St. Barts Discussion >> Storm Tracker

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stbartslover



Reged: 02/09/03
Posts: 872
Loc: Ann Arbor. Flamands Blue
TD 8?
      #108433 - 09/12/07 04:23 PM

Could be there Monday night depending on the track.

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JoshA



Reged: 08/28/05
Posts: 2237
Loc: Virginia
Re: TD 8? new [Re: stbartslover]
      #108444 - 09/12/07 05:43 PM

Pretty hard to tell where it's going due to the large variance in predicted tracks.


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EARL



Reged: 06/14/03
Posts: 364
Loc: Tidewater area of Virginia
Re: TD 8? new [Re: JoshA]
      #108453 - 09/13/07 03:41 AM

Latest advisory:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/130844.shtml

--------------------
EARL
"If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck"


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SELES



Reged: 03/15/03
Posts: 1826
Re: TD 8? new [Re: EARL]
      #108455 - 09/13/07 04:17 AM

Just north of Anguilla/SXM/SBH on Tuesday as a TS.

The US southeast coastline-north is not out of question, and this one will strengthen.

Ric

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084525.shtml?5day?large#contents


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NHDiane



Reged: 08/06/03
Posts: 842
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: TD 8? new [Re: SELES]
      #108483 - 09/13/07 08:05 AM

Our local stations are telling us this morning that the storm does not show that the conditions are favorable for strengthening. I think another bullet will be dodged.

--------------------
NH Di

"Viva Vitet"


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SELES



Reged: 03/15/03
Posts: 1826
Re: TD 8? new [Re: NHDiane]
      #108488 - 09/13/07 08:41 AM

Quote:

Our local stations are telling us this morning that the storm does not show that the conditions are favorable for strengthening. I think another bullet will be dodged.




Probably true over the next 5 days, but beyond NOAA says different. I tend to stick with them & 3 trusty models for long range. Next week will tell, but living in the SE USA & having properties in Bullseye areas for Hurricanes, believe me when I say we are well studied on this subject & follow it like most follow a particular sport. Wish I didn't but have to...I have been in one Cat 5 Hurricane on SBH and Never Again if I can help it. The nightmares lasted for over a month!

Ric


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JEKModerator
Moderator


Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 10714
Loc: Northern Virginia
Re: TD 8? NOAA track new [Re: SELES]
      #108489 - 09/13/07 08:57 AM



--------------------
Carnaval 2009: Mardi 24 Février 2009!!!!
JEK


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NHDiane



Reged: 08/06/03
Posts: 842
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: TD 8? new [Re: SELES]
      #108495 - 09/13/07 10:28 AM

Ric, Yes, I'm sure NOAA knows a lot more than our Boston stations! Located where you are I have no doubt that you are an expert as well. So that said, I'll continue to keep my eye on it! I didn't know that a Cat 5 storm ever hit SBH..how long ago was that and what the hell did you do? Head to Vitet?

--------------------
NH Di

"Viva Vitet"


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stbartslover



Reged: 02/09/03
Posts: 872
Loc: Ann Arbor. Flamands Blue
Re: TD 8? new [Re: NHDiane]
      #108558 - 09/14/07 01:37 AM

JEK,
How do you find all this?
Hey Ric lets hope for the best, although I do like those hurricane survival stories.


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JEKModerator
Moderator


Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 10714
Loc: Northern Virginia
Re: TD 8? new [Re: stbartslover]
      #108560 - 09/14/07 03:32 AM

Quote:

JEK,
How do you find all this?
Hey Ric lets hope for the best, although I do like those hurricane survival stories.




I've had the NOAA site bookmarked for years. The best source for tropical storms.


Thetrack as of this morning:



--------------------
Carnaval 2009: Mardi 24 Février 2009!!!!
JEK


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SELES



Reged: 03/15/03
Posts: 1826
Re: TD 8? new [Re: NHDiane]
      #108564 - 09/14/07 03:50 AM

Quote:

Ric, Yes, I'm sure NOAA knows a lot more than our Boston stations! Located where you are I have no doubt that you are an expert as well. So that said, I'll continue to keep my eye on it! I didn't know that a Cat 5 storm ever hit SBH..how long ago was that and what the hell did you do? Head to Vitet?




I think it was '98 or '99, around November 20 (yes, November), a strange TS formed in the Gulf of Mexico & traveled east through Puerto Rico (yep, east), then straight to Saba, St. Barths and St. Martin, before turning south southeast and heading to Granada. It was a Cat 4, then a Cat 5 while it wobbled slowly between SBH & SXM for roughly 38 hours or so. Not one single leaf left on any bush or tree on the entire Island. Small Hurricane, but intense.

Diane, since this thing came from the west, the best place to be on SBH was eastern side where I was. Hurricane Lenny is the one that robbed Shell Beach of shells & killed off the remaining donkeys left on Columbier from Hurricane Louis. First you have to be high up, way from water, then hopefully protected from all the landslides (look west from airport or north from Governeur next time there for landslides), and THEN stay out of the ferocious wind directions.

And yep, we lived through Hugo in Charleston as well, but we fled inland.

Ric


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KevinS



Reged: 07/23/03
Posts: 3415
Loc: Boston
Re: TS Irene new [Re: SELES]
      #108565 - 09/14/07 03:56 AM

Lenny was in November of '99. I went to SBH early that year, for the Le Select Jubilee, and was long gone when Lenny showed up.

Edited by KevinS (09/14/07 03:58 AM)


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