Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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I realize this is in the "for whatever its worth" category....and that they were wrong last year...but the fact of the matter is they are right more years then they are wrong....and this is the latest of what they are saying
for whatever its worth
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17928737/
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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I am predicting that nineteen major hurricanes will hit Redonda.
Sorry to be the harbinger of bad tidings.
If my prediction turns out to be right, you can all genuflex at my brilliance. If it turns out to be wrong, I can blame it on El Nino and claim to have been too stupid to account for that in my predictions. Hey, that excuse worked like a charm when last year's Armageddon Season died with hardly a burp!
Nineteen! RUN CHILDREN RUN!
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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But thanks for the warning. I'll file it in my drawer after the folder entitled Hot Dotbomb Stock Tips.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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they are the first to admit this is not an exact science and therefore it is what it is...they do base both hurricane predictions and winter weather patterns on the presence and strength of El Nino and La Nina which are two very fickle ocean currents.....they nailed this winter with the precsion of a surgeon right down to the month...they said December would be a brutal month and the spring would be very warm and dry...cudos to them for that.....does that mean because they nailed this winter that they will nail the summer as well??..who knows???...does it mean anything that when they get the winter patterns correct, as they have this winter, they generally get the hurricane pattern correct as well???..who knows?....but they certainly have enough credibility in my book that its worth at least knowing what they are thinking
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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The only guy you should ever pay attention to is the fellow out of Penn State. Before last season, he said it would be a wimpy year and he was proven right.
They always have him on The Weather Channel as big storms approach. He is entertaining and almost always Spot On correct about where the storms will hit.
But, here is the Long Story Short: For as long as can be measured, hurricanes have run in cycles of about thirty years. That is one of the reasons the last 15 - 20 years have seemed so bad - they followed a 30 year quiet cycle.
We are slap dab in the middle of the bad part of the thirty year cycle, ergo my shocking predictions for the seabirds and mullosks of Redonda.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
..who knows?....but they certainly have enough credibility in my book...
By being completely wrong last year?
Refresh my memory: You like to bet cash money on sports, n'est pas?
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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oh my head!!..LOL ....they are right way more then they are wrong...and last years season was defined as "normal"- not "wimpy" - which would technically make both sides wrong.....do whatever you like with the informations as will I - and everyone else who's lives are impacted by the results of their preditions....LOL
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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No major storm made landfall in the United States in 2006. That, mon ami, is defined as Wimpy on The Armageddon Hurricane Scale. Indeed, there can be no more Wimpy a season than that. Even so, it is always good to provide info when you find it. So the messanger here is welcome.
Memo to me: If I am in the Caribbean or near a coast and a hurricane approaches, run. Miker has warned us. And I thank him for it.
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andynap
Reged: 10/24/02
Posts: 12064
Loc: Philadelphia
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QUOTE:" they said December would be a brutal month and the spring would be very warm and dry..."
Maybe where you live- it was the opposite here.
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Andy -
St. Barts- where no day is ever the same and one day is not enough
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Jan and Feb were in the lower one third of temps over the last 113 years. What does that prove?
That Jan and Feb were in the lower one thirds of temps over the last 113 years.
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Dennis
Reged: 04/05/04
Posts: 3118
Loc: Chicago
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Quote:
QUOTE:" they said December would be a brutal month and the spring would be very warm and dry..."
Maybe where you live- it was the opposite here.
December was downright autumnal and here's this Saturdays forecast:
Sat
Apr 7 Flurries
33°/22° 30%
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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We have our usual March:
It was cold until it got hot and now it is going to get cold again but before long it will get hot again.
Interesting fact: Augusta National has TWO teams of horticulturalists. One maintains the greens and fairways. The other maintains all the azeleas around the fairways. Those two guys are Clemson grads. If it does get as cold as they are predicting this weekend, perhaps those fellows wont have to rap the azeleas in ice the way they sometimes do to get that bloom just right.
Say what you will, but come Masters Time, the azeleas of Augusta WILL be in full bloom.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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I just rechecked the data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration for Jan and Feb of this year. I looked at the lower forty eight. I did not count hawaii and alaska.
For the lower 48 here is what we saw in Jan/Feb compared to average temps (over the last 113 years):
1. 32 states had a mean average temperature that was neither one of the warmest 38 Jan/Febs of the last 113 years or one of the coldest 38 Jan/Febs of the last 113 years. In other words, average.
2. 16 states had a mean average temperature that was colder than normal (defined as one of the coldest 38 years over the last 113).
3. None of the lower 48 had a Jan/Feb that was among the warmest 38 Jan/Feb periods over the last 113 years.
Jan and Feb were cold.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Again, using NOAA data, here is a ranking of Januarys over the last 113 years, starting with the warmest:
1. 2006 - Oh no! We're gonna fry!
2. 1953 - Duh.
3. 1990 - Oh no! We're gonna fry!
4. 1934 - Duh
5. 1914 - Double Duh
6. 1998 - Oh no. We're gonna fry!
7. 1923 - Duh redux
8. 1933 - Reduhdant Duh
9. 1986 - That's because my wife and I started dating and heated the place up.
10 1921 Triple Duh
11 1900 I think you see Duh picture
Some years of interest and their ranks:
2007: 56
2005: 26
2004: 67
Long story short is that January has been COLD of late - with the exception of 2006. Who farted?
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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This February was the 79th warmest of the last 113 years (in other words, one of the coldest).
Freezing, just damn freezing!
And Feb 2006 was the 47th warmest, following the warmest January of the last 113 years.
Them's the facts. At least according to the government.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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Quote:
No major storm made landfall in the United States in 2006. That, mon ami, is defined as Wimpy on The Armageddon Hurricane Scale. Indeed, there can be no more Wimpy a season than that.
yes if you and the USA are the center of the universe then indeed it would be a wimpy season....but globally the meteorologist say it was a very normal season....
Andy..I realize that the east coast was unusually warm...believe me my wallet felt it.....I was refering to out here where the weather guys got it right....
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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There are only about two places on earth that get major cyclones to come ashore with any regularity - the southeast US/Caribbean basin and the south pacific - indian ocean.
Can't vouch for the south pacific but the US/Caribbean basin enjoyed a Wimpy Season.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
yes if you and the USA are the center of the universe then indeed it would be a wimpy season....but globally the meteorologist say it was a very normal season....
Which essentially means that most places on the globe dont get major cyclones coming ashore with regularity.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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then I guess you know more then the meterologist...I'll be sure to tell them so they can check with you for future data interpretation...LMAO
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Since I did not go to The University Of Meteorology, I do not claim to have more knowledge than the fellow you quoted, The Meteorologist.
I just put up some government data and pointed out the lack of major cyclonic activity last year - which was widely reported in almost every newspaper on earth. I did not realize that a degree was required to read newspapers and government websites.
My bad.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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apology accepted
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Merci. And dont forget, I am on record as predicting 19 major storms for Redonda. So it is not as though I am painting an overly sanguine picture for nos amis d'Antilles here....
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KevinS
Reged: 07/23/03
Posts: 3397
Loc: Boston
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I hestitate to post this, but...
There is now officially more wind on this thread than occurred in any single 2006 tropical cyclone, whether it was major or minor, whether it was named or unnamed, whether it wandered into the Caribbean and/or out of the Caribbean, and whether or not it hit or missed CONUS.
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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I cant remember what I did an hour ago...so you are going to have to remind me of your prediction as the season unwinds...
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
I hestitate to post this, but...
There is now officially more wind on this thread than occurred in any single 2006 tropical cyclone, whether it was major or minor, whether it was named or unnamed, whether it wandered into the Caribbean and/or out of the Caribbean, and whether or not it hit or missed CONUS.
And what have we learned?
There may be some hurricanes this year.
Or maybe not.
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Ferrari1
Reged: 02/01/07
Posts: 58
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I saw that as well. We keep pretty close tabs on data, as we spend 6 months of the year "Living in The Cone Of Death" (Ft. Lauderdale). Darn, I just put in all new landscaping, too! Pray for a year like last year!
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Although Jawja is known as The Peach State, it is good old South Carolina that actually exports more peaches than any other state in the world.
On the heals of an unusually cold January and February this year, the upstate of South Carolina (peach country) endured RECORD cold temperatures over Easter - the coldest temps ever recorded for these dates.
Alas, it looks as though the peach crop has taken a major hit - for those of you who like peaches.
So far, 2007 is shaping up to be a cold year and if the peach crop is any indication, it may not be the friendliest growing season ever.
Eat More Beef!
We need the cow farts to keep us warm.
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Dennis
Reged: 04/05/04
Posts: 3118
Loc: Chicago
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Quote:
Eat More Beef!
We need the cow farts to keep us warm.
If we eat mo' beef, won't there be LESS cows around to supply the wind you crave?
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
Quote:
Eat More Beef!
We need the cow farts to keep us warm.
If we eat mo' beef, won't there be LESS cows around to supply the wind you crave?
You are obviously a City Slicker.
The reason you get more cows is because you raise more cattle for that beef.
Memo to Dennis: Dont take up farming.
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Dennis
Reged: 04/05/04
Posts: 3118
Loc: Chicago
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I was up for the Bruno Kirby (RIP) part but they wanted someone shorter...
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Today's Farming Joke - for Dennis.
Three men split a recent lottery prize with each man taking home ten million dollars. The television reporter interviewed the first man and asked him what he was going to do with his winnings. To this, the man replied that he would quit his job as a lawyer, buy a boat and sail around the caribbean.
The second man was asked the same question. He replied that he would quit his job as a doctor, give some of the money to charity, pay off his bills and then volunteer at the local homeless shelter for free.
When the third man, a farmer, was asked what he would do, he shrugged his shoulders and replied that he would go back to farming until the money ran out and then try to get a job.
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JEK
Moderator
Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 10661
Loc: Northern Virginia
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From my experience farmers are only happy when they are complaining. Too much rain: the crops drown. Too little rain: poor harvest. Everything perfect, great growing year with record production: glut on the market, low prices. The glass is always half empty and draining.
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Carnaval 2009: Mardi 24 Février 2009!!!!
JEK
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Quote:
From my experience farmers are only happy when they are complaining. Too much rain: the crops drown. Too little rain: poor harvest. Everything perfect, great growing year with record production: glut on the market, low prices. The glass is always half empty and draining.
Thank God we dont know any farmers in this website.
LOL
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SELES
Reged: 03/15/03
Posts: 1826
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Quote:
From my experience farmers are only happy when they are complaining. Too much rain: the crops drown. Too little rain: poor harvest. Everything perfect, great growing year with record production: glut on the market, low prices. The glass is always half empty and draining.
I am certan we would be happier if we were all farmers...unfortunately our environment led us astray & now we are physicians, lawyers, investment bankers, novelists, investors, meterologists, 'bikers', travel planners, writers and developers, ETC ETC ETC.
Quote:
From my experience we all are only happy when we are complaining. Too much rain: the crops drown. Too little rain: poor harvest. Everything perfect, great growing year with record production: glut on the market, low prices. The glass is always half empty and draining.
Ric -12
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Peut etre, mon ami.
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fins85258
Reged: 05/02/05
Posts: 1082
Loc: Scottsdale, Az
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Quote:
Quote:
From my experience farmers are only happy when they are complaining. Too much rain: the crops drown. Too little rain: poor harvest. Everything perfect, great growing year with record production: glut on the market, low prices. The glass is always half empty and draining.
Thank God we dont know any farmers in this website.
LOL
Guess what..............
The original family farm was located in Cades Cove, TN. The US government relieved us and our neighbors of said properties. They are now known as The Great Smokey Mountain National Park.
Former Farmer Fins
Carpet Baggers!
Edited by fins85258 (04/11/07 06:20 PM)
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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