The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Dolly

WTNT34 KNHC 210853
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER OF THE
STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...87.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 210856
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING
INFLUENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF
FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
STEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND
CONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT
LATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3
DAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.

ANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER
THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.3N 87.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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You can rest when you're dead !!!

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