The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Dolly Wednesday

WTNT34 KNHC 231250
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH...116 KM/HR AND MATAMOROS MEXICO
REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

WTNT44 KNHC 230844
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2
INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT
ADDITIONAL DECELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS BEFORE. THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.6N 96.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.4W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 98.7W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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You can rest when you're dead !!!

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