tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5955
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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I see that the rate has come down to the much better rate of $1.56/Euro. Currency experts, what say ye about the future trend?
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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its all tied into oil and the trade deficit.....follow that and you have your answers
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soyabeans
Reged: 02/11/08
Posts: 39
Loc: NYC
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Post deleted by tim
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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nnoska
Reged: 04/06/04
Posts: 1046
Loc: philadelphia/jersey shore
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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nnoska
Reged: 04/06/04
Posts: 1046
Loc: philadelphia/jersey shore
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nnoska
Reged: 04/06/04
Posts: 1046
Loc: philadelphia/jersey shore
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sorry to get off topic are there any deals on the island as i will be there in 2 weeks!
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Voosh
Reged: 01/14/07
Posts: 1640
Loc: Detroit
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Is it me or has anyone else noticed how gas/oil prices go down and the exchange rates drift favorably whenever oil companies announce record profits and there's a national election coming up?
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tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5955
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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Mes amis,
The deleted posts had to do with political comments from those posters. The discussion of partisan politics in the St. Barths Discussion Forum is prohibited. Those who wish to discuss partisan politics are welcomed to do so in the Everything Else Forum where most anything goes.
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andynap
Reged: 10/24/02
Posts: 12065
Loc: Philadelphia
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I was wondering.
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Andy -
St. Barts- where no day is ever the same and one day is not enough
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JimD
Reged: 05/16/04
Posts: 696
Loc: St Barts of Course
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You're a tough man Tim. :)
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Premium IV
St Barts
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soyabeans
Reged: 02/11/08
Posts: 39
Loc: NYC
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now that the euro broke the 153 level and is trading around the 150 level and is below the 200 "dma" the "chartists" say 140-145 is in the picture ....
thought this would be of interest......of course, now we are back in the US after "enjoying" the 156 level.....the market sells off
Edited by soyabeans (08/08/08 09:17 AM)
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tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5955
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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soyabeans,
I had to wire over a pile of euros into my St. Barth checking account a couple of weeks ago to cover local expenses, exchange rate around 1.56. I could start a service advising people on money exchange. Watch me and do the opposite. :-(
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Voosh
Reged: 01/14/07
Posts: 1640
Loc: Detroit
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I guess if you're dealing with billions in currency those fractional swings can make a difference. IMHO
I'll still take the exchange rate at the Match for my humble conversion needs.
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soyabeans
Reged: 02/11/08
Posts: 39
Loc: NYC
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Tim, guess everyone should follow your transfers and my vacation times in SBH and then wait for better rates
Edited by soyabeans (08/08/08 09:49 AM)
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Skateboard Phil
Reged: 11/04/02
Posts: 763
Loc: Chevy Chase, Md.
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Latest update-
Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate
By Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most in almost eight years against the dollar as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.
The euro is poised for its biggest weekly loss since January 2005 after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. An index that tracks the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners touched the highest since February. Crude oil fell to a three-month low.
``This is the beginning of a new chapter for the dollar as Trichet and other central banks are paying more attention to the downside risk to growth,'' said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``The decline of oil prices is a significant driver behind this dollar rally because it enables other central banks to turn their eyes away from inflation and focus on growth.''
The euro declined 1.95 percent to $1.5032 at 10:23 a.m. in New York and reached $1.5005, the lowest level since Feb. 27, from $1.5325 yesterday. It dropped as much as 2.08 percent, the biggest one-day drop since Sept. 6, 2000. Against the yen, the European currency traded at 165.84, from 167.70. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 109.97 yen after touching 110.08, the strongest since Jan. 10.
Moving Average
The euro's decline below $1.53 and the break of the 200-day moving average at $1.5226 ``marks a significant change in sentiment for the dollar,'' pointing to a further decline to $1.46, Kevin Edgeley, a London-based technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report today.
The euro has declined 3.1 percent against the dollar in its fourth weekly decline, the worst losing streak since May 2007. Against the yen, the U.S. currency has advanced 2.1 percent, heading for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months.
``The most important aspect of the dramatic collapse in the euro dollar is the absence of confirmation from other markets,'' said David Woo, global head of currency strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in London. ``None of the typical drivers of the euro-dollar in the past couple of years could have accounted for the magnitude of this move, which leads one to conclude that this is a technical driven move.''
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Skate La Tourmente
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Voosh
Reged: 01/14/07
Posts: 1640
Loc: Detroit
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Like I said, fractional changes don't mean diddley. Gimme a 1:1 and I'll be a pig in s--t. Where's a franc when ya need one?
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georgedp
Reged: 06/22/04
Posts: 2772
Loc: Beautiful hunterdon county new...
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I had one of my principal buyers in Spain phone me early this morning in a panic, wanting to hedge their contract for commodities they bought from the usa seller that I represent in usd and have it converted to euros. We hedged 60% of their contract some time ago at usd 1.585 per euro and they decided to gamble with the rest of it. Today's hedge for the balance of the contract is usd 1.4710 per euro. In retrospect I suppose they should not have gambled. ouch - BTW that usd 1,4710 per euro hedge is an average for deliveries of their commodities from april through september 2009 which may give one an idea of the sentiment of the market place.
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tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5955
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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1.46 in the St. Barth "News" today. How low can it go?
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georgedp
Reged: 06/22/04
Posts: 2772
Loc: Beautiful hunterdon county new...
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Quote:
1.46 in the St. Barth "News" today. How low can it go?
There was an article in Bloomberg a few days ago, they interviewed a number of "experts" in several countries and the concensus seemed to be a trading range of usd 1.40-1.45 per euro for second half of 2009. Not much concensus for balance of 2008 and first half of 2009. Some were of the opinion that the euro had one more last hurrah on the upside while others felt otherwise. Who knows!!
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andynap
Reged: 10/24/02
Posts: 12065
Loc: Philadelphia
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Quote:
1.46 in the St. Barth "News" today. How low can it go?
I was hoping 1:1 in January. :)
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Andy -
St. Barts- where no day is ever the same and one day is not enough
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snakemtn
Reged: 05/07/04
Posts: 44
Loc: Vermont, US
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How does one set up a St. Barths checking account?
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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one doesnt in the post 9/11 era....we did it back in 2000 as a hedge, which worked out VERY well, and it was pretty easy....but I hear you need tons of paperwork now and everything is scrutinized to the max...
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tim
Moderator
Reged: 06/18/03
Posts: 5955
Loc: Vélo, Virginia, Vitet
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snake,
I agree with MikeR. Even if you could do it, I can't imagine it's worth the trouble.
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The best moderation is the least moderation.
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lambchop1101
Reged: 07/27/07
Posts: 892
Loc: New Orleans, USA
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holy euro, batman....that's very cool!!!
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"breathe it in, breathe it out. this is the only moment you can do anything about."
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Voosh
Reged: 01/14/07
Posts: 1640
Loc: Detroit
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This probably belongs in the EE thread.
After many years in "bidness", I ask, why does it seem that playing around with rules and regulations is more lucrative than making something, building something, growing something?
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AHowell
Reged: 04/07/04
Posts: 699
Loc: Indianapolis, IN
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This question had me lying awake late... first wondering why not just bring back and hold onto say 1000 Euros (your saving account in your freezer type deal)... and then I ran the numbers if I had done this in 2004 (1.30 exchange rate) until now (say 1.55), I'd have made $250 over 4 years on my $1300 which is about 20% or just 5% a year, which is really not that great...
LOL Yea, I was clearly not really sleepy.
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NYCFred
Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6085
Loc: NYC
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<<.but I hear you need tons of paperwork now and everything is scrutinized to the max...>>>
Well, of course.
It's NOT like it's YOUR MONEY, or anything.
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I go for the Q-tips.
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fins85258
Reged: 05/02/05
Posts: 1082
Loc: Scottsdale, Az
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Quote:
Quote:
1.46 in the St. Barth "News" today. How low can it go?
I was hoping 1:1 in January. :)
Some historical data to digest:
date exchange rate
9/03 1.1
1/04 1.25
1/05 1.32
1/06 1.18
1/07 1.3
1/08 1.45
today 1.50
http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/a47n33d01.htm
Then add this article on currencies and oil prices to the mix.
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