The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Cristobal Tuesday

WTNT33 KNHC 220842
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
450 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL
LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

WTNT43 KNHC 220842
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 50 KT.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. CRISTOBAL'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH
COOLER SSTS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY INDICATE CRISTOBAL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER....SINCE THERE WILL BE
LIMITED BAROCLINIC FORCING...WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY.

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD BETWEEN
24-48 HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MERGES
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT AT DAY 3. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 39.1N 68.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 41.0N 65.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 43.4N 60.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 23/1800Z 44.0N 55.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.3N 50.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0600Z 40.0N 43.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z...ABSORBED

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