St. Barts Discussion >> Storm Tracker

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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
CNN...it's gonna get worse...
      #73353 - 08/23/06 05:59 AM

CNN on Hurricanes...

the good news is, I live on the 6th floor....
the bad news is, a 30 ft storm surge will clobber my tomato plants, at the beach.

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: NYCFred]
      #73356 - 08/23/06 06:55 AM

Those who have pegged their "credibility" to this year's Armageddon Hurricane Season have to pray for several Cat 5s in the next two and a half months.

As for myself, I would just as soon see clear skies and calm seas.


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73361 - 08/23/06 07:21 AM

the tone of that article..if its the same one I read...was more that we are way overdeveloped along our coastline and that is why it will be a catastrophic event, then that killer storms are coming soon, for whatever reason....killer storms will come whether there is global warming or not...the wildcard here is the robust non stop developing in areas at or below sea level...that is what causes the billion dollar disasters here

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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JEKModerator
Moderator


Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 10661
Loc: Northern Virginia
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73362 - 08/23/06 07:28 AM

Quote:

the tone of that article..if its the same one I read...was more that we are way overdeveloped along our coastline and that is why it will be a catastrophic event, then that killer storms are coming soon, for whatever reason....killer storms will come whether there is global warming or not...the wildcard here is the robust non stop developing in areas at or below sea level...that is what causes the billion dollar disasters here




Mike has it right. Nice to have the voice of reason actively moderating the board again.

--------------------
Carnaval 2009: Mardi 24 Février 2009!!!!
JEK


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: JEK]
      #73364 - 08/23/06 07:31 AM

LOL....uh...yeah.... right...sure.....well Im back in Colorado at my desk job again...so stay tuned for a lot more "voice of reason" kaka...

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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JEKModerator
Moderator


Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 10661
Loc: Northern Virginia
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73365 - 08/23/06 07:34 AM

Quote:

LOL....uh...yeah.... right...sure.....well Im back in Colorado at my desk job again...so stay tuned for a lot more "voice of reason" kaka...




IV and Andy have been running amuck while you have been back East. We crave some adult supervision on this forum. We also crave some island news. Slow time for trip reports.

--------------------
Carnaval 2009: Mardi 24 Février 2009!!!!
JEK


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: JEK]
      #73367 - 08/23/06 07:58 AM

I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to know that if you build on the coast and hurricanes hit the coast...

R U N

There is no substitute.

As to how to pay for the cleanup of all these future messes, society will have to answer what roll government versus the private sector will play.

Developing...


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73368 - 08/23/06 08:02 AM

Miker is correct: Killer storms WILL come just as they always have.

If a killer storm hits an undeveloped shore and no one was there, will it be a killer storm?

No.

The rapid development of all the white sand surrounding our border is a guarantee that what otherwise would be a nonkiller Cat 5 WILL be a killer storm. I think we are all in agreement on that.

My comment was directed toward the hysteria that surrounded last year's storms and how Man Had Caused Them.


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73373 - 08/23/06 08:14 AM

man certainly didnt cause the storms...he might have contributed to them however....to what degree??...who knows???...but surely you cant pour untold amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere and NOT think there would be some sort of a cause and effect thing happening here on SOME level....unless you're an idiot....


its the rich who are craving property on our shorelines ...so I say....tax and insure the s**t out of them to help pay for the inevitable cleanup...they can afford it.... let them pay dearly and carry the burden for their little oceanview that they cant live without

so much for voice of reason eh>???....LOL

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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andynap



Reged: 10/24/02
Posts: 12063
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73374 - 08/23/06 08:17 AM

Here in Avalon NJ the homes on the dunes are over 5 million dollars and they keep tearing them down and building bigger ones. There is an uproar and picketing over the proposal by a local Potato Chip magnate who wants to tear down and double the house. What those homeowners don't want to hear is that they are wrecking the dunes and therefore the protection they give when a storm comes. They have been spoiled by no major storms for 25 years. They need a lesson in humility.

--------------------
Andy -
St. Barts- where no day is ever the same and one day is not enough












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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: andynap]
      #73375 - 08/23/06 08:27 AM

You two are on a roll. Merci. I'll just grab some lunch real quick because you guys seem to have this thread covered.

Props.


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: andynap]
      #73376 - 08/23/06 08:30 AM

Quote:

Here in Avalon NJ the homes on the dunes are over 5 million dollars and they keep tearing them down and building bigger ones. There is an uproar and picketing over the proposal by a local Potato Chip magnate who wants to tear down and double the house. What those homeowners don't want to hear is that they are wrecking the dunes and therefore the protection they give when a storm comes. They have been spoiled by no major storms for 25 years. They need a lesson in humility.




same exact scenario on the Cape....the arrogance is astounding.....the only difference out on the Cape is that someone was wise enough many years ago to sell most of the land which has the really big dunes to the National Park Services..which immediatley keeps the greedy little hands off of that land

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73377 - 08/23/06 08:41 AM

<<<They have been spoiled by no major storms for 25 years. They need a lesson in humility.>>>>

What they need is gap insurance, available but pricey, to cover what the fed flood ins won't....which, BTW, is currently 250K for house and contents.

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73378 - 08/23/06 08:42 AM

We're all just jealous because we can't get one of these big beachfront castles.

Be that as it may, I do think that the lion's share of rebuilding these homes should fall to the homeowners who live in them and enjoy the economic advantage of same.


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73382 - 08/23/06 09:33 AM

mon ami...the last thing I am is jealous....I give you my "summertime" day and evening view as evidence....its got more to do with being concerned with the big picture impact one has on where they choose to build a house, beyond their own narrow scope






--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73383 - 08/23/06 09:35 AM

Man, that's a lot of boats. What's going on? A fish fry?

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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73386 - 08/23/06 09:40 AM

I had them all over for a clam bake and a tupperware party

if you must know

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73390 - 08/23/06 10:50 AM

<<<I do think that the lion's share of rebuilding these homes should fall to the homeowners who live in them and enjoy the economic advantage of same. >>>

Well, living as i do in a National Seashore, my understanding is (and this policy may be confined to Fire Island) that if your house is over 50% destroyed, you can't rebuild.

Between the town, county, FINS, zoning, planning, DEC, etc etc, I need 7 permits to pee off the deck.

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: NYCFred]
      #73392 - 08/23/06 10:52 AM

Quote:


Between the town, county, FINS, zoning, planning, DEC, etc etc, I need 7 permits to pee off the deck.




Do you have a wetlands in your backyard?

That is, BEFORE you get all the proper permits?


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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73394 - 08/23/06 11:01 AM

Fire Island Nat Seashore Home Page.

Noted NY mega builder Robert Moses intended to continue Ocean Parkway (which runs 4 lanes thru the middle of the barrier islands fronting Long Island) right thru Fire Island....my predecessors, the homeowners of the time, wouldn't stand for it, petitioned Congress and BINGO!

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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Eric



Reged: 10/07/02
Posts: 679
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73395 - 08/23/06 11:05 AM

Quote:

its got more to do with being concerned with the big picture impact one has on where they choose to build a house, beyond their own narrow scope




Yeah the next thing you know they'll be building condos on your mountains out there

--------------------


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Eric]
      #73396 - 08/23/06 11:08 AM

Quote:

Quote:

its got more to do with being concerned with the big picture impact one has on where they choose to build a house, beyond their own narrow scope




Yeah the next thing you know they'll be building condos on your mountains out there





too late....already done....and still going on

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Eric]
      #73398 - 08/23/06 11:36 AM

<<<its got more to do with being concerned with the big picture impact one has on where they choose to build a house, beyond their own narrow scope>>>

Y'know, I've been losing sleep lately over my carbon footprint.

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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Mike R



Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15621
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: NYCFred]
      #73401 - 08/23/06 11:44 AM

Quote:

<<<its got more to do with being concerned with the big picture impact one has on where they choose to build a house, beyond their own narrow scope>>>

Y'know, I've been losing sleep lately over my carbon footprint.




just dont be steppin on no plovers there with that footprint Fred....LOL

--------------------
karma is a beautiful thing at times


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SELES



Reged: 03/15/03
Posts: 1826
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Mike R]
      #73408 - 08/23/06 12:53 PM

For the most part OCRM redraws critical lines (dead zones prohibiting building) and local governments with the OCRM establish setbacks from the critical line. If a house/structure is in a newly established dead zone, it is grandfathered, however if it is 50%+ condemned it generally cannot be built back there, only behind the critical line.

Hurricanes are hurricanes...they keep coming and so do we, all of us. Either as developers, builders, renters/vacationers or permanent dwellers.

I don't see much changing with the current number of US Sen/House members & State Sen/House members who own many of these properties. Duh, is an elected official self serving?

In all probability the Insurance Industry will have more to do with change over the coming years & decades. And only the MegaWealthy (and I mean megawealthy) will be able to hold onto properties on the beach. Currently on Sullivans Island many third generation owners are selling or considering selling...and they don't have mortgages. But they have to pay $15-40,000 annually for Insurance and another $15-30,000 annually in taxes. It's not cheap, but add a mortgage and you could be looking here at $40-50,000 per month carry.

Each of us has to be responsible, but most of us aren't.


Ric


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Island Visitor



Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: SELES]
      #73412 - 08/23/06 01:53 PM

Ouch.

Thanks for the scoop Rick. Suffice it to say that most of us who work (on those rare occasions that we aren't in this site) might feel a bit pinched trying to make a $40,000 a month payment.

I enjoy the coast and have rented on the SC coast for over a decade. It is a wonderful place that I hope to visit for many, many decades to come.


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NYCFred



Reged: 01/06/04
Posts: 6083
Loc: NYC
Re: CNN...it's gonna get worse... new [Re: Island Visitor]
      #73631 - 08/25/06 03:33 AM

<<<We're all just jealous because we can't get one of these big beachfront castles.>>>>

Har!
try old-school beach shack...uninsulated....1x6's over studs, prob 40 years old at this point with a big damn deck.....paint the inside white, add 2 wet dogs, 2 daughters + male companions that need to be fedand beered, wife+ many friends in a great town and there you have my summer weekends.

--------------------
I go for the Q-tips.


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