Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Looks like it will skirt St Barts and the Leewards, perhaps just barely missing those isles later today.
Following the tracking reports, this looks like the classic track of a hurricane that ends up hitting somewhere between charleston and the outer banks.
With winds at 120 currently, let's keep a CLOSE eye on this one.
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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I'd appreciate it if you kept this one well south of your location and that you not mention "Frances" and the "Outer Banks" in the same posting - thereby inducing bad Karma for Duck, Corolla, Kitty Hawk, et als. Frances is looking like a very dangerous storm.
Bob in Virginia
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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This kind of storm always worries me because I have friends all along the track mentioned. I think there is some kind of warm water or high pressure "wall" that exists in the carribean. If a storm slams into the caribbean sea further south on a straight line, it may continue on that straight line for its entire course. Or it may curve northward as it nears or enters the gulf. On the other hand, storms that skim the northern part of the islands seem to "bounce off a wall" of high pressure and continue to skirt the northern parts of these islands. When they do that, they often take a BIG turn to the north as they get near the bahamas and make a beeline for the carolinas.
If you looked at a tracking map, there are probably more excpetions to this rule than there are storms that follow this rule. Even so, this is the track that some storms take before throwing a "curveball" as they approach the US and heading to the carolinas.
Hopefully this storm fizzles or starts blowing WAY north soon. Right now, I am concerned.
And, the fact that few of my predictions in life ever come true means that by me predicting this to happen, I have provided PROTECTIVE mojo to the carolinas.
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Kara Brooks
Reged: 09/30/02
Posts: 1394
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Live from St. Barths: Just heard from Rosita that all the boats have been pulled out of the water in anticipation of Frances (Jean Paul's new boatyard is completely full).
We'll keep our fingers crossed that Frances stays far away from SBH & OBX!
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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I just hate hurricanes that come in with this shallow north by northwest approach to the northern caribbean. If you go back and look at the thirty deadliest or costliest hurricanes to hit the US and concentrate on the carolinas, here is what you find:
Hurricane of 1893 - a little north but still "throws the curve" as it approaches
Unnamed storm from 1940 - skimmed the islands and curved
Floyd, the classic Northern Curveball storm
Hazel - an exception that came from the Caribbean
Fran, another skimmer that throws the curve
Hugo, another curve-throwing skimmer - that actually hit the Leewards
These are just SELECTED storms out of a huge number of Atlantic storms but they illustrate a point: When bad stuff hits the carolinas, it often assumes the path that Francis is currently on. That is, these are the worst storms to hit the carolinas and, with the exception of Hazel, they all look not too different from Frances.
Francis
Edited by Island Visitor (08/30/04 09:58 AM)
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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Thanks for the Protective Mojo. We are about to get our share of the remainder of Gustav, and Frances looks so much worse.
There is a good forecast map here:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none
Good luck to Rosita, Andy and all of our friends on the island.
Bob in Virginia
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Agree. From what I have seen, it APPEARS that the brunt of this will miss our friends on St Barts. Let us hope that occurs.
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TMinatra
Reged: 03/23/03
Posts: 159
Loc: Johnson City, Tennessee
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live report: from haute maison, colombier, st. barth: its after 7 pm monday evening. (they won"t tell me the actual time as i am tracking my worry paths with reported times of whats the hap>
we have candles, water, wine (not necessarily in quantitative order) and are about to grill tournadeos de bouef. we may blow away, but at least we will be happy. someone promise to go check on my puppies. joyce needs advice on the perfect hurricane wine. rosita, i left your numbers at home--let me know how i can reach you
"(hopefully not at the shelters at gustavia or lorient)
the team
)
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stbartslover
Reged: 02/09/03
Posts: 863
Loc: Ann Arbor. Flamands Blue
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7pm spoke to our Manager who recently returned from SB weather station: forecast max 100 km winds about 3am from Gustavia side of the Island. Major concern is swells---waves up to 5m. Typically they shut down power to avoid live down lines about midnight. Airport shuttered today about 2 & planes to Guadaleupe. Boats either out of the water or to the protected lagoon in SM. Rental cars up the hillsides in the parking area by Feelings & elsewhere. A few Hurricane parties (inside) I'm told...
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JackR
Reged: 10/10/02
Posts: 976
Loc: North Shore
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This posting has world's colliding for me. We are headed to buxton NC (Thats where the cape hatteras light house it) on sat though we may wait until sunday to see if its still there.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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It looks as though Frances has missed St Barths. A mes amis, je voudrais dire "Tres bien. Avez de beau temps et calme mer".
But this storm REALLY has me worried about the carolinas. The Professionals, the guys who get paid to forecast, are projecting South Florida as the most likely target and I urge everyone to pay attention. Even so, my gut thought is that this thing is going to turn north near the bahamas and head for the carolinas. Could be wrong. I am not a weather forecaster and I have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in years. But this just has "The Look" of the type of storm that gets the carolinas.
developing...
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Kara Brooks
Reged: 09/30/02
Posts: 1394
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Here is the latest on Frances:
Hurricane Frances brushed past several Caribbean islands on its way toward the Bahamas and Florida while, further north, Tropical Storm Gaston was moving out to sea after leaving a trail of damage in Virginia and South Carolina.
Frances was 125 miles (205 kilometers) north of the island of St. Martin, moving west through the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a bulletin at 5 a.m. Washington time. The Bahamas issued a hurricane watch for its southeastern islands, meaning hurricane-force winds may be felt within 36 hours.
Frances is expected to reach Florida on Saturday. It is a category three hurricane with 125 mile-an-hour winds, capable of blowing down large trees and destroying mobile homes. Gaston caused flooding and cut off power in Virginia.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for several northern Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, Anguilla and some of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch, indicating a less immediate threat, was in place for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and St. Croix.
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Kara Brooks
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TMinatra
Reged: 03/23/03
Posts: 159
Loc: Johnson City, Tennessee
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bon jour my posting friends,
morning light finds higher than usual waves (one hopeful with a board in the cove in front of haute) and heavy cloud cover. rains during the night, and winds, but nothing out of place on this end of the island to indicate higher than usual winds or rains, vegetation intact, no overturned furniture. workers back at it on kercliff, all reminders that the rhythms of life continue.
we'll update more after lunch at the town square! and btw, we discovered a red sancerre with sunset bruchetta started our hurricane party off rather well; progressing to the chatueau selen phegur sainte estephe with the beef. thank god there was no vanilla or lemongrass rhum in the house.
your live reporter in st. bart,
terri
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Kara Brooks
Reged: 09/30/02
Posts: 1394
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Thanks for the live updates Terri. Glad to hear that the lovely Haute Maison came through Frances unscathed. During Hurricane Lenny two families apparently rode out the storm in the "cave" which is located right below Haute - that would be some close quarters.
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Kara Brooks
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TMinatra
Reged: 03/23/03
Posts: 159
Loc: Johnson City, Tennessee
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the watch is off. its' overcast a bit and waves are settling down. we've heard the road through corrosol is closed due to wind mischief, lines down, trees, etc. but we made it to and from bakery with no trouble. we continue to monitor the waves from the deck, wine in hand.
the team
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Cheri
Reged: 10/13/02
Posts: 1681
Loc: St. Louis, Missouri
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Terri, thanks for the live reports. Hopefully the worst is over.....have a great rest of your trip!
Cheri
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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The current, Tuesday afternoon, projections for Frances are already builing into their models "The Curve" that would put this ugly storm smack dab on the carolina's coast.
I dont like this. I dont like this at all.
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jugghead23
Reged: 06/24/03
Posts: 233
Loc: Lehigh Valley PA
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tell me about it, my wife and I leave for Corolla friday around lunch time. This is the reason I never go this time of year (and the last time I will be talked into it).
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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...with several days left before it hits the US (assuming it does not veer drastically north).
This could be bad, real bad.
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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I'll be in Duck this weekend, so perhaps we will be evacuating together. Whatever this storm hits is going to sustain a lot of damage. Let it not visit Richmond which had 14 inches of rain yesterday thanks to Gustav. More on topic, I heard from Rosita today and she described the conditions on the island as windy and messy.
Bob in Virginia
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GAker
Reged: 04/19/03
Posts: 43
Loc: Indialantic, Fl
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IV, I can appreciate your concern for a posssible Carolina curve, but think how we feel here on the east Central Florida coast. Most projections take it extremely close to where we are, if not a direct hit! Sure does break up the monotony though.
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JackR
Reged: 10/10/02
Posts: 976
Loc: North Shore
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Wow Jugghead 23 in corolla, Bob in Duck and us in Buxton hopefully we won't have a St Barth meeting under a rain tarp on the OBX.
As for our Florida friends I would begin to worry a bit about those folks. We'll be thinking and praying for them as francis comes ashore.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Gaker: I certainly am mindful of our florida friends and hope this thing just blows out into the atlantic, though that does not appear likely.
This thing is a Cat 4 right now and aimed directly at the US between florida and the carolinas. Everyone needs to keep close tabs on this one and EVACUATE EARLY if the call goes out.
Hopefully it misses us altogether.
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mrst
Reged: 02/18/04
Posts: 88
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IV - NY Times has an interesting map today that shows the tracks of all the hurricanes that started out following the same path as Frances. "Of the 14 storms since 1920 that stayed north of Puerto Rico, 11 made landfall on the coast of the United states and of those, 5 hit Florida." Let's hope Frances turns north like Bertha did in '96!
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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Best of luck to you, GAker. Right now you are very close to the projected strike point. I hope by Monday this storm has swerved out to sea and that all of us on the southeast coast are unaffected. In fact, tonight I'll drink a vanilla rum to that for good luck.
Bob in (coastal) Virginia
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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mrst: Thanks for the scoop. I looked at the worst hurricanes to hit the carolinas and, with the expection of hazel, they have all pretty much followed the same course as Frances.
Hopefully this thing fizzles and doesn't cause too much mischief.
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rosita
Reged: 06/11/03
Posts: 294
Loc: st-barthelemy
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the Hurricane Frances give us a chance....hope will give you all the same....thanks to all your warm support in the forum
thanks to love st-barth like a do
Rosita
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GAker
Reged: 04/19/03
Posts: 43
Loc: Indialantic, Fl
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Bob, right now we ARE the projected strike point. Our only hope here is the lack of accuracy with past hurricanes.
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 766
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Lash yourself to the mast guys,,, Frances is coming ashore on you now,,, we are waiting for the tail to take a wack at us later tonight..........
Martin
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 766
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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UPDATE,,,, 24 hours later,,, it's still coming ashore.
Martin
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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I hope you guys in FLA all fared well through Frances.....in a bizarre coincidence to the other extreme.....we got up to 2 feet of snow dumped on us last night up over 10,000 feet....they actually fired up the lifts at Silverton and are letting the locals ski for free...
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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MartinS
Reged: 05/25/03
Posts: 766
Loc: Anna Maria Island, Florida.
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Mike, we want to come ski!!!!!
Frances is now about to go into the Gulf.
And,, batter up ! Ivan is on deck and already hitting homeruns with 125mph winds.
Martin
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You can rest when you're dead !!!
www.silentcaptain.com
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KevinS
Reged: 07/23/03
Posts: 3397
Loc: Boston
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Martin & Janine are obviously OK.
It would be nice to hear from Gaylord & Jill (GAker) too...
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NHDiane
Reged: 08/06/03
Posts: 841
Loc: New Hampshire
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Mike R - thought you might have been talking about NH for a split second, but 2 feet is still a little more than we get this "early"!! It was in the high 40's overnight here a few days ago. Still, it is a bit early even for Colorado, yes??? My concerns are with our Florida friends now. There seems to be no end to these storms, and the path they seem to be favoring. I now fear Ivan and the many beautiful islands in it's path. Latest puts is plowing right through the chain...including SBH. I love the Caribbean very much and pray for all the islands but my heart belongs to SBH. This is the first time in three years that we won't return in October...seems we made the right decision but I hate being right in this instance. Here's praying that Mother Nature spares SBH and changes course!
NOTE - latest forecast says it might go south of SBH and the islands nearby. 105 MPH winds
NH Diane
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NH Di
"Viva Vitet"
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Mike R
Reged: 05/26/03
Posts: 15623
Loc: Stinson Lake - New Hampshire
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Diane...Im talking out west with the snow and its actually right on time...we will have race camps going by the end of this month at many of the resorts although they wont be open to the public until probably third week of October or so.....60's todays, so we are losing the snow fast but....it wont be long.....the aspens are turning gold, the peaks are glistening white against a deep blue sky, and the amazing smell of wood smoke is in the air at night....and it cant come soon enough for us out here who live for the stuff....do you know what the official defintion out here is of high country summer????.... its a few months of bad skiing....LOL.....and yes this time of year is very tenious time for our Caribbean friends.....the line is certainly a thin one between those places that get destroyed and those that dont
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karma is a beautiful thing at times
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GAker
Reged: 04/19/03
Posts: 43
Loc: Indialantic, Fl
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KevinS-Thanks for thinking of us. Frances was one long and powerful storm. We stayed on the mainland (about 4 blocks from the intercoastal) at our business where we lost our roof. We spent sunday and monday cleaning. When we were allowed to go over to the beach to our home-Wednesday we were glad to see no major damage to our house. It's strange to see what was once lush now stripped of everything. But this is the tropics and we'll be cutting plants back in no time! Jill
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