The Insiders' Guide to St. Barths: Bertha Wednesday

WTNT32 KNHC 091437
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST WED JUL 09 2008

...BERTHA MAINTAINING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 715
MILES...1150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.2 N...57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

WTNT42 KNHC 091440
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE EYE APPEARS
TO BE REFORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON 1200Z
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS BUT BERTHA LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING.
IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OR EVEN WHEN
REINTENSIFICATION MIGHT OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER AND SHOWS BERTHA STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BUT
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAKING IT UNCLEAR WHETHER
INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES THE PREVIOUSLY SHOWN TREND OF SLOW WEAKENING. AS
THE ABOVE SHOWS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...300/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TURN NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE. RATHER...IT LEAVES
BERTHA BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AS A RESULT...THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES WEST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.2N 57.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 24.7N 58.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 25.9N 59.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 27.2N 60.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.3N 61.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 61.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 60.5W 60 KT

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