Current Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook

cassidain

Senior Insider
Sorry, this is only the Atlantic Outlook :cool:

Three tropical waves currently out there, but none appear to be heading the direction of our belle île.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 
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Ida expected to visit Louisiana as a Cat 2 or 3 H, TS 10 is expected to head due North and weaken to a TD, Invest 1 is headed NorthEast, so Invest 2 is the only TW folks on SBH will be keeping an eye on over next days. Question is how North and how West it travels and how much it strengthens . . . or not. À suivre . . .

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of
next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Invest 1 off the coast of Africa may be one to keep a close eye on

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located inland over western Mississippi, and on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

1. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an
area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical
Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off
the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Looks like a hurricane coming. Hopefully steering out to sea. À suivre. . .
144301F6-DD29-42FB-AEED-B253963EA805.png
142
WTNT42 KNHC 312035
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

Satellite imagery, along with earlier scatterometer data, indicates
that the low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic has
a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to
be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB as well as the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. A strong low-
to mid-level ridge to the north should cause the cyclone to move
westward at a faster forward speed for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest
by the end of the period as the depression moves along the
southwest side of the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance
after 36-48 h, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean showing a more
northward motion while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a
more westward motion. The official forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
model, which is a little to the south of the other consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 72
h or so as the cyclone is in a moist environment with light shear
and warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast thus
calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 h or so and
reach hurricane strength in 48-60 h. By the end of the forecast
period, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler
water and into a drier air mass. Based on this, the intensity
forecast calls for a slower development rate. The official
intensity forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and
it is possibly conservative given that many of the global models
are showing the development of a large and powerful tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 11.2N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Case . . . I appreciate the guidance & hope that you will spell out any risks for me in simple terms. Like, “batten down the hatches” or “get the hell out of there!” LOL!
 
You would think we are at the height of hurricane season <checking calendar> Oh, we are!
 
a TW to keep an eye on. conducive environmental conditions and westerly direction

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2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo
Verde Islands later today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Rose and Peter headed out to sea, but Invest #1 off the coast of Africa is next one to keep an eye on . . .

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Peter, located east-northeast of the northernmost Leeward
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms that are showing
some signs of organization. Upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by Friday while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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