believe I have made is that there is no clear scientific consensus on this issue. I have no "points" that I wish to make regarding the topic on this forum. I have provided references that draw opposing conclusions.

    For the references that I have provided in response to questions from Dennis and you, I have tried to be faithful to the authors statements and have stayed away from reanalyzing limited data, which can lead to faulty as well as valid conclusions. Straying into areas of opinion and debate is what I suggested woukd best be reserved for other nontravel forums.

  28. #28
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,944

    Re: A few observations from embedded reporter

    This whole thing should be in a « non-travel forum »
    Mods disagree.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •