The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Tropical Storm Edouard /// Monday

WTNT35 KNHC 041752
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
100 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EDOUARD AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

WWWW
WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX. IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.2N 90.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.4N 92.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 94.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 29.7N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

WWWW

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