Erma
Reged: 10/05/02
Posts: 515
Loc: North Georgia
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From the 5:00 p.m. report I would gather that a Tropical Storm watch for the FWI (St. Martin/Barth) won't be too far off:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 132041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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It LOOKS as though this one will pass SBH pretty quickly before becoming anything major. Let us hope so.
Thanks for the warning.
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Erma
Reged: 10/05/02
Posts: 515
Loc: North Georgia
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Here's hoping for the rain Rosita requested this weekend! (but nothing too fierce...)
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rosita
Reged: 06/11/03
Posts: 296
Loc: st-barthelemy
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you know what Erma? no rain yet.....
your friend
Rosita
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jdr
Reged: 04/25/03
Posts: 323
Loc: Boston
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It pretty much developed on top of the area, and yes, should be gone before it can cause too much trouble.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411.html
--------------------
St. Barths Flickr Group!
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Erma
Reged: 10/05/02
Posts: 515
Loc: North Georgia
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Jeff & IV, yep...I know this one doesn't even come close to our Frances/Ivan saga's but....this was a head's up for those traveling to the island/from the island in the immediate time frame. I for one would not want to board the ferry any time soon! With all eye's focused on Ivan this one sort of popped up and may delay travel plans for a short term. Hopefully for all ...it will be an unexpected delay in departing St. Barth vs. getting to the island.
Still hoping for "Rosita's Rain" to come in....maybe there is some wind to at least help with the heat.
Safe travels to all, Erma
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andy
Reged: 10/06/02
Posts: 215
Loc: Englishman in St Barth
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Its now four in the afternoon, its raining pretty steadily. A bit gusty, but no strong winds. Hopefully it won't get any worse than this. I was supposed to be off for a weeks golf tomorrow in the dominican republic, we'll see....
Satellite tv is out of action with the heavy clouds, so I can't watch Chelsea hammering Paris St Germain in the Champions League, Peter Pan on a DVD with Matthew instead. Hope to be able to open the restaurant tonight, will play it by ear.
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GrimmReaper
Reged: 01/10/03
Posts: 116
Loc: Just north of Hell, Mi.
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http://www.freep.com Andy, check the local paper for the latest Ryder Cup news...second day of practice is today. Looks like Mobile, Ala. might get the worst of Ivan. Good to hear that everyone is doing fine.
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Erma
Reged: 10/05/02
Posts: 515
Loc: North Georgia
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Thanks for the update Andy
....and when you or Rosita decide you have 'had enough rain'...just let me know. I'll pop in my Nina Simone cd with "Here comes the sun", click my sandals two times, throw back a shot of vanilla rhum and POOF it will be gone in no time!
Hope you can reschedule your gold outing. Best regards, Erma
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