The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Cristobal

WTNT33 KNHC 210852
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...36.1 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

WTNT43 KNHC 210901
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST
QUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB. OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFMR RECORDED 59 KT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED
FROM THE LARGE ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT AS A
COMPROMISE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE
CYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IT'S SPEED OF ADVANCE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH
FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE ENTITY DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A
BEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 37.2N 72.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 39.7N 69.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 23/0600Z 44.4N 61.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/0600Z 45.0N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED

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