Canx SB holidays for Feb 2022 :)

Hello,

Sadly we have cancelled again our holidays for Feb 2022 . Too much uncertainty and for us coming from the UK is not really the ideal. Lots of requirements, tests, curfew etc… I am not sure that the happy and relaxed atmosphere that we were used in SB is there yet.

So hope that the 2023 will be fine for us to be back. We miss the island very much, such a precious place that we took for granted for the last 15 years.

So aurevoir with a lovely picture of our last stay there in 2020.

February of 2022 is a long way away.

I just read something from our state health dept. (Vermont) that is somewhat disconcerting. For the week of Aug. 14th we had 500 new cases of Covid in unvaccinated people and 288 new cases in vaccinated people. For the week of August 21 we had 507 cases in the unvaccinated and 292 cases in vaccinates. My 16 year old son just had his yearly physical so I asked the Dr. about this. She said a lot of the vaccinated people are completely asymptomatic but still test positive. A positive antigen test in St. Barts when trying to come back to the states could land you in quarantine even if you feel fine. Something to consider.

REK said:

She said a lot of the vaccinated people are completely asymptomatic but still test positive.

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interesting to ponder the implications of that. especially since studies have found more than half of transmissions were from asymptomatic people.

I'm sorry you cancelled. We too are scheduled for February and I am growing increasingly concerned about our trip as the number of infected people continues to soar.

kent1994 said:

as the number of infected people continues to soar.

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actually in the last week the acceleration of new cases has decreased markedly.

in the earlier period of this spike, infections were increasing at almost 50% per week.

in the last week they increased by approx 4%.

we'll have to wait and see, but from inflection to peak of this variant, my guess has been two or so months.

one hopes we're on the verge of a precipitous decline in cases.

à suivre . . .

REK said:

I just read something from our state health dept. (Vermont) that is somewhat disconcerting. For the week of Aug. 14th we had 500 new cases of Covid in unvaccinated people and 288 new cases in vaccinated people. For the week of August 21 we had 507 cases in the unvaccinated and 292 cases in vaccinates. My 16 year old son just had his yearly physical so I asked the Dr. about this. She said a lot of the vaccinated people are completely asymptomatic but still test positive. A positive antigen test in St. Barts when trying to come back to the states could land you in quarantine even if you feel fine. Something to consider.

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Interesting ratio. I read that 76% of Vermont residents have received at least one dose so that skews the numbers of course since there are so many more vaccinated people in Vermont. I think the best States to look at are the ones where the vaccination rate is right around 50/50 to see the effectiveness of the vaccine and maybe to get a little better idea of the likelihood of a person testing positive if vaccinated. My understanding was that the ratio of positive tests nationally was much different than what you stated for Vermont but I haven't checked lately. Regardless, it seems the effectiveness of the vaccines are waning over time and in particular for the Delta variant which is almost all cases now (I think:thinking1 . My thinking on the bolded is to get tested if you have any symptoms at all whether vaccinated or not and of course to travel to St Barth you will need to be tested so hopefully that initial test will reveal it if you are indeed positive before you leave so you don't get the bad news while on vacation...unless of course you become infected while on vacation. We just need to decide on our own personal risk vs reward. If the numbers keep going up I may switch from the "going is worth the risk" to the "going is not worth the risk" group, but right now I still feel that if vaccinated and follow all of the other common sense rules that for me personally it's worth going. But, I fully respect that we are all in different places on that risk/reward line and that the line is moving constantly.

Cases & hospitalizations are already dropping significantly in the south. To cancel a February trip, in August is silly. I actually think St Barths will be roaring again by November/December.

cassidain said:

actually in the last week the acceleration of new cases has decreased markedly.

in the earlier period of this spike, infections were increasing at almost 50% per week.

in the last week they increased by approx 4%.

we'll have to wait and see, but from inflection to peak of this variant, my guess has been two or so months.

one hopes we're on the verge of a precipitous decline in cases.

à suivre . . .

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Thanks for posting that. I didn't realize it had come down so much. That is good news and hopefully we see that precipitous decline soon ray1:.

I hope you are correct. I haven't cancelled but I am concerned.

REK said:

I just read something from our state health dept. (Vermont) that is somewhat disconcertin... A positive antigen test in St. Barts when trying to come back to the states could land you in quarantine even if you feel fine. Something to consider.

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Using more than the raw numbers (particularly when limited to numerators) may help put perspective on decisions regarding travel and the expressed concern related to a pre-return antigen test. Some very "quick and dirty" ballpark estimates:

The provided numbers would convert into an ~76% real world vaccine effectiveness during those weeks in Vermont, which has recorded complete vaccination status for ~70% of its total (eligible + ineligible) population.

During those 2 weeks, a vaccinated Vermonter’s risk of being diagnosed with COVID was ~0.07% per week. An unvaccinated Vermonter’s risk was ~0.3% per week.

I offer this only to help with your thought process. Beyond that, perhaps it is best to leave discussion of Vermont, US, and other case counts and predictions regarding future pandemic dynamics to other forums...

Because I believe that it's valuable for Forum participants to share thoughts and experiences, as folks here are doing . . . I'll lob in a personal observation that I'm feeling very comfortable on SBH right now -- more so than I felt about being in Florida when I left a couple of weeks ago. The percentage of vaccinated SBH residents seems to be quite high . . . and mask-wearing among residents impresses me as being appropriate to circumstances and the personal comfort level of relationships among people interacting with one another.

I'm not an advertisement for the local "chamber of commerce" . . . and while I am an owner of a rental villa, I'm not using this post to seek business -- we're well (& happily) booked into next April.

The concerns of all offering input here, thus, are clearly understood and highly meaningful. Personally, I'm appreciative of friends in island restaurants -- where I spend some time -- who attentively, in my view, watch-out for the welfare of guests {"locals" & visitors) and staff. Combining this assessment with my own judgment about (& practice with respect to) health-safety give me a high degree of confidence.

I hope that everyone finds his / her "happy place" as doubts persist about the safety of visiting on St. Barths . . . and I expect that the island will remain a very special place whenever each of you chooses to return (if you do).

Good and sensible post Dennis, in my view. Hope you are having a great time, I know you are! Look forward to our return this April, Lord willing. Tell Yann and Alice' hello from us!!
Cheers!!

I usually don't post but I so very much have to agree with Dennis. We reside on SBH at our villa more than half of a year sometimes however we are now back in San Diego. We already so look forward to returning to the island next month where the views are amazing, food is wonderful, and friends are awesome. This time we don't plant to leave until sometime mid-next year. Of course for everyone there is always personal choice and circumstance however during these times, it is SBH where we were able to 'live' safely and comfortably and have the most fun with friends and neighbors. I hope everyone can enjoy! This forum is excellent for keeping up to date from the road detours to the amazing restaurants to the health and safety of everyone. My only hope is people check back frequently as these times can also consistently improve and get much better! Here's to hoping that 2022 is healthier for all.

jamiem4 said:

Here's to hoping that 2022 is healthier for all.

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Jamie, you nailed it

Stay safe and healthy

Chipper said:

Good and sensible post Dennis, in my view. Hope you are having a great time, I know you are! Look forward to our return this April, Lord willing. Tell Yann and Alice' hello from us!!
Cheers!!

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Yann & Alice left — separately — earlier this week for their vacations in France. Both were eagerly looking forward to vacance. The final lunch of the season was last Saturday . . . over 60 guests, which — as you are able to appreciate — was a “full house” through the day. Hope to see you next April!

kent1994 said:

I hope you are correct. I haven't cancelled but I am concerned.

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some further encouragement. We shall see what future holds…

cassidain said:

some further encouragement. We shall see what future holds...

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Keep in mind that many states do not report data on weekends and holidays. Labor Day added a low reporting day to the current 7 day interval.

The number of covid-19 patients in hospitals in the United States has more than doubledsince last Labor Day, a sobering statistic that illustrates how the delta variant has hampered progress in curbing the pandemic even as vaccines became widely available.



There were 38,192 people in hospitals with the virus last Labor Day, on Sept. 7, 2020, at a time when the promise of a vaccine rollout was still a few months away, according to a Washington Post tracker. This figure has skyrocketed to 99,270 by Sept 6. 2021 — a 160 percent increase.



While the situation is not as dire as it was at the beginning of this year, when more than 3,100 people were dying of covid-19 dailyin January, the rise in hospital admissions for covid patients is straining resources in many states. Hospitals inFlorida and Mississippi have said in recent weeks that they are running out of ICU beds — which also affectspatients who need other kinds of health care since the facilities don’t have the space or staff to treat them

Izzy said:

Keep in mind that many states do not report data on weekends and holidays. Labor Day added a low reporting day to the current 7 day interval.
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right. We’ll have to see where numbers go. But previous number was same as week before. So that’s encouraging too.