MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
1. (L94 Below)
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. (L96 Below)
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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fins85258
Reged: 05/02/05
Posts: 1090
Loc: Scottsdale, Az
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A novelty was reported on NPR this morning when they stated that we would be under a HIGH HEAT advisory from 10a.m. to 8p.m. tomorrow. This led me to wonder if something has changed in the universe and the sun will not be setting tonight?
Ahhhhhhhhh yes, 110 + and loving it!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 AM MST FRI JUL 18 2008
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MEANS HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND TO COLORADO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BOTH LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER SATURDAY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY. AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES WERE SUNNY OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY. AND...EVEN THOUGH RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO RUSH INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH THE
HEAT INDEX CLOSE TO THE SAME.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF WE ARE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...STAY TUNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRI...ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MOGOLLON PLATEAU. MIXING RATIOS BELOW 750 MB WILL AVERAGE 7.5 G/KG
PER THE LATEST NAM-WRF. EVEN WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE 110
DEGREES IN PHOENIX...THIS PRODUCES AN ELEVATED LCL AND NEGLIGIBLE
CAPE. MAIN SOURCE OF WARM ADVECTION TODAY WILL OCCUR AT 700
MB...WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ABOUT A DEGREE INCREASE AT THE SURFACE.
AFTER A HIGH OF 110 DEGREES THU...WILL SHOOT FOR A HIGH OF 111
DEGREES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TODAY
WILL BE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING (THROUGH SAT NIGHT)...WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SAT-SUN...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SONORA AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL GENERATE A MORE FAVORABLE
SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUN AS PWATS ARE PROJECTED TO
APPROACH 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
MOS TEMPERATURES...WHICH INDICATE THAT WE WILL FAIL TO REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK.
EXTENDED...THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
GFS SUGGESTS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SHUNT THE FOUR
CORNERS RIDGE AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR OR EVEN
ABOVE AVERAGE POPS. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18 UTC SATURDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KPHX AND KIWA AIRFIELDS AFTER 20 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS EASTWARD AFTER 18 UTC SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS EASTWARD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/HIRSCH
AVIATION...WANEK
FIRE WEATHER...WANEK
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Yes,,, but it's a dry heat.... LOL
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 771
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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I was in Phoenix last summer for a conference. I toured the tent city, or jail as it is called. Standing outside in the breeze felt like someone had a blow torch pointed at your face....
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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fins85258
Reged: 05/02/05
Posts: 1090
Loc: Scottsdale, Az
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Aint no place like home!
Next time your headed this way give Karen and I a heads up.
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