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Thread: To Go Or Not To Go?

  1. #1
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    To Go Or Not To Go?

    Sunsets, beaches, sea life, nature, iguanas, goats, sunrises, rain, lizards, the washing machine, waves… don’t know about covid. We think we do?
    Do we go or do we not?
    Life is short but we want to live it!
    On the other hand….

  2. #2
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,174

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Since we are approaching max hurricane probability and many closures for September and October, the tourist season is largely over as are many seasonal jobs. Hopefully this will result in better times when season 21/22 commences in November.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  3. #3
    didier is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2005 flamands Posts: 6,281

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by JEK View Post
    Since we are approaching max hurricane probability and many closures for September and October, the tourist season is largely over as are many seasonal jobs. Hopefully this will result in better times when season 21/22 commences in November.
    my friends are still renting out their villas. the season is slow, but definitely not over. so many tourists on the island right now, more than in previous years.

  4. #4
    Gables is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Aug 2020 Posts: 40

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    We are still planning on going.

    We are a fully vaccinated family of 5 leaving from three different cities in the U.S. on three different airlines for SXM and then SBH on Friday, August 13. And, while there are many tests to pass, forms to fill out, lines to wait in, planes to catch, and restrictions to deal with, the thought of relaxing by the pool at our villa after completing all of these necessary obstacles seems to make it all worthwhile.

    Will there be some anxious moments as we await the test results on the back-end of the trip? Absolutely. We are not concerned about our health but the inconvenience and impact a delayed return (due to a positive test result) would cause to our daily lives. Many work and work-related commitments await. Kids need to attend college. Dog sitter has other plans, etc. But, that will not stop us from going and enjoying this island paradise.

    Just my $.02, your mileage may vary.

  5. #5

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    We are returning come heck or high water on November 6 after cancelling 4 times since April 2020..we are vaccinated and will do all required testing....we are looking forward to returning to our special place, it is much needed...
    Steve and Aimee

  6. #6
    GMP62 is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Feb 2015 Martinsville, NJ Posts: 2,128

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by shihadehs View Post
    We are returning come heck or high water on November 6 after cancelling 4 times since April 2020..we are vaccinated and will do all required testing....we are looking forward to returning to our special place, it is much needed...
    Same for us! April, 2022 can't get here fast enough.

  7. #7
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by JEK View Post
    Hopefully this will result in better times when season 21/22 commences in November.
    that is my prediction as well. 2 months from inflection point to peak of infections. then precipitous decline.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  8. #8
    dgberczik is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2011 Pittsburgh, PA USA Posts: 89

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    So far, we are full steam ahead for November. Not that we aren't talking about it every day and wondering if we should have waited one more year. And then we start talking about the feeling you get as you step off the plane in St. Jean, the warm air circling around you, your appetite suddenly piqued, a relaxation permeating your body. And we tell ourselves that three months is a while and we can cancel later on if we need to. We've isolated, tested, vaxxed, and tested again. We are ready to go. We also are ready to accept if the world does not accommodate us this time around. But that air...

  9. #9
    steelpe is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2010 Posts: 457

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    I guess we are the opposite of everyone here.

    We had a general outline to make a visit in February 2021 when COVID hit in March of 2020. Luckily nothing was booked and we decided to pause our trip until later (pessimistically thinking it would be February 2023). Now, with the current outbreaks 2023 doesn't look good and we are not sure we will ever step foot on the island again. I am an independent consultant and until there are a lot less hoops to jump through we are not interested in stepping on a plane.

    I am glad to hear that the island is very busy though. Hopefully hurricane season will provide enough of a break.... without storms.... and allow the island to calm things down on the virus front.

  10. #10
    JEK is offline
    Senior Insider Joined: Jan 2004 In the ether . . . Posts: 55,174

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    If here is the Forum in general, I think there more than a few thinking along those lines. We have nothing booked for 2022 and are looking forward to 2023.
    The Marius 100th Birthday Party Memorial -- June 5, 2023

  11. #11
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    We were there in Feb. 2020 for 3 weeks and all was perfect.
    We canceled 2021 and all was either refunded or tickets extended to 12/31/22 for both AA and TW. We rebooked 2022 and are hoping to return. Just don’t know.
    Unfortunately human behavior and the virus will decide for us.

  12. #12
    Jim A is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jan 2017 NY Posts: 840

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelpe View Post
    I guess we are the opposite of everyone here.

    We had a general outline to make a visit in February 2021 when COVID hit in March of 2020. Luckily nothing was booked and we decided to pause our trip until later (pessimistically thinking it would be February 2023). Now, with the current outbreaks 2023 doesn't look good and we are not sure we will ever step foot on the island again. I am an independent consultant and until there are a lot less hoops to jump through we are not interested in stepping on a plane.

    I am glad to hear that the island is very busy though. Hopefully hurricane season will provide enough of a break.... without storms.... and allow the island to calm things down on the virus front.
    "(pessimistically thinking it would be February 2023). Now, with the current outbreaks 2023 doesn't look good and we are not sure we will ever step foot on the island again"

    Wow. Feb 2023 (a year and a half from now) "not looking good" is indeed somewhat pessimistic. Never again is a whole other level...
    I hope you do get back some day soon

  13. #13
    didier is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2005 flamands Posts: 6,281

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim A View Post
    "(pessimistically thinking it would be February 2023). Now, with the current outbreaks 2023 doesn't look good and we are not sure we will ever step foot on the island again"

    Wow. Feb 2023 (a year and a half from now) "not looking good" is indeed somewhat pessimistic. Never again is a whole other level...
    I hope you do get back some day soon

    or hold off till 2024, the year all vaccine companies lose their protection against lawsuits.

  14. #14
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by stbartshopper View Post
    Unfortunately human behavior and the virus will decide for us.
    human behavior ?
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  15. #15
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Human Behavior and Virus Behavior. We don’t assume one is dependent on the other.

  16. #16
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by stbartshopper View Post
    Human Behavior and Virus Behavior. We don’t assume one is dependent on the other.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  17. #17
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    In other words- there is thought the successful propagating of the virus is dependent on human behavior- transmission, development of variants, severity of disease. Therefore if humans ‘behaved’ the virus would be ‘tamed.’ On the other hand, viruses are alive; want to survive and don’t depend on human behavior to thrive. We don’t know the answers- we can only hope that improving our behavior in line with medical advice will decrease the adverse impacts of the pandemic.

  18. #18
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 67

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by didier View Post
    or hold off till 2024, the year all vaccine companies lose their protection against lawsuits.
    Ah, Didier, what is the year I can sue someone for not being vaccinated and spreading the virus unimpeded like a reckless driver in a pedestrian zone?

  19. #19
    didier is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2005 flamands Posts: 6,281

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Happycamper View Post
    Ah, Didier, what is the year I can sue someone for not being vaccinated and spreading the virus unimpeded like a reckless driver in a pedestrian zone?

    If you go on the cdc website, the vaccinated are spreading the virus also. hmm

  20. #20
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by didier View Post
    If you go on the cdc website, the vaccinated are spreading the virus also. hmm
    study I saw says jabbed have same viral loads as reckless refusers.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  21. #21
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Hoo Boy- the vax vs. unvaxed debate once again. Please don’t continue and escalate as the words and feelings only get ‘uglier’ to no avail.

  22. #22
    andynap is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Oct 2002 Philadelphia Posts: 45,146

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by cassidain View Post
    study I saw says jabbed have same viral loads as reckless refusers.
    Yes but not as sick as unvaxxed.


    Andy

  23. #23
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by andynap View Post
    Yes but not as sick as unvaxxed.
    from the CDC on that point:

    "There is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe for those who are vaccinated and still get sick"
    There is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe for those who are vaccinated and still get sick.” CDC

    "There is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe for those who are vaccinated and still get sick.”
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  24. #24

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Perhaps it is best to ask the doctors themselves. Why not settle this argument and phone Centre Hospitalier de Bruyn in Gustavia, ask to speak to the head doctor (not the receptionist, not the nurse -- the head doctor), and then inquire about what percentage of admitted patients suffering from COVID-19 are fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated? If the statistics on the island mimic those in North America and Europe, the answer you will receive will be that 90%+ are unvaccinated and that of those needing ICU level attention, 97%+ are unvaccinated.

    With over 50% of the eligible population on St. Barts fully vaccinated, the statistics will speak for themselves.

  25. #25
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 67

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Garykool81, I've been looking for those numbers from solid data sources but not finding it easy to find. I'm not doubting the truth of it, but would love a pointer to a good study or report if you have one. The thing that makes it not easy to compare is if only older people in a community are vax'ed then they may actually hospitalized at a greater rate than unvaxed young people who pretty much have no problem with Covid anyway.

    Didier, of course vaccinated people can be spreaders as well. All too often vaccinated people think they are invincible and drop all their social distancing behaviors. We could do the math and say if a vaxed person is 1/10th as likely to catch the virus but behave in a way that is 10X riskier than an unvaxed person then the two people are equally dangerous to the community. What we need is 3 months of vaxing AND social distancing. Or at this point I'd be ok with 3 months of hugs and kisses for all and get the herd immunity up at whatever cost. Either way we would have the numbers down by Christmas.

  26. #26
    cassidain is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Jul 2007 Ailleurs Posts: 7,733

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    instructive to look at infections and deaths data for 2 locations that ran into India variant (Delta) before US: India and UK.
    you can see how long surge lasted in both cases and death toll.
    Fils du Sud - Roi des Fils Verrouillés

    If I can't wear my Havaianas, I ain't goin'...ÀMHA

  27. #27
    REK is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Aug 2020 Posts: 94

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    I live in Vermont which has the highest vaccination rate in the US (85% 18 and up, >99% 65 and up) and yet we are seeing a huge spike. The new infections are almost all in the 15% unvaccinated. That tells me herd immunity isn't really working for us as this virus (Delta) is going to find you unless you are protected.

  28. #28
    Jeanette is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Apr 2005 Cambridge, MA Posts: 7,592

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Happycamper View Post
    Garykool81, I've been looking for those numbers from solid data sources but not finding it easy to find. I'm not doubting the truth of it, but would love a pointer to a good study or report if you have one. The thing that makes it not easy to compare is if only older people in a community are vax'ed then they may actually hospitalized at a greater rate than unvaxed young people who pretty much have no problem with Covid anyway.

    Didier, of course vaccinated people can be spreaders as well. All too often vaccinated people think they are invincible and drop all their social distancing behaviors. We could do the math and say if a vaxed person is 1/10th as likely to catch the virus but behave in a way that is 10X riskier than an unvaxed person then the two people are equally dangerous to the community. What we need is 3 months of vaxing AND social distancing. Or at this point I'd be ok with 3 months of hugs and kisses for all and get the herd immunity up at whatever cost. Either way we would have the numbers down by Christmas.
    Hi. I was reviewing this report from the Washington State Department of Health that was published this week. Here's a link to the report and a summary of the findings:COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in Persons Who Are Not Fully Vaccinated (wa.gov)

    Summary Findings At a glance
    • 96.5% of COVID-19 cases from February 1, 2021 – July 24, 2021 were not fully vaccinated
    • 96.0% of COVID-19 cases from February 1, 2021 – July 24, 2021 who were hospitalized were not fully vaccinated
    • 94.6% of COVID-19 cases from February 1, 2021 – July 24, 2021 who died from COVID-19 were not fully vaccinated
    Liberté, Égalité, Sororité

  29. #29
    Happycamper is offline
    SBH Member Joined: Apr 2020 Boston Posts: 67

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Excellent detective work Jeanette, thank you, thank you.

    I read through the report and HATE that they can't resist oversimplifying the data in ways that create opportunities for critique, but we can still pull some useful results from it. (Two problems I have is that first, they combine age groups in their summary, which distorts the data since different ages behave very differently with this disease, and second they combined 4 month of data even the vaccination rate was very different over those months. But whatever, we can persevere.)

    So, taking a single age group, 50-64 (mine!)
    Percent of age group vaccinated 60%
    Percent of covid cases in that age group who were vaccinated 4% (if the vaccine didn't work you'd see a 60% here.)
    Percent of covid hospitalizations in that age group who were vaccinated 2% (the 4% dropping to 2% shows the infected vaccinated get less sick.)
    Percent of covid deaths in that age group who were vaccinated 1% (the 2% dropping to 1% shows the sick vaccinated get less dead.)

    That is the general pattern we were expecting, the vaccinated are getting sick much less commonly than the unvaccinated (about 1/15th the rate) and beyond that, is that the sick vaccinated are going to the hospital at half the rate of the sick unvaccinated (meaning if you do get sick, you won't get as sick) and then the vaccinated hospitalized are dying at half the rate of an unvaccinated hospitalized patient. Or an unvaccinated 50-65 year old is about 60 times MORE likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person. As mentioned above, the data isn't exactly pure (Why Washington State, Why??), so the exact benefit isn't exactly these numbers but they are in the ball park.

    The vaccine benefit exists for every age group if we parse them each out separately.

    Q.E.D.

  30. #30
    stbartshopper is offline
    SBH Insider Joined: Dec 2013 Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S.A. Posts: 11,317

    Re: To Go Or Not To Go?

    Sanjay Gupta has said rather than categorize as vaccinated and unvaccinated, he now says vaccinated and infected. He has suggested that 100% of the unvaccinated will become infected with Delta but having previously had Covid should help with immunity and severity.

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