MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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The computer models are projected impact for our area. This is about the same path Hurricane Charlie took a few years ago. This time there may not be that last minute turn that we saw in Charlie. The turn saved our butts in Sarasota, sorry for Charlotte.
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY.
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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fins85258
Reged: 05/02/05
Posts: 1092
Loc: Scottsdale, Az
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ..........
That's gonna put a damper on the diner invitation I was going to extend
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Just left the Emergency Operations Center. Still up in the air where Fay will go after Cuba, but we're certainly in for a little nasty weather regardless of it's track....
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5995
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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Martin,
Keep us posted. It looks like a lot of Florida will be impacted by Fay.
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The best moderation is the least moderation.
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Next EOC meeting is at 11:00 this morning. Right now it looks like it may go in (landfall) just to the south of me. This is my best option (sorry to Ft. Myers) as it gets the wind decreased before it gets to me. If it doesn't go in and comes north it will really be bad for us here as the eye will be close to land.
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Right now, if you took the track from Hurricane Charlie (2004) and the projected track of Hurricane Fay and laided them one on top of the each other you would find they are the same. Hurrevac has Fay going in at Charlotte Harbor..Sure it will change in the next 24 hrs or so.
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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