andynap
Reged: 10/24/02
Posts: 12063
Loc: Philadelphia
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For what it's worth, this season is now predicted to be one of the worst hurricane seasons ever. I say for what it's worth because they are 50 % wrong all the time.
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Andy -
St. Barts- where no day is ever the same and one day is not enough
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
For what it's worth, this season is now predicted to be one of the worst hurricane seasons ever. I say for what it's worth because they are 50 % wrong all the time.
Given the notorious track record of pretty much all these guys (except the fellow at Penn State), I am going to predict this to be a wimpy hurricane season. Oh, it wont be as wimpy as last year's Armageddon Mother Of All Hurricane Seasons, but wimpy nonetheless.
Let's reconvene this post in November and if The Experts prove to be correct, I'll tip my hat to them. If I prove to be correct, they will come up with some other BS excuse about how global warming actually made the seas more warm and stable thereby giving us a wimpy season.
When science becomes the beyotch of politics, it ceases to be science
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Man it's getting cold!
I just checked NOAA's map, updated through April. As we all know, the average temperature in the US over the last few years has started to fall BELOW historic averages. April was positively frigid by historic standards. Only the Rockies were slightly warmer than historic norms in April. May data not in yet, obviously.
Damn that Global Warming!
Of course, I have been admonished before in this site that the US is not the rest of the world and that the rest of the world is incinerating even as we build our snowmen.
But I remain a skeptic. Or, is that A Denier?
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KevinS
Reged: 07/23/03
Posts: 3397
Loc: Boston
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Here's one for you IV:
Study: Killer hurricanes thrived in cooler seas
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Thanks Kevin.
If the earth was the size of a basketball, the sun would be 1.5 miles away. The surface temperature of the sun is 10,000 degrees fahrenheit and the sun sends energy through space with a temperature of less than 300 degrees below fahrenheit.
This energy hits our planet which is mostly molten lava with a very, very thin rim of hardened crust we call "surface". Again, assuming the earth is the size of a basketball, our atmosphere is as thick as two credit cards stacked on top of other - in other words, less than one eighth of an inch thick. And this thin rim (less than one eighth of an inch of "air" covering a basketball) is exposed to sunlight, 300 degree below zero space and a very thin crust of cooled surface surrounding molten lava. Even so, this thin wisp of air maintains a temperature within a few degrees for EONS on end. Damn!
So when I see people who acknowledge that THOUSANDS of ice ages have occured since the earth cooled and that the periodicity of these is ten thousand to a hundred thousand years and then I examine the numbers given and watch supposedly sensible people run around like chickens with their heads cut off talking about "global warming" I am reminded of a Far Side cartoon with Grog and Og looking at the stars and saying "Urg".
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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there is a natural warming period occuring
AND
man is spewing gases into the atmosphere which is also warming us up
those occurences in and by themselves probably would create a minor fluctuation in temperatures
those occurences in conjunction with one another creates the mess we currently have now...and with no history of those two occurences ever happening at the same time before...that we know of.....we are currently in uncharted waters...with consequences we can no longer predict on either side with any deree of accuracy...all bets are off
an idiot can figure this out......but until we are all on the same page...and as long as we are polarized......there wont be a solution
but hey.....keep arguing
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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So, your argument is thus:
1. You acknowledge there have been thousands of ice ages
2. You acknowledge we are coming out of an ice age
3. You acknowledge that the earth has been both colder and warmer than it is now
4. You acknowledge that at least twice (the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs 64m years ago and the supervolcano eruption in sumatra 74k years ago) the earth has had FAR more "pollutants" thrown in the sky than any other known time, both times plunging into "nuclear winters".
5. You acknowledge that "the steady rise in temperature over the last 30 years" has NOT been steady
6. You acknowledge that "the steady rise in temperature" follows on the heals on an "equally alarming" steady fall in temperature (see the issue of Time magazine from 1974 that I have linked numerous times to this site)
Even with all that, you look at this situation and say "this time it's different".
KNOWING what we know about how the earth heats and cools periodically and has done so since the great condensation (600 million years ago) it is at minimum presumptuous if not outright preposterous to attribute "an alarming one degree rise" in temperature over a hundred years to our activity, particularly since much of that rise came before our activity should have caused it.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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I've said what I ve said....do with it what you want
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Sorry about the bank holiday. Maybe it will be warmer in June or July.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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you wont hear me complaining one bit..Ill be in shorts and a T shirt while on skis this weekend...life is good
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
you wont hear me complaining one bit..Ill be in shorts and a T shirt while on skis this weekend...life is good
I'll drive the Expedition around a little extra today to make sure you are comfy. The gas is expensive, but what they heck? You're worth it.
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JackR
Reged: 10/10/02
Posts: 976
Loc: North Shore
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Speaking as one confined to our lovely back yard. The weather has been great. There are lovely smells of iris and other blossoms waifing thru.
On a serious not though
The actual cause of global warming is...............THE SUN.
And random kinetic energy
JAck
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