Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Looks like it will skirt St Barts and the Leewards, perhaps just barely missing those isles later today.
Following the tracking reports, this looks like the classic track of a hurricane that ends up hitting somewhere between charleston and the outer banks.
With winds at 120 currently, let's keep a CLOSE eye on this one.
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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I'd appreciate it if you kept this one well south of your location and that you not mention "Frances" and the "Outer Banks" in the same posting - thereby inducing bad Karma for Duck, Corolla, Kitty Hawk, et als. Frances is looking like a very dangerous storm.
Bob in Virginia
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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This kind of storm always worries me because I have friends all along the track mentioned. I think there is some kind of warm water or high pressure "wall" that exists in the carribean. If a storm slams into the caribbean sea further south on a straight line, it may continue on that straight line for its entire course. Or it may curve northward as it nears or enters the gulf. On the other hand, storms that skim the northern part of the islands seem to "bounce off a wall" of high pressure and continue to skirt the northern parts of these islands. When they do that, they often take a BIG turn to the north as they get near the bahamas and make a beeline for the carolinas.
If you looked at a tracking map, there are probably more excpetions to this rule than there are storms that follow this rule. Even so, this is the track that some storms take before throwing a "curveball" as they approach the US and heading to the carolinas.
Hopefully this storm fizzles or starts blowing WAY north soon. Right now, I am concerned.
And, the fact that few of my predictions in life ever come true means that by me predicting this to happen, I have provided PROTECTIVE mojo to the carolinas.
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Kara Brooks
Reged: 09/30/02
Posts: 1394
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Live from St. Barths: Just heard from Rosita that all the boats have been pulled out of the water in anticipation of Frances (Jean Paul's new boatyard is completely full).
We'll keep our fingers crossed that Frances stays far away from SBH & OBX!
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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I just hate hurricanes that come in with this shallow north by northwest approach to the northern caribbean. If you go back and look at the thirty deadliest or costliest hurricanes to hit the US and concentrate on the carolinas, here is what you find:
Hurricane of 1893 - a little north but still "throws the curve" as it approaches
Unnamed storm from 1940 - skimmed the islands and curved
Floyd, the classic Northern Curveball storm
Hazel - an exception that came from the Caribbean
Fran, another skimmer that throws the curve
Hugo, another curve-throwing skimmer - that actually hit the Leewards
These are just SELECTED storms out of a huge number of Atlantic storms but they illustrate a point: When bad stuff hits the carolinas, it often assumes the path that Francis is currently on. That is, these are the worst storms to hit the carolinas and, with the exception of Hazel, they all look not too different from Frances.
Francis
Edited by Island Visitor (08/30/04 09:58 AM)
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Bob
Reged: 10/04/02
Posts: 370
Loc: Southeast Virginia
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Thanks for the Protective Mojo. We are about to get our share of the remainder of Gustav, and Frances looks so much worse.
There is a good forecast map here:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none
Good luck to Rosita, Andy and all of our friends on the island.
Bob in Virginia
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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Agree. From what I have seen, it APPEARS that the brunt of this will miss our friends on St Barts. Let us hope that occurs.
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TMinatra
Reged: 03/23/03
Posts: 159
Loc: Johnson City, Tennessee
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live report: from haute maison, colombier, st. barth: its after 7 pm monday evening. (they won"t tell me the actual time as i am tracking my worry paths with reported times of whats the hap>
we have candles, water, wine (not necessarily in quantitative order) and are about to grill tournadeos de bouef. we may blow away, but at least we will be happy. someone promise to go check on my puppies. joyce needs advice on the perfect hurricane wine. rosita, i left your numbers at home--let me know how i can reach you
"(hopefully not at the shelters at gustavia or lorient)
the team
)
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stbartslover
Reged: 02/09/03
Posts: 863
Loc: Ann Arbor. Flamands Blue
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7pm spoke to our Manager who recently returned from SB weather station: forecast max 100 km winds about 3am from Gustavia side of the Island. Major concern is swells---waves up to 5m. Typically they shut down power to avoid live down lines about midnight. Airport shuttered today about 2 & planes to Guadaleupe. Boats either out of the water or to the protected lagoon in SM. Rental cars up the hillsides in the parking area by Feelings & elsewhere. A few Hurricane parties (inside) I'm told...
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JackR
Reged: 10/10/02
Posts: 976
Loc: North Shore
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This posting has world's colliding for me. We are headed to buxton NC (Thats where the cape hatteras light house it) on sat though we may wait until sunday to see if its still there.
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Island Visitor
Reged: 12/19/02
Posts: 10396
Loc: Retraité
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It looks as though Frances has missed St Barths. A mes amis, je voudrais dire "Tres bien. Avez de beau temps et calme mer".
But this storm REALLY has me worried about the carolinas. The Professionals, the guys who get paid to forecast, are projecting South Florida as the most likely target and I urge everyone to pay attention. Even so, my gut thought is that this thing is going to turn north near the bahamas and head for the carolinas. Could be wrong. I am not a weather forecaster and I have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in years. But this just has "The Look" of the type of storm that gets the carolinas.
developing...
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Kara Brooks
Reged: 09/30/02
Posts: 1394
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Here is the latest on Frances:
Hurricane Frances brushed past several Caribbean islands on its way toward the Bahamas and Florida while, further north, Tropical Storm Gaston was moving out to sea after leaving a trail of damage in Virginia and South Carolina.
Frances was 125 miles (205 kilometers) north of the island of St. Martin, moving west through the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a bulletin at 5 a.m. Washington time. The Bahamas issued a hurricane watch for its southeastern islands, meaning hurricane-force winds may be felt within 36 hours.
Frances is expected to reach Florida on Saturday. It is a category three hurricane with 125 mile-an-hour winds, capable of blowing down large trees and destroying mobile homes. Gaston caused flooding and cut off power in Virginia.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for several northern Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, Anguilla and some of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch, indicating a less immediate threat, was in place for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and St. Croix.
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Kara Brooks
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