The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Dolly Tuesday

WTNT34 KNHC 221200
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...NOAA PLANE IN THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO
SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

WTNT44 KNHC 220833
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED A LITTLE...TO 997 MB. THE SFMR ON BOARD
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
BUT THESE READINGS WERE IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH
PROBABLY CAUSED SPIKES IN THE VELOCITY VALUES. ASSUMING THAT THESE
WERE OVERESTIMATES BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRESSURE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE
OF DOLLY AND POURING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL/HWRF PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ONCE DOLLY ESTABLISHES AN INNER CORE...I.E. AN EYEWALL-LIKE
STRUCTURE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID IN
COMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THUS FAR. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT DOLLY WOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...OR 280/13.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION ARE FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY THE PORTION OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFDL/HWRF TRACKS. AGAIN IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 23.3N 93.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 24.1N 95.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 96.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 25.7N 97.5W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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