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Thread: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

  1. #1
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Sorry, this is only the Atlantic Outlook

    Three tropical waves currently out there, but none appear to be heading the direction of our belle île.

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  2. #2
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,018

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Fantastique!

  3. #3
    GramChop is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Austin, Texas Posts: 17,832

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Yay for St Barth.

    Oh, dang for the Northeastern US.
    The waves of the sea bring me back to me.

  4. #4
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Good news but still a long ways to go!

  5. #5
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Quote Originally Posted by stbartshopper View Post
    Good news but still a long ways to go!
    current five day forecast:
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    still a long way to go thru hurricane season, no doubt.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  6. #6
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Potentially Ida, Julian and Kate-
    An update- now an 80% probability at least one of the three will develop into a storm-
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.orl...outputType=amp

  7. #7
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
    wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
    south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
    to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
    to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
    west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
    Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
    Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
    Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
    development to occur.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles
    southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
    expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
    winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
    more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
    to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
    eastward over the central Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
    several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
    producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
    development of this system is possible over the next several days
    while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
    tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
    conducive for development by this weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  8. #8
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    So it seems none of those three potential storms are concerns for SBH?

  9. #9
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

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    Ida expected to visit Louisiana as a Cat 2 or 3 H, TS 10 is expected to head due North and weaken to a TD, Invest 1 is headed NorthEast, so Invest 2 is the only TW folks on SBH will be keeping an eye on over next days. Question is how North and how West it travels and how much it strengthens . . . or not. À suivre . . .

    2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
    by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
    appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of
    next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
    10 to 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  10. #10
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Invest 1 off the coast of Africa may be one to keep a close eye on

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    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Ida, located inland over western Mississippi, and on recently
    upgraded Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical
    Atlantic.

    1. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an
    area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical
    Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off
    the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive
    for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
    the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at
    10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  11. #11
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Looks like a hurricane coming. Hopefully steering out to sea. À suivre. . .
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    142
    WTNT42 KNHC 312035
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
    800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Satellite imagery, along with earlier scatterometer data, indicates
    that the low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic has
    a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to
    be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
    initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve. The initial intensity is
    set at 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
    SAB as well as the scatterometer data.

    The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. A strong low-
    to mid-level ridge to the north should cause the cyclone to move
    westward at a faster forward speed for the next 36 h or so,
    followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest
    by the end of the period as the depression moves along the
    southwest side of the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance
    after 36-48 h, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean showing a more
    northward motion while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a
    more westward motion. The official forecast is near the middle of
    the guidance envelope and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
    model, which is a little to the south of the other consensus models.

    Conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 72
    h or so as the cyclone is in a moist environment with light shear
    and warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast thus
    calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 h or so and
    reach hurricane strength in 48-60 h. By the end of the forecast
    period, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler
    water and into a drier air mass. Based on this, the intensity
    forecast calls for a slower development rate. The official
    intensity forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and
    it is possibly conservative given that many of the global models
    are showing the development of a large and powerful tropical
    cyclone.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 31/2100Z 11.2N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
    60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
    120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  12. #12
    cec1 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,018

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Case . . . I appreciate the guidance & hope that you will spell out any risks for me in simple terms. Like, “batten down the hatches” or “get the hell out of there!” LOL!

  13. #13
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Mon ami, I’m sure you’re plugged into savvy island grapevine. But, I’ll try to do my bit
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  14. #14
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    the latest forecast. you dont want to encounter this storm.

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  15. #15
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,311

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    You would think we are at the height of hurricane season <checking calendar> Oh, we are!
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  16. #16
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  17. #17
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    a TW to keep an eye on. conducive environmental conditions and westerly direction

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    2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
    and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
    Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
    development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
    weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the
    far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system is
    likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo
    Verde Islands later today and tonight.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  18. #18
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  19. #19
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

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    1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
    located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
    to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
    expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical
    depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
    the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the
    eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  20. #20
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Rose and Peter headed out to sea, but Invest #1 off the coast of Africa is next one to keep an eye on . . .

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    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Peter, located east-northeast of the northernmost Leeward
    Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern
    tropical Atlantic Ocean.

    1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
    several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
    is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms that are showing
    some signs of organization. Upper-level winds are expected to
    become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a
    tropical depression is likely to form by Friday while the system
    moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  21. #21

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    The latter part of next week looks scary.

  22. #22
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,311

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Yes indeed!

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    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  23. #23
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,311

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    Hoo-Boy!

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    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  24. #24
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

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    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 222054
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    The tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring over the last several
    days has gradually become better organized. The satellite structure
    in particular is quite impressive for a tropical depression, with
    both the 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
    at T2.5/35 kt. This bigger question, however, was if the system
    possessed a well-defined closed earth-relative circulation. An
    ASCAT-C pass from earlier this morning hinted that the circulation
    was becoming better defined, with the development of westerly
    low-level winds to the south of the convective shield. This westerly
    low-level flow is also confirmed by atmospheric motion vectors
    (AMVs) available from the GOES-16 meso domain over the system. While
    the low-level circulation may still be somewhat broad, it now
    appears to be well-defined enough to mark the formation of a
    tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30-kt, in
    agreement with peak wind retrievals of 28-30 kt by the earlier
    scatterometer data.

    The initial motion is estimated to be at 270/13 kt, though this is
    somewhat uncertain given that the center has only recently formed.
    An expansive mid-level ridge is located to the north and west of
    the cyclone, which should maintain its heading toward the west,
    though with a gradual gain in latitude as the system approaches
    the western extent of the ridge by day 5. The track guidance is in
    excellent agreement on this track evolution for the first three
    days, with just a bit more spread in the guidance thereafter. The
    ECMWF and its ensemble mean towards the end of the forecast is on
    the left side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and HWRF
    models are currently on the right side. For the first NHC track
    forecast, I have elected to stay close to the track consensus aids,
    taking a blend of the HCCA and TCVN aids which are near the
    middle of the guidance envelope.

    The environment ahead of the tropical depression appears quite
    favorable for intensification. Vertical wind shear is forecast by
    both the ECWMF- and GFS-based SHIPS guidance to stay at or under 10
    kt for the next 3-5 days as the storm traverses warm 28-29 C sea
    surface temperatures. Most of the guidance responds to this
    environment by indicating strengthening, and the NHC intensity
    guidance follows suit, showing a steady increase in intensity
    throughout the forecast period. While it might take a bit of time
    for the formative low-level circulation to become vertically aligned
    with the mid-level center, once that occurs, it is possible a period
    of rapid intensification could occur during the five day forecast.
    The forecast intensity by 120 hours (100 kt) is on the higher end of
    the guidance envelope, but not as high as the latest HWRF or HAFS-B
    forecasts.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/2100Z 10.1N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
    60H 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  25. #25
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    this current graph appears to represent tracks of all the models. consensus seems to be solid cat 3 and a near miss for saint-barth. undoubtedly, our island friends are following this storm very closely.

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  26. #26
    amyb is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Apr 2008 Glen Cove,L. I., NY Posts: 28,487

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    I like the MISS part of this forecast, Cass

    Keep safe and dry friends and family.
    Remember Yesterday, Dream About Tomorrow, But Live Today.

  27. #27
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    The peak season parade continues, as Sam begins to weaken and move across open ocean, and two new tropical disturbances move westward from off the coast of Africa.

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    2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
    area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
    Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
    conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a
    tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves
    westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    3. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
    later today. Upper-level winds are forecast to be conducive for
    gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely
    to form in a few days while the system moves westward to
    west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
    Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  28. #28
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,803

    Re: Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

    For Oct 7 in storm season not bad.

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    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

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