Nah, lot more variables here, tim....for instance, no track.
Weight, sailhandling, navigation, and the amount of abuse you feel like taking to sail fast. 2AM sail changes, cold water down your neck, crappy food, limited sleep, and when you get it, it's in damp clothes on a tiny bunk in a pitching boat...by now, they're sick of it, and now is when they need to pull out the last bits of inner strength to prevail. Definitely a young person's game...
This is kinda cool...it's (IMHO) a real horse race. The southern guys have made the right bet...also interesting to see how even the C-SBH track is, and how much time/mileage was lost by the zig zagging of the other competitors...