The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Bertha Monday 0800

WTNT32 KNHC 141141
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFFECTING BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 68
MPH...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

WWWW
WTNT42 KNHC 140900
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

BERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7. THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR
OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TODAY. THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND
HWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.

BERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS. ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND
STARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE
STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST
TO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK
INCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A
LITTLE. THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.5N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 32.6N 63.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.8N 62.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.4N 61.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 59.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 51.0W 50 KT

WWWW

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